Football kNuts

EPL Previews Have Begun!

2006-07-25T14:26:00.000-04:00

For those who missed the earlier memos, there is football writing going on, but it has moved to http://football-knuts.livejournal.com/ My previews of all the English Premier League teams are officially under way and will be updated every week day right up until the start of the season. Those interested can find the first two linked below.

Arsenal: http://football-knuts.livejournal.com/1067.html
Aston Villa: http://football-knuts.livejournal.com/1326.html

5 Reasons Why World Cup '06 Was Terrible for Casual Fans

2006-07-19T13:24:00.000-04:00

(Last update over here.)

An interesting dichotomy appeared in the aftermath of this most recent World Cup, one that was not surprising but deserves to be noted. While most hardcore football pundits stated they enjoyed the World Cup as a whole, and most ratings were up in households across Europe and the United States (a misleading statistic, since World Cup 2002 was at difficult times for Europeans and impossible times for Americans), most casual fans walked away from the event scratching their heads. This was not only the result of Zinedine Zidane's actions (though those certainly did not help), but was more the fault of the proceedings as a whole. Countless Americans I talked to and even numerous non-sports-fanatic Euros found themselves asking, "What the hell do people see in this game?"

Considering the product churned out at the World Cup, in spite of the fact that most of the world's stars were on display, I find that to be a fair question. Therefore I decided to look into reasons why this World Cup was not only far below the standards we usually set for great football, but was actually a terrible tournament to deliver to the casual fan.

Reason #5 - Zinedine Zidane and the headbutt.
Tell me exactly how you are supposed to explain the headbutt to anyone, let alone someone who doesn't watch the game regularly? "Why did he do that?" I have no idea. I mean, I can show them youtube links providing evidence that Materazzi is as dirty as they come, but in that moment there seemed to be no rhyme or reason to Zidane's actions. He was sent off, his team lost, and Italy took home the trophy. That was nearly the end of it, until...

The writers gave Zidane the award for best player. Yes, Cannavarro likely should have won, but Cannavarro didn't almost singlehandedly destroy Brazil, while Zidane did. In fact, Zizou was generally brilliant throughout the tournament. But beyond the headbutt, how do you explain to someone that a guy dismissed for violent conduct in the final when his team still needed him was still deemed the best player? It's practically tantamount to saying, "We don't care if you are violent, as long as you are brilliant as well." Nice sports ethics lesson there. Is this something you want your kids taking away from the game? Welcome to an immediate black eye for the game and a lot of folks left scratching their heads.

Reason #4 - Brazil's performance.
As much as most of us hate the FIFA rankings system, they give people who don't know much about the game a measuring stick by which to judge teams they might not know very well. According to FIFA rankings and basically any sensible rankings as well, Brazil was definitely the best team in the world entering World Cup 2006. Sadly, in four out of the five games they played, Brazil were just short of bad, especially when compared to their own lofty standards. Thus, anyone tuning in to catch the #1 ranked team in the world and home of the FIFA World Footballer of the Year was treated to the sight of surprisingly stinky football. Nobody expected this, and yet there it was for all to see.

Obviously there's nothing to be done to change the fact that Brazil did not in fact play the beautiful game at this World Cup, but regardless, they certainly did not help improve upon a product that was clearly suffering.

Reason #3 - The Referees
Since the bad refereeing was nearly universal right through to the quarterfinals, the blame for this one rests squarely on the shoulders of our FIFA lords and masters. They clearly wanted to crack down on a variety of behaviors, but unfortunately did not realize the severity of their decree and also did not train referees properly in order to carry it out.

There were more yellow and red cards at this World Cup than ever before, and yet ironically, they did nothing to curb the type of behavior FIFA was trying to eliminate. Diving was rampant and there were a couple of matches that turned shockingly violent. Additionally, all of the yellow cards did absolutely nothing to increase scoring, and the inconsistent refereeing combined with Sepp Blatter's idiotic criticisms while the Cup was still going on merely served to increase the PR hit the game was already taking - a PR hit that likely would never had occurred had Sepp and his boys prepared referees properly in the first place.

Let me put this another way: any time a referee has a dramatic and direct effect on the outcome of a game, it reflects poorly on the legitimacy of a "sport." In no other popular sport does the referee hold nearly as much power to change outcomes as they do in football. Further, when referee decisions frequently seem arbitrary or wrong AND adversely affect the fortunes of one team over another, it's a blemish on the sport as a whole. With the Serie A scandal fresh in everyone's mind, I'm surprised there were not more nervous twitters about match fixing at the World Cup level. It's a good thing Italy didn't get any dodgy penalties awarded to them along the way...

Reason #2 - A Preponderance of "Simulation"
The biggest lingual sleight of hand in the game gives us the second biggest reason why World Cup 2006 was a stinker. I thought I was a pretty jaded football fan, but I have never seen diving to this degree at any level. Portugal matches were such astounding divefests that I found myself looking around the pitch to see where the pool was located. (It appeared to be centralized in the penalty area of whichever goal Portugal was attacking.) Nike is rumored to have floated the idea of giving Portuguese players nothing more than a pair of goggles and a speedo for their Euro 2008 uniforms. When watching Crissy Ronaldo, I eventually came to the conclusion that Greg fucking Louganis did not dive this much, and he was a professional.

This is one of the explicit detriments to the game that FIFA has talked about cracking down upon/fixing and yet this year more than any in recent memory, diving was a massive part of the game. Let's hope that FIFA figure out a way to fix this for good and soon, because when jaded fans are furious and frustrated at the effect "simulation" has on the game, one can only imagine how ludicrous it looks when a player falls to the turf like he's been shot only to get up 30 seconds later and take off at a full sprint.

Reason #1 - A Complete and Utter Lack of Goals
Believe it or not, regardless of what the sport is, people typically like to see players score. While the lack of scoring in football creates some drama, scoring itself is exciting, and changes in the lead are both exciting and dramatic. Of course, to have changes in the lead, you typically need both teams to score, and that failed to happen in 2006.

According to some excellent analysis by Peter Goldstein over at Planet World Cup, goalscoring at this World Cup was the second lowest ever at 2.30 per game, bettering 1990's 2.21 by the slightest of margins. There were an average of 2.44 gpg total during the Group stages, and a paltry 1.875 gpg during the knockout rounds. To give you some external reference, the knockout average is lower than the average goals scored per game by Chelsea or Manchester United (1.89) or Real Madrid or Valencia (2.0) by themselves during the 2005-2006 season.

In terms of suspense, there were 5 games out of 48 during the group stages that finished 2-2 or better (including the dismal-yet-exciting Tunisia vs. Saudi Arabia match), and 0 during the knockout stages. According to Goldstein, only 28.1% of games featured an equalizing goal, making it the second worst World Cup since 1930 for that sort of excitement (1990 again takes the crown by a small margin). Hardcore football fans can understand the brilliant 0-0 or 1-1 draw is a positive for the game, and I think casual fans are okay with draws in general, but a lack of scoring overall just makes the game look like 22 guys running around and flopping on the ground for 90 minutes. Numerous folks I talked to were like, "What's the point?" which is a pretty widespread opinion here in America. Let's face it - few goals plus fewer lead changes leads to pretty boring football, regardless of whether you are watching football for the fifth time or the five hundredth.

Football at the International level has become increasingly more defensive over the years (I haven't done the stats on domestic football to see if it too has become more defensive), making it similar to what happened in the NBA and the NHL over the course of the last decade. Officials heading both of those leagues took steps in recent years to correct what they perceived as a downturn in the quality of the game, causing scoring (and fans) to return to both with a vengeance. It will be interesting to see if FIFA are capable of making the changes necessary to correct this problem, or if we will be stuck with the "beautiful, boring game" for the foreseeable future.

Conclusions
The 2006 World Cup was a failure at bringing the best football has to offer to the casual and hardcore fan alike. Diving, violent conduct, shoddy inconsistent officiating, a dearth of scoring, and far too many games ending in penalty kicks are hardly what long-time fans love about the game of football, and yet these were the traits on display for all to see in Germany. In fact, if one were to package the traits of football you didn't want to see emphasized at the game's greatest event, these would likely be it. Therefore it is my conclusion that the 2006 World Cup was an unmitigated failure in selling the product of football to those with no more than a passing acquaintance with the game.

