Finals Predictions

Here we are, 62 games have passed and only one relevant one remains. My predictions have been very good since the round of 16, nailing 11 of the 14 games since that time including both of the semifinals. That leaves just one game left to be decided (I’m ignoring the consolation game), between one surprise team and the team I predicted would be there all along.

I said a couple of days ago that there was no way I would bet against France anymore, and that rules holds true. Yet six weeks ago, I picked Italy as the team to win it all, a prediction most laughed at, so I find myself in a tough spot. On one side there is Totti, Cannavarro, and Buffon. On the other, Zidane, Henry, and Thuram. Only one of them will come out of this with a title, and yet I find myself still undecided as to who will win. With that in mind, let’s break down the strengths of the teams.

For Italy, their strength lies in their rock solid defense and the brilliance of Pirlo, who has far outshone Totti as the maestro in the Italian midfield. Cannavarro is certainly on my best of 11, and while the Italian attackers have generally failed to impress, one must still admit that Toni is dangerous and difficult to handle, even if he is currently misfiring. They also have perhaps the best goalie of the tournament in Gianluigi Buffon, a laughable name that disguises mastery between the pipes beyond that of his peers.

For France you have the undeniable Zinedine Zidane, who has roused his aging frame to produce performances that will live forever in the annals of World Cup lore. He did not dominate against Portugal like he did against Brazil, but he didn’t need to, and his penalty kick is one of the very few to have beaten Ricardo. Joining Zidane in attack are the equally masterful Thierry Henry and the youth of Frank Ribery, who after a slow start, has managed to live up to the initial hype of his billing. Patrick Viera and Claude Makalele have also been extremely strong for France, saving their best performances for teams that would test their skills. The French defense is what has been particularly impressive this time around, with Thuram delivering an incredible set of displays to rival his form in 1998, while the rest of the defense has managed to link well with the attack and gone to great lengths to protect them from the certain buffoonery of one Fabien Barthez.

Looking at the two teams, France is clearly the stronger of the two in attack, while Italy’s defense has been impenetrable to even the most talented of squads. France’s defense is also stout, but Barthez is a weak link that Italy can exploit, provided they get some space to deliver shots on goal. This is space that the defensive six from France have denied everyone else. As for the Italian attack, Toni and Totti can certainly challenge the French defense, but I get the feeling both Totti and Pirlo will find it difficult to create with Viera and Makalele dogging their every move, and Toni is nothing unless he can get some solid service. On the other side of the ball, Gattuso can handle Zidane just as he handled Ballack, while Cannavarro and Grosso will be able to deal with Henry, though if he gets a great through ball he will be off to the races. That leaves Ribery as the wild card, a role he seems born to play.

With two teams this closely matched, this game will come down to one of two things. Should Barthez manage to avoid any unreasonably stupid plays against Italy (something he failed to do against Portugal), then France will win this game on the back of some piece of brilliance from one of their three offensive stars. However, if Barthez makes the critical mistake that has dogged him his entire career, Italy will take home their 4th title and first since 1982.

My prediction? I think France takes second trophy home to the Champs Elysees, and Zidane’s name is written into the record books alongside Pele’s as one of the greatest World Cup heroes of all time. Honestly, it’s probably already there, but a victory on Sunday will leave no doubts as to his greatness. The only note of discord a French victory would strike with me is that Domenach would be rewarded for tactical mismanagement in the early rounds, though he has made up for it since then.