Final Predictions - Who Wins, Who Loses?

Since I have reviewed the entire set of groups, I figured it was high time to break down the rest of the tournament, including a pick as to who will win the Golden Boot as the top scorer. Since the World Cup basically has the most complicated post-Group stage seeding possible, it may take some effort to follow along here, especially since there aren't any good, fill-in-the-blank brackets I've found online. I'll try to make this as painless as possible.

Left Half of the Bracket
A Winner = Germany
B Runner Up = Sweden

C Winner = Netherlands
D Runner Up = Mexico

E Winner = Italy
F Runner Up = Croatia

G Winner = France
H Runner Up = Ukraine

Right Half of the Bracket
B Winner = England
A Runner Up = Poland

D Winner = Portugal
C Runner Up = Ivory Coast

F Winner = Brazil
E Runner Up = USA

H Winner = Spain
G Runner Up = Switzerland

Round of 16 Matchups

Germany Vs. Sweden
See what I mean about this World Cup being much tougher than in years past? Right out of the gate, the host nation face a very dangerous opponent in Sweden. Can Zlatan go all Zlatan on ze Germans and knock the home squad right out of the cup in the round of 16? I think a lot of it will depend on the health of Michael Ballack and whether or not the Germans can find a scoring punch in 2006 like Klose gave them in 2002 (see also: Lucas Podolski). This one could go either way, especially with a hostile crowd of 60,000 Krauts screaming for blood, but I think the Swedes finally show their skill and send the Germans crashing out.

About "Krauts": My buddy Tybuc refuses to call his ancestors by any other name. Since he is the only fan actually rooting for Germany that I know, I feel at least modestly obliged to work in Kraut once per German game.

Netherlands vs. Mexico
Oddly enough, this was a friendly just a week ago where the Dutch won 2-1. I'm not sure who in either football association thought that was a sensible friendly to play, but play they did, giving them a nice preview of possibilities to come. Then again, maybe the Mexican side saw Group C and figured there was no way the Dutch were making it out alive... good beats, that.

This is actually one of the best matchups in the round of 16, and I'd be a lot more excited about it if they hadn't played the damned friendly. The rematch will probably be a bit rougher in the tackles than that one, but I'd expect the scoreline to look approximately the same. This prediction also holds true if it's Argentina to make it out of this Group instead of the Dutch.

Italy vs. Croatia

Italy's hopes require a dearth of spitting and all of Totti's limbs to stay in tact.

As I noted yesterday, Italy haven't lost since 2004. Assuming Totti doesn't do anything stupid during the Group stages and miss this match or have his leg come flying off while making a particularly exciting run, thus ending his World Cup run and causing rampant speculation about whether the whole incident was part of some Italian betting scandal, they aren't losing here. However, if Totti does lose a limb before or during this match or perhaps finds himself unable to control some involuntary response from his salivary glands, then a spry and underrated Croatian team should give them a run for their money. This is the match where Italian striking will really come under the microscope. I think they (finally) pass.

France vs. Ukraine
Old, talented and creaky vs. mostly old and creaky. I can't bet against France just yet, though a lethal Shevchenko could spell disaster for Zizou and the boys.

England vs. Poland
With how I have the Groups playing out, the right side of the bracket is certainly the sexier side of things, with England, Portugal, Brazil, and Spain all still dancing starboard. Of course, should anyone stumble and bit and finish second in their group instead of first, you will get a dramatically different picture of matchups in the round of 16, so whatever. This matchup isn't particularly spicy... though Poland on a good day or at home can be a scare for England, I don't see it happening here. England have too much power in the midfield and in the back, though we'll still have to wait and see whether England's strike force is lethal or merely footballing curiosity.

Portugal vs. Ivory Coast
The stone best matchup of the Top 16 pits one of the most exciting attacking Euro squads against one of the most exciting attacking African squads. This is an absolute pick em, and while I'd love to see Ivory Coast continue deep into the tournament, I think the Tugas just manage to pull this one out.

Brazil vs. USA
The only way the U.S. wins this game is if Kasey Keller reprises the game where he made Brazilian striker Romario say, "That is the best performance I have ever seen from a goalie in a match that I played in," while the U.S. managed to win 1-nil. This time, it will also require Eddie Johnson to finally learn how to stay onside and pull his Flash imitation, blistering past the aging Brazilian backs for 2 goals.

What? Skeptical? Alright fine... It could happen, but that possibility is based on a) The U.S. even making it out of the group stage and b) mostly wishful thinking. Too many weapons, too much firepower, too much Brazil in this one. It won't be a laugher, but they aren't losing it.

Oh, and if this is the Czechs instead of the U.S., it pits #1 vs. #2 in the FIFA rankings in the first knockout round. NICE SEEDING, people...

Spain vs. Switzerland
This is where qualification mindgames come into play. If Spain finish second in their group, they are over in the other half of the bracket playing France right here, setting up a snorer of a Ukraine vs. Switzerland match, while letting Spain avoid Brazil in the round of 8 in favor of taking their chances with Italy. I don't think that's a particularly worthwhile trade, especially since France is a tougher opponent to face than Switzerland.

Spain win this one on overall class and make it to the final 8.

Round of 8 Matchups

Sweden vs. Netherlands

Italy vs. France

England vs. Portugal

Brazil vs. Spain

Something to note here is that this is more Euro-centric than I anticipated. Recent trends in football suggest that there will be at least one more South American team in here and somebody from Africa or Asia will likely make it this far. You could obviously switch the Dutch with the Argies and satisfy the first condition, but the second requires Ivory Coast to beat Portugal or South Korea/Japan to at least make it out of the group stages and then beat a really good team in the first knockout round.

I'm not going to do any analysis on these picks, since they are far in the future and require a billion things to go right for them to happen. If this is the final 8, it will make for some absurd games to watch.

Round of 4 Matchups
Netherlands vs. Italy

England vs. Spain

Yep, I picked Spain to upset Brazil. I couldn't bring myself to be yet another person picking Brazil to make it all the way to the finals, and I think Spain have a real shot this year.

If this boy plays, England might go all the way.

The Finals
Italy vs. England

Winner: Italy.

Golden Boot: Fernando Torres. Wayne Rooney, if healthy, will be runner-up and Didier Drogba will be in the mix.

Regardless of what happens - enjoy the games. It will be a long four years before the next one comes around.

As for Football kNuts, you can continue to expect daily updates, including game analysis and the start of some statistical tracking that I think you won't find anywhere else (unless FIFA has been hiding them and finally decides to publish everything for the World Cup). If that is the case, expect me to merely do analysis on them, thus saving me about four extra hours of work a day.

(Please let that be the case.)