Note: For those who want to read my rant on World Cup officiating and what can be done about it, please click here.

The Greatest Football Pay Per View of ALL TIME

2006-07-15T11:58:00.000-04:00

Now that official word has been handed down and we know exactly what is going to happen regarding the nefarious Serie A teams, it makes sense to run this column. For those of you who are link-phobic, allow me to just tell you that Italian giants Juventus, Lazio, and Fiorentina have all been relegated to Serie B, with various points docked for previous seasons AND next season, while AC Milan were allowed to stay in Serie A, but docked 44 points from last season, and will start 2006 with a 15 point deficit. Should the verdict stand, none of these teams will be allowed to play in Europe this season either.

With the punishments final, it should set off a run on transfers the likes of which haven't been seen since Leeds United called time on David O'Leary's madness.

What's that? Okay, fine - it will be much greater than that. In fact, the news is SO interesting that I think it has the potential to be turned into the greatest football pay-per-view event of all time. What sort of idea could possibly meet the hype?

The 2006 Serie A Auction of the Stars

Harry could make a real splash here.

Here's the plan: Any and all players on the relegated teams who are interested in transferring should submit their requests and they will be publicly posted as available for bid. Then next Saturday, July 22nd, every single team interested in bidding on these players will show up at some predetermined place where an auctioneer will then run an auction for each player's transfer rights, with the winners earning the right to negotiate personal terms with the players.

The entire process would be covered by television cameras and commentators from every major league in Europe, and after each set of bids, interviews commence with the manager of the team that won the bid and they'd get a chance to interview the players for their reaction. Then, said commentators could, you know, commentate on whether they thought the player was a good buy for the team, whether a particular player went for too much money, etc. Tell me you wouldn't pay 50 bucks/30 quid/1 million lira to see Harry Redknapp show up with a 70M pound transfer kitty and make some noise. I am convinced that this is one of the greatest television ideas of all time. Just take a look at the list of players that might be involved:

Juventus
Gianluigi Buffon - G
Lilian Thuram - D
Fabio Cannavarro -D
Gianluca Zambrotta -D
Robert Kovac -D

Emerson - M
Pavel Nedved - M
Patrick Viera - M
Mauro Camoranesi - M

Zlatan Ibrahimovic - F
Adrian Mutu - F
Alessandro Del Peiro - F
David Trezeguet - F

Fiorentina
Sebastian Frey - G
Tomas Ujfalusi - D
Valeria Bojinov - F
Gianpaolo Pazzini - F
Luca Toni -F

Lazio (No wonder they were fixing matches)
Simone Inzaghi - F

All I can say is: wow. And this is assuming that none of the Milan players want to move post-scandal, though they could certainly be included if they wanted to opt-in.

Now there's obviously a major problem with this plan in that players still have to agree to personal terms in order make the transfer complete, so they could obviously stall for whatever team they wanted to move to. However, I can see working around this by setting up some rules ahead of time.

Rule #0: Players will privately publish their personal terms ahead of time to the auctioneer so that teams will know whether they have a chance of meeting them. This is a long shot, but whatever - this entire idea is a long shot.

Rule #1: Players get 10% of the transfer fee as long as they sign with the team that bid the most for them. Otherwise they get zero.

Rule #2: Trailing bids matter, since they will determine who gets second and third chances, etc to negotiate with the player.

Rule #3: If you can't agree to terms with one of your Top 5 bidders, you have to stay with the relegated team for the rest of the season. You will sign a contract to this effect ahead of time.

Rule #4: Chelski are not invited.

Could this work? I think it could. Obviously there are ways to game the system, but that's part of the fun. The revenues from this could go to charity as the teams use it for good PR, or better yet, founding a refereeing program that doesn't suck. Additionally, you could get some betting company to sponsor this with Live Bet odds on infinite things, including which player will command the highest transfer fee, who will sign with what team, and whether one of the managers/players will have an aneurysm during the course of the event.

What's to stop Real Madrid from coming in and winning the bid for every one of these players? I don't know, actually. It doesn't mean they'd sign all of them and it would kind of ruin the suspense, but maybe the gaming going on for second and third place bids on a lot of players would be the interesting part. Obviously Real are freaking crazy, so they could ruin the whole show, but I don't think they would. If they did, it would be a very expensive day for them.

Do I think this could ever happen? No, of course not. But would it be the single most fascinating day of the football offseason if it did? Hell yes.

The Football kNuts Best 11

2006-07-12T10:27:00.000-04:00

Public Service Announcement: I've been having some internal debate about whether or not to continue this blog now that the World Cup is over. It has helped me define how much work would be required to produce solid material daily about football over an extended period. The answer to that question is: a lot. Since I already know the audience is likely to diminish dramatically from a number that is already not enormous, there is some merit in just canning things altogether. However, assuming I don't sign on with some sports website to publish regularly (a pleasant dream, but one that seems vaguely unlikely), that would leave me both without a vehicle and a readership for football writing, which is unacceptable.

To make a long story short, I'm going to continue writing about football into the coming season - mostly about the Premiership and La Liga, with a smattering of Serie A thrown in. The publishing schedule will be 3 times a week, likely on Sunday/Monday, then on Tuesday and Thursday. That will give readers regular times to come visit the site, and give me regular breaks. Since it's easier to build readership there, I'm going to move it over to Livejournal, which will make it easier for the bulk of people already reading to follow.

The non World Cup stuff can be found at http://football-knuts.livejournal.com/ starting next Monday.

You see some spectacular things in NYC.

Alright, since it's Wednesday, I assume you've read all you want to read about Sunday's festivities. I was in NYC for the weekend and watched the penalties across from the Hotel Gansevoort down near the Meatpacking District (which sounds like the best name for a gay neighborhood in history, but really is just the old meatpacking district). Anyway, after the game finally ended, I saw both Ronaldo and Maria Sharapova come out of the hotel and hop into cabs. I also saw some of the hottest Italian women ever celebrating with skeezy Italian men over the Azzurri victory. Fun, interesting times.

The first half of the final was fun to watch and reasonably well played. The final 75 minutes were much less so, and I doubt you need me to tell you just how sick of penalty kicks I am. In fact, I'm so oversaturated with info about this Final that I'm just going to wrap any game specific recap here. Zidane headbutted Matza, Matza fell real hard, nobody will ever know exactly what he said, and Zidane capped his career of brilliance with one moment of insanity. At least we're never going to forget it, right? See the bottom of this article for 5 reasons why I myself might take a hit out on Matza if I played against him.

I got my immediate prediction on this one wrong (I picked France on Friday in what looked like a push), but I got my prediction from 6 weeks ago (before the World Cup) correct in picking Italy to win, and I got 6 of the 8 quarterfinalists right, so I didn't do too badly.

My Best 11
This is going to be a 4-5-1, since that's all any of the good teams except Germany seemed to play. This isn't really a good thing for the game, since it means the majority of the World Cup was played like every team was the 2000 New York Knicks, trying to win every game by an 81-80 score, but it's what we've got to work with

Obv.

Goalie: Buffon, Italy
If we were chatting via instant messenger, this is the part where I type "Obv" and expect the conversation to be over. Lehman and Ricardo were the only two even close in my mind, and they were also the two that showed that saving penalty kicks is a skill and not sheer randomness. Buffon's only drawback is that he makes it all look so easy, which disguises the fact that he's really, really good.

Defense
Right Back: Miguel, Portugal
Center Back: Fabio Cannavarro, Italy
Center Back: Lilian Thuram, France
Left Back: Philip Lahm, Germany

Two central rocks, and two attacking wing backs who played very good defense. Canna and Thuram both show that you don't need giants to play in the middle in order to win, an opinion that seems to be at odds with current trends. Of course, they are also two of the best defenders of the modern era, so the rule may be "You either need world class players OR big backs to compete." Something to keep an eye on in the coming years...

The two guys I really wanted to add to this list were Gabriel Heinze from Argentina and Zambrotta from Italy, but even Chelski has to pick a starting 11 every Saturday.

