Thursday, June 29, 2006

Quarterfinal Predictions Part I

Before we get started on what just might be the greatest weekend in football, let me just say that I have generally loved the football in this World Cup. I have some complaints about the referees and how the rules of the game are being enforced and I think the game could be better on the field, but that doesn't mean I haven't enjoyed the last 3 weeks. Far from it, and I am particularly stoked about Friday and Saturday's action. There's even a chance ESPN won't shove Shep Messing down my throat on either day, which might just be cause for a national freaking holiday.

Germany vs. Argentina


Will it be Ballack...
The early game is of epic proportions, featuring two of the most successful countries in World Cup history, forced to do battle a full two rounds away from the final. It also features two of the most in-form teams at this Cup, which has fans everywhere hoping for fireworks. In fact, there are tremendous personnel matchups all over the pitch.

For starters, you have the two midfield generals and their pitbull defensive mids squaring off in a battle for central supremacy. We saw in the Champions League semifinal that a very good defensive midfielder is capable of marking Riquelme out of a game, but Villareal didn't have the weapons that Argentina does, and Torsten Frings will have his hands full for 90 solid minutes. For Germany, Ballack is likely too big and strong to be marked off the ball by just one man, but Mascherano has been tremendous thus far. Ballack's rumored to be having fitness troubles again, which could simplify the job.

Each team also has a tremendous wing midfielder that has powered their offense in the Cup thus far, and their play will be vital in determining which of these teams will win. Will it be Guy Ritchie star Bastian Schweinsteiger, or Adam Sandler lookalike Maxi Rodriguez? Hollywood couldn't script a confrontation this intriguing if they tried, and they wouldn't because American audiences would be turned off by the fact that this would be a foreign language film in both Spanish and German, and they'd need to read subtitles, which is a real pisser. Thankfully it's happening in real life, so we all win.


or Riquelme who comes out on top?
Each team also has an excellent attacking full back (Silence of the Lahm for ze Germans and captain Juan "Don't call me Pablo" Sorin for the Argies) that contributes to their offensive engine, but may be forced to play more defense than at any point thus far in the tournament. In fact, the striker vs. back line battle should be epic and will play out very differently on each end of the field. For the Germans, man mountains Mertesacker and Metzelder have to find a way to keep the extremely quick Saviola (or Messi) and crafty Crespo in check, while Ayala and Heinze - at least one of whom should be in every Best 11 team - have to deal with the speed, power, and aerial acumen of Klose and Podolski.

Tactically, this should be a cagey game where both teams look to capitalize on a mistake or convert from set pieces. They both have great offenses, which means the emphasis will be on defense for both. If the Germans score quickly like they have been, the crowd may carry them, but I don't think they will this time. In fact, since the Germans have played the weaker schedule by far, I think it's they that have to be worried about a barnstorming start from the Argies that puts them immediately under the gun.

In the end, home field and two headers carry the Germans to victory. Whatever the final result, the journey to get there should be an all-time classic.

Italy vs. Ukraine
I have the Italians making it to the finals by hook or by crook, and we all know how the last game played out. Fortunately for the azzurri, things should be a bit easier this time out. Ukraine couldn't get their game up if Adidas balls were constructed of Viagra. It particularly hurts them that Shevchenko still isn't fully fit, and the rest of the squad need him in top form just to look average. The Ukrainian defense is solid, but they haven't seen this many skilled players on the other side of the ball since they faced Spain, and that was a disaster.


And I shall call him The Pony...
As for the Italians, Cannavarro and the boys are not going to be troubled much by Sheva's friends even without Nesta, and I think they can keep Andriy under wraps. Additionally, I foresee Toni/Gilardino getting off the schneid, and Totti doing something stupid, though both of those might have to wait for next week's game before they come to fruition. Whatever the case, Italy are making it into the semifinals here, I'd stake a small fortune on it.

I do hope that we'll get to see Mauro "The Pony" Camoranesi on the pitch at some point in this match. He's been absent since the opening match against Ghana, but could see some time due to a bevy of Italian injuries. Oh, and he has the coolest ponytail in the tournament (not that that's any way to judge a football player).

Firestarters
Which team is more despicable: Italy or Portugal?



Before this World Cup, I was unaware that on-the-field handjobs were so common...


And finally, a little piece of marketing genius, courtesy of Phil Ivey, Full Tilt, and the folks at YouTube:


6 Comments:

At 2:54 AM, Blogger P-Man said...

Oh my god! The poker face is really good!

 
At 4:33 AM, Anonymous Spaniard said...

Semifinals:

Brasil-England
Germany-Italy

Finals:

Brasil-Germany

Winner: Germany

Just my 2 cents.

 
At 5:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not sure I agree about the Germany vs. Argentina match. Germany have played well so far but have yet to get any real test. Actually think in this world cup and the last one due to good draws they have only played one good team. That was Brazil in the 2002 final and they lost.

I think the back 4 will be Germany's undoing. If Costa Rica can expose the German's defenders inability to stand in a straight line letting Wanchope in behind the defence several times. Then Argentina with Messi, Saviola, and Crespo upfront and Riquelme playing the through balls should cause them considerably more trouble.

 
At 9:07 AM, Blogger footballknuts said...

The German back 4 haven't had the problem you note since the first game, so I don't really think it's a problem anymore. I think in general that Messi, Saviola, and Crespo would cause ANYBODY more trouble :) but Germany is playing really well right now, so I think the teams are pretty evenly matched.

Remember, Argentina's last two games were a 0-0 draw with the Dutch and a 2-1 win over Mexico that took a wunderstrike to get there.

 
At 9:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very true, but I still feel the Germany defence has trouble dealing with quick attackers that try and make runs behind them. They have done well since the opening game mainly because the strikers they have played against are either bad (Poland, Ecuador second string) or not of that style like Sweden.

But Germany are playing great and always up their game in big world cup matches. So should be a close one with plenty of chances and will be leaving work early to watch it.

 
At 6:30 PM, Anonymous Dozer said...

What a game! I was standing in one of the Public Viewing Areas here in Germany, and it was one of the most intense games of football. The first half wasn't too good, but both teams and especially the Germans got their game on after David Odonkor came in.

Before the Cup, it was Odonkor's nomination that lead to the biggest criticism of Klinsmann. Now, David has played himself into the heart of the audience... he did great and managed to give the German team the punch they needed to score the equalizer in a game between two equal teams.

And the penalty time was SO INTENSE here. Now we all think our home team will make it to the finals, and giving Brazil a rematch of the 2002 finals (probably losing again, though).

Ted, what do you say: Will Germany beat Italy, or are you holding on to your prediction?

 

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