Midfield
Midfielder: Maniche, Portugal
Midfielder: Michael Essien, Ghana
Midfielder: Maxi Rodriguez, Argentina
Midfielder: Zinedine Zidane, France
Midfielder: Andrea Pirlo, Italy

Yes I know this leaves us without a true left-sided midfielder, but these guys were more deserving. Besides, Rodriguez would technically be running down the left side of your television for half the game, right? Zizou and Pirlo were always going to be on here since they were the creative engines behind the two teams in the finals, but the other three were extremely tough choices that could have gone to any number of superstars.

Essien was nothing short of masterful in guiding Ghana out of the group of little death, and deserves credit for that, which is why he is here. Maniche was dynamic as a box-to-box midfielder for Portugal and gets the nod just ahead of Deco for a strong (yet hateable) Portuguese team, and Maxi Rodriguez just gets the nod over Riquelme and Mascherano for a seemingly reformed Argentina. I hope Argentina manager Jose Pekerman gets a chance to coach more at this level - one mistake should not destroy what was otherwise a very good World Cup.

Players that would likely have made it if this column were the Best 16 instead of the Best 11 include Viera, Ribery, Gattuso, Deco, and Torsten Frings.

Forward: Miroslav Klose
It feels a little shady to just give this to the golden boot winner, but Klose had an amazing World Cup until he got injured, at which point Germany's attack suffered. Klose was gangbusters during the group stage (again), but you could definitely tell he was bothered by injury as the tournament wore on. He was completely out of their Argentina game minus his fantastic headed goal, and didn't make a dent against Italy. Then again, who did? Regardless, before the injury, Klose was a monster, giving fans everything they could have wanted included bulges in the old onion bag.

As for other forwards, Henry played well both in scoring goals and in passing well to his teammates, but his dive against Spain tainted his Cup a bit for me. Fernando Torres of Spain was the only other striker in the list deserving a positive mention. Yes, it was that kind of Cup.

Tomorrow: 5 reasons why this was a terrible World Cup for casual fans.

Finals Predictions

2006-07-07T09:56:00.000-04:00

Here we are, 62 games have passed and only one relevant one remains. My predictions have been very good since the round of 16, nailing 11 of the 14 games since that time including both of the semifinals. That leaves just one game left to be decided (I’m ignoring the consolation game), between one surprise team and the team I predicted would be there all along.

I said a couple of days ago that there was no way I would bet against France anymore, and that rules holds true. Yet six weeks ago, I picked Italy as the team to win it all, a prediction most laughed at, so I find myself in a tough spot. On one side there is Totti, Cannavarro, and Buffon. On the other, Zidane, Henry, and Thuram. Only one of them will come out of this with a title, and yet I find myself still undecided as to who will win. With that in mind, let’s break down the strengths of the teams.

For Italy, their strength lies in their rock solid defense and the brilliance of Pirlo, who has far outshone Totti as the maestro in the Italian midfield. Cannavarro is certainly on my best of 11, and while the Italian attackers have generally failed to impress, one must still admit that Toni is dangerous and difficult to handle, even if he is currently misfiring. They also have perhaps the best goalie of the tournament in Gianluigi Buffon, a laughable name that disguises mastery between the pipes beyond that of his peers.

For France you have the undeniable Zinedine Zidane, who has roused his aging frame to produce performances that will live forever in the annals of World Cup lore. He did not dominate against Portugal like he did against Brazil, but he didn’t need to, and his penalty kick is one of the very few to have beaten Ricardo. Joining Zidane in attack are the equally masterful Thierry Henry and the youth of Frank Ribery, who after a slow start, has managed to live up to the initial hype of his billing. Patrick Viera and Claude Makalele have also been extremely strong for France, saving their best performances for teams that would test their skills. The French defense is what has been particularly impressive this time around, with Thuram delivering an incredible set of displays to rival his form in 1998, while the rest of the defense has managed to link well with the attack and gone to great lengths to protect them from the certain buffoonery of one Fabien Barthez.

Looking at the two teams, France is clearly the stronger of the two in attack, while Italy’s defense has been impenetrable to even the most talented of squads. France’s defense is also stout, but Barthez is a weak link that Italy can exploit, provided they get some space to deliver shots on goal. This is space that the defensive six from France have denied everyone else. As for the Italian attack, Toni and Totti can certainly challenge the French defense, but I get the feeling both Totti and Pirlo will find it difficult to create with Viera and Makalele dogging their every move, and Toni is nothing unless he can get some solid service. On the other side of the ball, Gattuso can handle Zidane just as he handled Ballack, while Cannavarro and Grosso will be able to deal with Henry, though if he gets a great through ball he will be off to the races. That leaves Ribery as the wild card, a role he seems born to play.

With two teams this closely matched, this game will come down to one of two things. Should Barthez manage to avoid any unreasonably stupid plays against Italy (something he failed to do against Portugal), then France will win this game on the back of some piece of brilliance from one of their three offensive stars. However, if Barthez makes the critical mistake that has dogged him his entire career, Italy will take home their 4th title and first since 1982.

My prediction? I think France takes second trophy home to the Champs Elysees, and Zidane’s name is written into the record books alongside Pele’s as one of the greatest World Cup heroes of all time. Honestly, it’s probably already there, but a victory on Sunday will leave no doubts as to his greatness. The only note of discord a French victory would strike with me is that Domenach would be rewarded for tactical mismanagement in the early rounds, though he has made up for it since then.

Crissy on the eBay Transfer List

2006-07-06T14:51:00.000-04:00

Cristiano Ronaldo, known to fans as "Crissy" has been placed on the transfer list via eBay. This should be relatively unsurprising to folks who have been paying attention to the English backlash against ManYoo's talented winger.

This comes hot on the heels of the following staggering comments:

"We played well and did our best but the referee didn't help us,' the 21-year-old Manchester United forward said. 'Everyone who saw the match could see that the referee wasn't fair." You are correct, Crissy - the referee wasn't fair. What he should have done was card half of your freaking team for diving, which would have included dismissing you twice over. Instead he left his cards in his pocket, allowing your players to stay on the field, a dubious but mostly fair decision. Like, diving is one thing and deserves to be punished, but bitching about not getting calls for diving after the fact is positively retarded. Here's to hoping that Crissy interacts closely with a grease fire sometime in the near future.

As for me, assuming I can get internet tonight, I will have a couple of updates late tonight/early tomorrow morning about the Finals and various and sundry thoughts I've had in the last couple of weeks. In the meantime, if you have any questions for me or topics you want my thoughts on, leave them in the comments and I'll answer them as soon as I can.

Live Blog - Germany vs. Italy

2006-07-04T16:06:00.000-04:00

Minute 0 – Wow, Frings got the +b for trying to slap Julio Cruz, but no Schweinsteiger for Germany either – this is a different German team. For Italy, The Pony (Mauro Camoranesi) is playing in the midfield, and Gatusso is also starting. In a freak rip in the space/time continuum, Al Pacino actually played him in a movie back in the 70s.

Minute 3 – Totti hits a bullet from a free kick, but it hardly troubles Lehman. In fact, Lehman looks like he’s on the training ground instead of at the semifinals of the World Cup. This is a good thing, right?

Minute 5 – Dave O’Brien apologizes that we might be able to hear someone else’s commentary through their mikes. As if we could be so lucky. I’ve been pretty tolerant of this announcing team, but O’Brien asking multiple times why Pekerman didn’t bring in Messi or Saviola during the last Argentina game, and Balboa answering “because they’ve used all their subs!” officially pushed me past my limit. What the hell happened to Tommy Smyth? He’s good enough to do the Champions League games, but only gets a couple of shots during the World Cup? Something about this does not make sense.

Minute 6 – I notice that Friedrich has shaved since Germany faced Argentina. I decide that I have officially seen too much football in the last six weeks.

Minute 7 – Klose goes down and rolls around as if he was thrown out of a moving car. Play stops and he gets up with a grimace and then immediately starts running again. Sometimes I hate football.

Minute 10 – Ten minutes in, and no real chances have been created yet. Not remotely surprising considering who is playing.

Minute 11 – Toni and Lehman have both slipped on the craptastic turf in the last minute. I hope FIFA gets this garbage straightened out in the next four years, or you may as well play South Africa on a sheet of ice instead. Ridiculous. I hear one of my internet doppelgangers is a turf expert – maybe they should as him for help.

Minute 12 – Camoranesi doesn’t know words to the Italian national anthem – oh the shame. Little known fact – approximately 76.3% of Americans pretend The Star Spangled Banner has the word “watermelon” in the lyrics.

Minute 15 – Klose is so good at taking tough passes and then laying the ball off to Podolsky. Lucas was just a step slow in getting there. One wonders if Klose passes this well at the club level.

Minute 16 – Oo, back to back attacking chances, one for each team. Perfect offsides trap break by Italy, but the pass is just a hint too far and Lehman cleans it up after 8 or 9 tries.

Minute 20 – The Pony is sporting the samurai variation of his normal hair do. Does he have to commit sepukku if Italy lose? Regardless, he’s certainly the coolest looking player on the pitch today.

Minute 22 – I think Balboa just called one Italian central defender Mozzarella. Meanwhile, Kehl is getting involved in the offense and looks good, hooking up with Podolski for a tough volley. Podolski pumps up the crowd and it makes me wonder why more players don’t do this. You see it in American football, but not nearly enough for the rabid fans in real football. If you ever get a “create player” option in Football Manager, I’m adding the trait “pumps up the crowd” to my guy in addition to “responds poorly to authority” and “tends to get drunk in Japan.”

Minute 24 – Italy’s turn to go close this time, getting a great free kick from Pirlo that just misses both Toni and Mozzarella.

Minute 25 – Thinking about Football Manager traits makes me wonder how they incorporate tendencies to do Rooney-esque things on the pitch. They have Bravery and Decisions, but I think Stupidity may deserve a spot in the ’07 edition.

Minute 26 – Cannavarro looks great, but the rest of Italy’s defense seems a bit shaky, especially up the left wing. Germany needs to exploit this.

Minute 28 – Holy crap, AC Milan, Lazio, and Fiorentina are also recommended for demotion from Serie A match fixing. I knew about Juve, but had not heard Milan was also in that list. Hopes for a fire sale of Italian stars unwilling to play on relegated sides have officially gone to 11. Let’s just hope that Chelsea are not invited.

*I just realized that a televised auction of the stars from these four teams would perhaps be the greatest football Pay-Per-View event of all time. Expect to hear more about this soon.

Minute 30 - Lahm trips The Pony just outside the box and should probably have received a yellow card for it. He also sports a fantastic shiner from somewhere. Uncomfortable story: My mother-in-law also once sported a black eye just like that one and admitted that she got it while changing positions during sex.

Minute 34 – Klose is on the break and lays it off to Schneider for a fantastic open shot that Buffon manages to parry in a reflex save. Best chance of the match and Buffon proves equal to the task.

Minute 37 – Balboa makes excellent observation (shocking, I know) that Ballack is actually playing the holding midfielder role while Kehl and Borowski get involved in the attack. I’m not sure this is a great idea, since Ballack might just be their most talented player, but Frings is certainly the most important guy for them to replace. So he’s either playing the Frings role, or he’s resting a lot.

Minute 40 – Podolski has now been on his knees and back more than any whore at a Prague cabaret, and he’s not the only player who seems to have taken up a new occupation. The game has suddenly turned into football pinball.

Minute 40 – Borowski gets the first (well-deserved) yellow of the game for an ugly challenge from behind on Totti.

Minute 44 –
Dear Marcelo Balboa,
Can you please stop applauding players for diving? I know that you have taken approximately 10,000 balls to the head, but this behavior is “cheating” no matter how clever you think it is.
Thank you,
Real football fans

Minute 44 – Lahm serves another fantastic ball into the box for Klose, but Italy clears. He might just be the most accurate crosser of the tournament.

Minute 45 – Totti goes flying over Ballack just before the end of the half and gets called for a foul in the process. It was likely the wrong call, but I approve.

And that’s it for the first half. There have been a couple of decent chances, with Schneider probably getting the best one of the half, but both defenses have held. A very solid half of play, and less chippy than many have feared.

Eric Wynalda has grown on me throughout this World Cup. As long as he’s not commenting on the USMNT, he’s frank, accurate, and even somewhat self-effacing. He says stupid stuff when discussing the U.S. but I think that might be just because he cares too much.

Second Half
Minute 48 – The Italians get their 6th offsides flag of the game already, signaling that Germany have apparently figured out how to play the trap correctly since Wanchope embarrassed them three weeks ago.

Minute 50 – Klose makes a ridiculous run that would be the highlight of the Cup if he’d finished it, but gets knocked off the ball just as he shoots and Buffon saves it with his feet. Italy strikes back immediately but is… offsides.

Minute 54 – FAN-tastic tackle by the Magic Dwarf on The Pony, as Lahm has to track back quickly in order to prevent a break. Camoranesi is an angry equine.

Minute 55 – Graphic shows Germany have 0 shots on goal thus far tonight after averaging 9 a game prior to this round, but didn’t we just see Buffon make a save on Klose? FIFA stats remain confusing.

Minute 58 – Totti plays about the fifth ball in a row in to Toni that has been mis-hit or mis-weighted. Each of these has killed what looked like a promising attack. Pirlo needs to get more involved.

Minute 63 – Great ball into Podolsky by Schneider. Podolsky turns extremely well on the ball but then smacks it directly at Buffon, who parries. The ESPN update tells me Martina Navratilova plans to retire at the end of the year. I’m suddenly confused and try to remember what decade we are in.

Minute 67 – Podolsky is on the break, but runs so quickly that the ball can’t keep up. They repeat the break about 45 seconds later, but Borowski’s touch deserts him on the final ball. I realize at this point that I am fully in “screw my predictions” mode and am cheering for Germany. Uber alles, etc.

Minute 69 – Offsides #9 on Italy. Between that and Totti, the Italians are really suffering in the final third of the pitch.

Minute 72 – The first sub of the game is Schweinsteiger in for Borowski. Balboa somehow tells us that Bastian hasn’t had a great tournament, which makes me wonder whether they’ve legalized marijuana in Deutschland. Italy really need an impact sub, but it’s Germany who make the first one. The game feels like it could break open at any moment.

Minute 74 – Finally Lippi makes his sub, getting Totti out of the game while bringing Gilardino off the bench. This isn’t relevant to anything, but the crowd in Dortmund sounds awesome.

Minute 77 – Germany give up a corner on an overdue successful attack from Italy. Zambrotta comes streaking up the sideline, crossing to what looked like Toni at the far post, and Kehl manages to head it out. The corner is plucked from the air by Lehman, who has been dominant thus far when he’s had any action.

Minute 80 – Action has downshifted from 5th gear into 2nd and everyone tries to catch their breath.

Minute 81 – Cannavarro gets called for a mystery foul on Podolsky that occurred inside the box, while the ball is placed outside the box. Ballack rips it over the crossbar. I realize I don’t actually know whether Podolsky is spelled with a Y or an I, but in Latin I am positive it is spelled with a J, making it the inverse of Jehova.

I'm now babbling and making non-sensical Indiana Jones references. Goals please!

Minute 83 – Odonkor comes into the game for a gassed Schneider. He’s like the German Aaron Lennon – all pace, and scary as hell to exhausted left backs for the opposition. In fact, when polled, tired left backs pick Odonkor and Lennon 1 and 2 over Freddy Krueger as men they have nightmares about. On the other side of the field, Gattusso and Ballack go at it again. I’m definitely enjoying their chippy, physical battle.

Minute 85 – Italy finally break the trap again and Lehman nearly knocks Perotta out with a flying elbow while punching the ball away. This is a move we teach in women’s self-defense, though we recommend the ladies don’t leave their feet.

Minute 88 – Ze Germans have held up surprisingly well, considering they played 120 minutes last Friday with most of this same team. Camoranesi hacks down Kehl in the middle of the field and gets a yellow card, looking like a tired but still very feisty Pony.

Minute 93 – Joy, a 0-0 draw. Again. Please not penalty kicks, please not penalty kicks!

Extra Time
Minute 91 – The Pony is off, Iaquinta Inns comes on.

Minute 91 – Gilardino makes a spectacular run (cue Jim Broadbent) down the right side, beating Mertesacker before cutting the ball back and going near-post on Lehman. The ball goes through, but strikes the inside of the post, crossing the goalmouth before being cleared. Soooo close.

Minute 92 – Italy have taken queue from early 2000's baseball and snorted speed during the break, with Zambrotta cracking a long-distance bomb right off the crossbar. Moments later, another Iaquinta run on the right off of a long ball signals the likely Italian strategy for the rest of extra time, a strategy that might just work.

Minute 95 – Lahm battles against Zambrotta and earns a free kick at the edge of the area. The free kick turns into a corner that goes all the way through the penalty area before being cleared.

Minute 96 – Mozzarella takes a 55 mph shot off the noggin and comes up woozy. Arturo Gatti has taken less hard shots to the head than most of these central defenders, and he doesn't even have to worry about elbows...

Minute 103 – Ballack and Iaquinta smash together, and the ref chooses to ignore it. I approve. In other news, Ballack is pretty big – he’s going to be a major pain in the ass in the EPL.

Minute 104 – Balboa just told us Italy was not taking Totti off and keeping him loose for penalty kicks. Didn't he get subbed out half an hour ago? Apparently not – he just hasn’t done anything since minute 73. To further the confusion, O’Brien turns Mozzarella’s name into Maserati. I head over to the FIFA page to figure out who they subbed out.

Minute 106 – Podolski gets an open header and pushes it well past the near post, as the first half of extra time ends.

Minute 108 – Lehman grabs another corner from the air, making sure his guys don’t have a chance to make a mistake. Apparently it was Toni that went out in the second half. Damn these rhyming Italian names!

Minute 111 – Madness in the box as Italy break and Lehman misses when trying to snatch the ball from Del Piero’s feet. Germany immediately counter and Podolski ends up with an open look that Buffon again is able to parry. The men of the match thus far are clearly the two goalkeepers.

Minute 114 – Lehman makes another mistake by coming out and almost getting caught in no man’s land, but Del Piero pushes his shot wide. 10 Germans just died of heart attacks and aneurysms.

Minute 116 – In complete and utter opposition to how the game went previously, it is now end-to-end action. It looks like my co-rec league, even to the point where they appear to be playing 6-on-6 in each half now that they are tired.

Minute 118 – Pirlo finds space and takes a shot from around 22 yards out that forces Lehman to save to his left. Corner kick to come.

Minute 119 - GOOOOOOOOOOOAL. Pirlo takes the ball at the top of the box after , threads a perfect pass to Grosso who sidefoots it into the far corner. Unbelievable!

Minute 121 – GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAL. Gilardino breaks against an exhausted, undermanned German defense and lays it off to Del Piero for an open look from 10 yards. Del Piero pushes it into the far corner and Italy are into the Finals! Unbelievable ending! Italy deserved to win this for their performance in the last 30 minutes, but a heartbreaking loss for Germany. They were the most enjoyable team to watch for the duration of the Cup, and contrary to everything I thought at the beginning of the tournament, I am sad to see them go.

Semifinals Predictions

2006-07-04T12:38:00.000-04:00

All apologies for the off days. I wore myself out trying to keep up the quality during the daily World Cup run while doing my job, and felt a need to recoup for a day or two. I am back though, and will have at least a couple of updates before the Finals on Sunday, though thoughts on that may take a bit since I'll be in NYC visiting friends.

Thinking back to the last two quarterfinals, I think the France vs. Brazil game was probably the best game of the tournament (or at least the one I enjoyed the most). France dominated this game, and Brazil could not get their act together and play as a team against another squad with enough talent to really test them. This was the first time where the immobility of the Brazilian strike force really hurt them, because they made the job for Gallas and Thuram far too easy. One shot on goal against a nutter like Barthez is a clear failure. I also didn't understand Brazil's tactical choice in this game - why only one forward and if one forward, why have that one forward be the immobile fat Ron?

Oddly enough, Brazil and England shared essentially the same fate this tournament. Both teams had a ton of stars that never gelled into a great team, particularly in the midfield. Kaka and Ronaldinho are perhaps two of the most expensive and talented midfielders in the world, but they never seemed to create beautiful football together. They weren't as dismal as Stevie G and Lampard, but by their own standards, neither had the World Cup they were hoping for and that contributed to their team's demise. Kaka's injury clearly played a part in his performance against France, and he probably should not have been on the pitch.

Zidane's performance in the last couple of games has been so insanely good that I now want to go back and watch 1998 matches to see what he was like when he was 26. I watched a bunch of those games - they were what rekindled my childhood love of the game - but can hardly remember a thing about them. I'll be sad to see the big man go.

As for England and Portugal, when making my predictions last week, I forgot there's at least a 50% chance one of England's stars will do something terminally stupid in the quarterfinals or later. It's funny - I know footballers generally aren't the brightest bulbs in society, but it's occasionally hard to remember that when they turn in "brilliant" performances on the pitch. Then they do something like step on an opponent's testicles in full sight of the referee and then push somebody directly afterwards and it all comes crashing back, once again killing the hopes of a nation. Rooney is still very young, but how can you trust a guy when he has a fuckup this big?

The other big factor in this game was that Crissy (Ronaldo) played and was plenty healthy. He killed Neville on that wing which, in conjunction with Beckham's injury, made England one-sided for the majority of regular time. I used to think that England and the Boston Red Sox were kindred teams, always managing to disappoint fans no matter how great their promise. Now I'm more convinced England are more like the Cubs, determined to fail in the most spectacular and inexplicable fashion possible.

Italy vs. Germany
Reader Dozer asked me if I was willing to change my original prediction that Italy would win this whole thing now that I've seen how good ze Germans are. I thought about it quite a bit and decided that I'm sticking to my guns here, though in truth this game is as much a pick 'em as Germany vs. Argentina. I'm not completely comfortable with this position (and would actually prefer Germany win), but I'll take a stand and tell you why Germany get bounced here.

First of all, Torsten Frings is suspended, which takes away the most important member of their midfield. Forget Schweinsteiger and Ballack - Frings is the guy on the squad that makes the whole team go. It's possible Germany have adequate cover for him (even likely), but the new guy will have to perform at an extremely high level right from the start to match what Frings has given them over the last 6 games. Second, Ballack and Klose are both gimpy and haven't had enough time to recover. Klose was hardly himself against Argentina, despite the goal, and Ballack looked like he was going to die on the pitch. That performance was tremendous, but it wore on the whole squad and they'll almost certainly show signs of that today starting about minute 60.

Third, I don't think Metzelder and Mertesacker can handle Toni. If he's on form now (even with the two goals against Ukraine, that remains to be seen), they will not be able to deal with someone as big as they are, but stronger, faster, and more skilled. I really like this German team, but I picked Italy to win it all from the beginning, and I'm not jumping teams with the end in sight. If it comes down to penalty kicks, however, Lehman is God.

How weird would it be to have them win the World Cup while their domestic league is in a complete shambles from high-level match fixing?

France vs. Portugal
I'm not betting against France any more this tournament. If they face Italy in the finals, I just won't bet. This team has played absurdly well for the last two games and need to do so for two more in order to take home another golden foil trophy, and with the way Zidane has looked, I absolutely would not put it past them.

I think this game will come down to wing play. Both teams love to attack from the wings both from the midfield and with overlapping runs from their backs. However, that creates a real tension, since counterattacks will expose the backs if they push too far forward, allowing the counterpunchers to get easy chances at goal. Can Miguel and Sagnol be involved in the offense without screwing up and giving away a crucial goal? It will be an interesting game of cat and mouse in the wide parts of the field that should be a lot of fun to watch.

The central midfield battle is also a doozy, featuring Deco and Zidane as the artistes with Maniche, Thiago, Makalele, and Viera as the "less talented" members of what will probably not be a shooting war. The one area where a team has a major edge is at forward, where France has Henry while Portugal has Pauleta, who has practically been a blank this tournament. I think this game comes down to a moment or two of brilliance from one side that goes unmatched by the other team. I sincerely hope it does not end in PKs because a) I am sick of them and b) I'd hate to see what should be an awesome battle between two very talented teams end that way unless the score is 2-2 or better. Regardless, France wins and we have to listen to idiotic U.S. announcers tell us how this really is Zidane's last game one last time.

Quarterfinal Predictions, Part II

2006-07-01T09:56:00.000-04:00

After two perfect predictions yesterday, including Luca Toni's scoring exploits, I am officially feeling it. Let's see if we can go 4-4.

England vs. Portugal

So long, Portugal - you will not be missed.

This is it for Portugal - the end of the line. They are missing three key players in Deco, Costinha, and an injured Christiano Ronaldo and I think England will really be up for this match. (Also, in case you care, Luis Figo should be serving a suspension for a headbutt the ref didn't catch, but FIFA are pants, so Figo gets to play.)

This is the day where Rooney breaks his World Cup cherry, Joe Cole gets his star on the football walk of fame, and David Beckham plays a solid 65 minutes. I can feel it in me bones - the boys are going to win this one. They just have to keep Maniche, Figo, and Pauleta out of good scoring positions and I think they will be fine.

My only hope is that it doesn't turn nasty, because Portugal's games can get that way in a hurry. Portugal are the new Argentina. If there's any justice in the world, England will send these cheaty, diving [censored] crashing out of the Cup, and if there's not justice, England are still going to win this one because they are better team nearly across the board.

Brazil vs. France
At what point does a sleeping giant have to fully exit dreamland in order to win a World Cup? I think we find that out today, because if Brazil's defense or strikers sleepwalk through this one, they are going home. France will be the best team Brazil has faced this Cup by far, and they also present an interesting matchup in terms of style and tactics. The French are clearly looking to counterpunch, while Brazil will presumably do their thing and try to play beautiful attacking football.

Ronaldo certainly has a unique diet.

The worrisome elements for France are that, while Ronaldo hardly moves when he is on the pitch these days, when he does get the ball he's still lethal. France can't afford to give up more than a goal in this game or they are likely dead. The other thing they have to be concerned about is the same thing that sent Argentina packing: exhaustion. While it was most pronounced on TV for ze Germans during yesterday's game, exhaustion hit Argentina's players early, resulting the substitutions of Riquelme and Crespo midway through the second half, though they certainly could have used Riquelme's presence for at least the full 90. The French are relatively old, and while Zidane got a mandatory game off and Domenach has at least been reasonable about keeping his midfield fresh, his backline and workhorses have got to be tired. Tired is the last thing you want to be when playing Brazil. The fact that they are not playing the early game should help some.

From Brazil's perspective, their defense has to step up if they want to get out of this game alive. Unlike Ghana, France actually has players that can put the ball in the net. If you look slow against Henry and Ribery, you are losing, it's as simple as that. Brazil's defense hasn't looked good for some time (though to be fair, the haven't had to), which means they either come correct or they have to win this game in a shootout. They can certainly do it, but they probably do not want to. The play of Uncle Sal or Silva for Brazil (Uncle Sal may be injured) and Viera for France will be a big deal.

Also, has anyone seen the kid with all the hair and the big teeth on the pitch lately? The World Footballer of the Year has been strangely quiet lately.

This may seem like folly, but I had Spain bouncing Brazil in the round of 8 in my original predictions, so I'm going to stick with that and pick France to win this one. Regardless of what some folks may think, Henry has played well thus far, scoring a couple of goals and setting up a few others. I think he has a huge game today, the rest of France plays great defense, and they go through into the semifinals.

One of these guys could be a male model and likely has a huge following of women and in the gay community. The other is just Uncle Sal.

Quarterfinal Predictions Part I

2006-06-29T14:29:00.000-04:00

Before we get started on what just might be the greatest weekend in football, let me just say that I have generally loved the football in this World Cup. I have some complaints about the referees and how the rules of the game are being enforced and I think the game could be better on the field, but that doesn't mean I haven't enjoyed the last 3 weeks. Far from it, and I am particularly stoked about Friday and Saturday's action. There's even a chance ESPN won't shove Shep Messing down my throat on either day, which might just be cause for a national freaking holiday.

Germany vs. Argentina

Will it be Ballack...

The early game is of epic proportions, featuring two of the most successful countries in World Cup history, forced to do battle a full two rounds away from the final. It also features two of the most in-form teams at this Cup, which has fans everywhere hoping for fireworks. In fact, there are tremendous personnel matchups all over the pitch.

For starters, you have the two midfield generals and their pitbull defensive mids squaring off in a battle for central supremacy. We saw in the Champions League semifinal that a very good defensive midfielder is capable of marking Riquelme out of a game, but Villareal didn't have the weapons that Argentina does, and Torsten Frings will have his hands full for 90 solid minutes. For Germany, Ballack is likely too big and strong to be marked off the ball by just one man, but Mascherano has been tremendous thus far. Ballack's rumored to be having fitness troubles again, which could simplify the job.

Each team also has a tremendous wing midfielder that has powered their offense in the Cup thus far, and their play will be vital in determining which of these teams will win. Will it be Guy Ritchie star Bastian Schweinsteiger, or Adam Sandler lookalike Maxi Rodriguez? Hollywood couldn't script a confrontation this intriguing if they tried, and they wouldn't because American audiences would be turned off by the fact that this would be a foreign language film in both Spanish and German, and they'd need to read subtitles, which is a real pisser. Thankfully it's happening in real life, so we all win.

or Riquelme who comes out on top?

Each team also has an excellent attacking full back (Silence of the Lahm for ze Germans and captain Juan "Don't call me Pablo" Sorin for the Argies) that contributes to their offensive engine, but may be forced to play more defense than at any point thus far in the tournament. In fact, the striker vs. back line battle should be epic and will play out very differently on each end of the field. For the Germans, man mountains Mertesacker and Metzelder have to find a way to keep the extremely quick Saviola (or Messi) and crafty Crespo in check, while Ayala and Heinze - at least one of whom should be in every Best 11 team - have to deal with the speed, power, and aerial acumen of Klose and Podolski.

Tactically, this should be a cagey game where both teams look to capitalize on a mistake or convert from set pieces. They both have great offenses, which means the emphasis will be on defense for both. If the Germans score quickly like they have been, the crowd may carry them, but I don't think they will this time. In fact, since the Germans have played the weaker schedule by far, I think it's they that have to be worried about a barnstorming start from the Argies that puts them immediately under the gun.

In the end, home field and two headers carry the Germans to victory. Whatever the final result, the journey to get there should be an all-time classic.

Italy vs. Ukraine
I have the Italians making it to the finals by hook or by crook, and we all know how the last game played out. Fortunately for the azzurri, things should be a bit easier this time out. Ukraine couldn't get their game up if Adidas balls were constructed of Viagra. It particularly hurts them that Shevchenko still isn't fully fit, and the rest of the squad need him in top form just to look average. The Ukrainian defense is solid, but they haven't seen this many skilled players on the other side of the ball since they faced Spain, and that was a disaster.

And I shall call him The Pony...

As for the Italians, Cannavarro and the boys are not going to be troubled much by Sheva's friends even without Nesta, and I think they can keep Andriy under wraps. Additionally, I foresee Toni/Gilardino getting off the schneid, and Totti doing something stupid, though both of those might have to wait for next week's game before they come to fruition. Whatever the case, Italy are making it into the semifinals here, I'd stake a small fortune on it.

I do hope that we'll get to see Mauro "The Pony" Camoranesi on the pitch at some point in this match. He's been absent since the opening match against Ghana, but could see some time due to a bevy of Italian injuries. Oh, and he has the coolest ponytail in the tournament (not that that's any way to judge a football player).

Firestarters
Which team is more despicable: Italy or Portugal?

Before this World Cup, I was unaware that on-the-field handjobs were so common...

And finally, a little piece of marketing genius, courtesy of Phil Ivey, Full Tilt, and the folks at YouTube:

Round of 16 Wrap Up

2006-06-29T11:06:00.000-04:00

I'm running a bit behind on the end of my round of 16 review and some of you have asked for it, so here goes...

Italy vs. Australia

Men sucking their thumbs are clearly the villains of a story.

The referee was involved in two major decisions this entire game and he managed to get both of them wrong. First of all, the Materazzi red card was dumb and totally uncalled for, putting Italy at a disadvantage for what might have been a yellow card offense and nothing more. Then you get to the bit of acting at the end that lead to the penalty putting Italy into the quarters. Unlike some other penalties in this World Cup, this one wasn't one of those "are you out of your mind?" calls, but was more of "that's definitely the wrong call according to the rules." If a foul occurred there - and you can argue this one on both sides until you are blue in the face - it was obstruction, which should have lead to a free kick from a really difficult spot instead of a penalty kick. It still gives Italy a scoring chance in exchange for a flop, but it doesn't decide the game, which is what the ref did.

I was right in that the Aussies gave Italy everything they could handle in this game and more, it just made me sad to see them bow out on something so dubious. As for the Italians, dubious is all they do...

Switzerland vs. Ukraine
My sources behind the scenes have informed me of the following: In addition to the memo to the ref that FIFA sent before this game instructing him to give no cards until after the 60th minute, there was an additional memo sent to the teams that told them all players completing dangerous through balls from the midfield into a good attacking position would be executed by firing squad after the game with no possibility of appeal. Sometimes serious measures have to be taken, I guess. Good thing no one defied them in this game, or it might have looked like football.

Believe it or not, I watched 120 minutes of this game and then turned it off. I just couldn't watch the penalty kicks and care anymore. Ukraine won. I hope desperately that they don't win again. Has any team had a more improbable, goof-grab run in this tournament? Sure, they beat Saudi Arabia by a lot. That was the only game they played remotely well in. They needed a gift penalty to score at all against Tunisia and then failed to do anything against the Swiss (who (by the way) bow out of the tournament without conceding a single goal. Now that's pretty fucked up, right there.), yet they still find themselves facing the Italians in the quarterfinals. One good game, make it to the Top 8.

Clown shoes...

Brazil vs. Ghana
If Ghana had anyone in their lineup who could finish, and if the linesman had called the double offside on Adriano's goal, this game might have been spicy even without Michael Essien. As it was, you got the best move of the tournament from Ronaldo, some mind-blowingly bad offside trap work from the Ghanaian defense, and Brazil cruise into the quarters without having played that well yet.

Spain vs. France

Patty is taking fat hits from the fountain of youth.

For the first time all tournament, France play a team where their 4-5-1 formation makes sense and they finally looked good. Go figure. In the last two games, Patrick Viera has been the real difference-maker, looking like the Viera of old, who just happened to be one of the Top 5 all-around midfielders in the game. It's been said that big men age faster than their smaller counterparts, and both for Juventus and during the early part of the Cup, Patty looked like he was 50. The last two games, Viera seems a spry and dangerous 25. It's not hard to believe that France are winning without Henry playing his best yet, but if he hits his stride for Brazil, we're certainly going to see fireworks.

The Spanish may blame Thierry Henry's flop for their failure, but they should be pointing the finger at the mirror instead. Spain had plenty of decent chances for more goals, but they simply did not convert, unexpected considering how lethal they were in Group stage. The French defense was decent but not spectacular, and if Spain had hit a single more goal at any point before Zidane's reminder of how good he is, they probably win this game. I don't believe Spain were caught unawares by how good the French are, but I do think Aragones made a hefty mistake in starting Raul as an attacking midfielder when his lineup in games 1 and 2 worked so well without Raul in there. I'm sad to see the Spaniards go - they played beautiful football and probably should have been bashing the Swiss instead of the French, but I can't complain about seeing France make it through.

With Zidane and Viera sucking full bore off the fountain of youth, this team could go all the way. One merely wonders how long the juice from the rejuvenation machine will last.

Oh, and that racist prick Aragones absolutely has to go. It's difficult to believe Spain kept him on after the first set of comments, but wanting to keep him on after a perfectly valid excuse to give him the axe is absurd. Is the entire country crazy?

Beautiful (Broken) Feedback
It seems my blurb for this entry on some of the World Cup journal communities completely left the audience behind, which was unexpected but I guess shouldn't have been. Aside from that, the post seems to have spawned quite a bit of thought from those who read it, which was exactly what it was supposed to do.

On The Pitch has a good response to it that includes a point I didn't directly address in my post itself: Perhaps the biggest failing of referees at the World Cup has been the lack of consistency. As I mentioned in my comments there, I view this one as a given. All referees are going to call things slightly differently and have to be heavily trained if you want to change it, and if FIFA can't put refs in a position to get even that right, then there's little hope for anything else.

A couple more points about yesterday's post before I actually do my work for today and get started on the Quarterfinals predictions:

* I'm not married to any and all of the ideas discussed yesterday. Of the controversial bits, I actually like the blue cards concept the best because I think it would add the most value to the product.

* In said blue cards system, yellow cards still exist for most of the fouls they exist for now. Blue are for minor offenses, yellow are for medium to major offenses, and red means Marvin K. Mooney, would you please go now.

* FIFA is clearly setting referees up to fail with the support they are delivering. With modern communication technology, mistakes like the Graham Poll not sending off a player for his second red card (in the Croatia vs. Australia match) simply should not happen. It should not be a problem for his fourth official to get his attention over the radio and give the player the boot. This whole issue feels like it’s plagued by a cloud of stupidity.

The Beautiful (Broken) Game

2006-06-28T18:28:00.000-04:00

I have been fascinated by the sport of football since I was a small boy, in spite of the fact that I never played when I was younger. My mom would come home from work when I was around 6 years old and find me contentedly sitting in front of the TV, watching non-English language football broadcasts, though I'd never actually kicked a ball myself and never could figure out the damned offsides rule when no one was around to explain it en ingles. This says a lot about how I was hooked by the game right from the start or it might also have been the result of me sticking a false plug into a light socket and nearly electrocuting myself when I was three - the eternal conundrum about licks and centers of Tootsie Roll Pops is easier to figure out. Regardless, I've just spent the last month of my life writing daily about the game for free when I not only have plenty of other (paid) writing options but also other entertainment options, so I guess you could say I care.

After watching some untold number of hours of football during said period of time, I have come to the following conclusion:

Football is fundamentally broken.

Maybe you like this about the game. Maybe the impact of overly fallible human referees who are regularly duped by highly paid athletes and actors is an element of the sport that you appreciate. Perhaps you are of the opinion that while it sometimes ruins the game, it is also one of football's true idiosyncrasies that can no more be fixed without ruining the game than the fact that field players can't touch the ball with their hands. If that's the case, then so be it - you aren't my target audience. But maybe you don't feel that way. Maybe you hate the fact that referees seem to have at least as much impact on the game as any one player, particularly at the international level. Maybe you abhor the divers, the thugs, and the cheats that are nearly ubiquitous these days, and would like to see a lot of the grabbing, tugging, pulling, and general rugby-like elements removed from the game. Maybe you want to see football move closer to the beautiful, flowing ideal everyone talks about and not even the Brazilians truly obtain.

Maybe you just want jogo bonito.

If you are one of those people, then perhaps we've got some things to discuss.

Problems of Manpower
In no other sport does so much responsibility for how the game plays out rest on one individual: the referee. Fans pay hundreds or thousands of dollars a season to see players (and in some cases, hundreds or thousands of dollars a ticket at the World Cup), and yet the guy who consistently has the greatest effect on a game is the one with a whistle in his hands. Football stars get paid up to $250,000 a week. A referee is lucky if he gets paid $250 a game. This World Cup has shown, often in dramatic fashion, that even if the referees are good at their jobs (and many of them clearly are not), the tasks they are asked to perform are Herculean in nature.

In professional baseball there are 4 umpires on the field during the regular season and 6 during the post-season charged with officiating 18 players. In NFL football, you have 7 officials tracking 22 players. In basketball you get 3 guys following 10, and in hockey you have 4 guys following 12. However, in football, you have 1 referee and 2 linesman calling the game for 22 players on the largest field of any major sport. Asking a ref to properly officiate a free-flowing game with that many players acting on a field that large might as well be the same as asking him to divert an entire river to cleanse some shit-filled stables. In fact, in some games during this Cup, that might just be the most apt description possible of what the referee is supposed to do.

However, that particular problem doesn't signal anything "broken." Poor staffing is easily fixed, provided you aren't completely locked into the idea that there can be only one ref on the field. You can add more bodies to the pitch at any time and bring the average official-to-player ratio closer in line with other major sports.

No, where football is broken is in the discipline system.

Referees and the Discipline System
Referees essentially have two priorities on the pitch. The first is to keep the players safe from other players who are behaving violently. As evidenced by Italy vs. USA and Portugal vs. The Netherlands, the ability of a referee to maintain order when things turn nasty is tenuous at best. The referee's second priority is to maintain the integrity of the game, which includes calling all the other fouls that are not violent. This is where the major failing has occurred in World Cup 2006.

The record number of yellow and red cards by the end of the Group stage didn't simply materialize out of thin air - referees were clearly told by FIFA that they needed to call the game in a particular fashion before the Cup, and they tried to stick to that. Once again, in principal, cracking down on all the things FIFA wanted stopped, which includes tackles from behind and fouls that interfere with scoring chances, is a good thing. What's shocking is that FIFA instituted new guidelines at the World Freaking Cup, and have then backpedaled in the middle because they realized they screwed up. Where was the test bed for this system and the referees who were trained in match conditions to implement them? Putting something new like this into place at the game's showcase, which only occurs once every four years and which approximately 3 billion people watch is idiocy in the extreme.

The record number further illustrates what a failure the discipline system is. In football you have fouls, yellow cards, and red cards. That's it. A foul is just a foul until it's a yellow card or a red card. Yellow cards and red cards mean suspensions. Suspensions mean stars are not on the field, which is bad for the game unless there is a good reason for it (like violent behavior). In principle, the system is fine. It's highly flexible and gives the referee the maximum amount of leeway in a game filled with grey areas. In practice, however, it is a massive failure, especially when it comes to actually enforcing the rules.

Professional players are going exploit the rules to the absolute maximum that they are allowed. In fact, one could say that it is in their job description. Unfortunately, this desire is generally contrary to that of the fan, who would prefer to see good football, and referees are ill-equipped to make sure players follow the rules. Say, for example, a player keeps walking up the back of the other players in the middle of the field. This is an obvious foul and gets whistled constantly in every single game. How exactly does one penalize a player for this behavior? Now, the ref can eventually give this player a yellow card for persistent infringement, but say the player still does it, but this time only on important plays. Do you red card someone for it? Technically the answer is yes, but few referees I know of have the huevos required to do such things. Additionally, if they did hand out a red for such a thing, you could expect the ref to be ripped apart in the media and possibly by FIFA itself.

If you think that sort of foul is a pain in the ass to correct, don't even get me started on grabbing and shirt-pulling. Those are fouls, plain and simple. In fact, they are fouls that ruin that game. Sadly, they are so rampant that people just say, "Oh, that's normal." They may be commonplace, but they are still against the rules, yet referees are essentially powerless to stop this behavior because they only wield big sticks. Imagine what the game would be like if players weren't constantly slowing attacking players down by grabbing their shirts, shorts, or wang.

Now imagine the outcry if a ref were to give Sergio Ramos a red card for only his fourth instance of shirt-tugging (which would likely still occur in the first half), and you'll see why actually enforcing these rules are impractical. Persistent infringement, while useful in certain instances, is actually a joke.

Fix the Obvious
Football matches are decided by fewer points/goals/runs than any other sport. In fact, it is likely this absence of scoring that gives the sport its charm, since every scoring chance carries a tension and excitement that might not exist otherwise if scores ended 10-9 or even 4-3 with frequency. That said, people watch the game to see players score. So wouldn't it be nice if we made certain that goals that were actual goals (like France's vs. South Korea) actually get counted? That particular call (or not-a-call, if you like) dramatically changed the outcome in the group, which in turn affected seedings going into the knock-out stage, and gave us the France vs. Spain matchup in the round of 16 instead of France vs. Ukraine and Switzerland vs. Spain. France v. Spain was a great game, but a botched, yet obvious and easily reparable ref call in the second game of the group stage illustrates the fact that one goal can make all the difference in the world, especially at the World Cup.

The solution here is clear: you institute instant replay or some sensor in the balls that tell you whether or not a goal has occurred. Scoring in football is rare enough that you absolutely must give a team credit when it actually occurs, even if the referee and his linesman are blocked/not in position/fail to see it. This one is so important and so obvious that no further explanation should be needed.

Additionally, when the referee does something to actively change the scoring, like award a penalty kick, wouldn't it be nice if someone were there to review it immediately? Forget simple games, entire tournaments hinge on these decisions. It only makes sense to get a second pair of trained eyes to at least take a look and see if they agree. Humans are fallible, especially when attempting to observe events occurring at an extremely fast pace - events that are often intentionally disguised or falsified by the participants themselves. Create an instant replay official to review goals, penalties, and red card offenses with a 60 or 90 second review period, and you will dramatically change the game for the better. If the replay official doesn't see conclusive evidence of a change, then the referee's call stands.

Ch-ch-ch-changes...
Something has to be done about all the grabbing and tripping that goes on during the game. It's certainly illegal and by penalizing it in some meaningful fashion, you move the game back towards a more ideal, free flowing contest. Therefore, the next change I would implement would be to borrow a system from indoor soccer and institute the use of blue cards and a penalty box for minor infractions. This World Cup has proven to me that you have to have some sort of mechanism in place to actually penalize persistent infringement in a way that matters, and yellow cards aren't it. Therefore, a subsystem needs to be created to deal with the problem more effectively.

In my opinion, you can leave yellow and red cards in place, but shift minor infringements to blue cards. 3 blue cards would remove a player from the pitch for a period of time (either 10 or 15 minutes, which should be long enough to make players uncomfortable about hitting the box), during which time that team would be forced to play a man down. After serving the penalty, the player is reinstated into the game and can continue as normal unless they accumulate 6 blue cards in a game, in which case they are dismissed for good. (Truthfully, I like the concept of 5 getting you the boot, but some people like symmetry.) However, instead of receiving a mandatory suspension for the next game, players dismissed for blue card fouls would be able to play in the next match.

Arguments about slowing down the game are meaningless here, since these fouls all cause a stoppage of play when they are called, and it doesn't take much time for a ref to write down a player number and infringement code. Besides, if the game is actually played how it was meant to be played, there will be fewer fouls in total because players don't want make that extra foul and hurt their teams by getting the boot.

Will it work? I don't know, but steps need to be taken to fix a game that has become degenerate far too often at the highest levels. Don't tell me these things can't be done, and done well. Both professional basketball and professional hockey dramatically changed how they enforced the rules in the past year, returning to a truer interpretation of the rulebook for their sports and cleaning up the stupid fouls that decrease scoring and worsen how the game plays. Taking these steps has unequivocally improved the product on the field for both games.

There are two more changes I would like to see in how the game is officiated, and both of these are at the administrative level. The first change I would like to see is a push for longer suspensions for players that cause injuries or commit violent conduct. Football is a tough sport, and it causes tempers to flair. However, there's no place on the pitch for people who can't control their tempers and end up attempting to injure other players. A friend of mine was commenting on the injury to Christiano Ronaldo saying, "sometimes you just need to remove a guy from the game." That's unacceptable. If you can't mark a player without cheating, you deserve to lose, as simple as that. It's ironic that Ronaldo is the example here, because no team better exemplifies the whiney, cheatey nature of sport than the Portuguese, but he was the one the Dutch set out to injure badly enough to make sure he was removed from the game.

Once again, keeping stars on the pitch is extremely important to the health of the game, and cracking down on players who try to take opposing players out of the game is an absolute necessity. Violent players need to be suspended for lengths of time that hurt. Fine not just small dollars, but actual wages (this is easier to do at the domestic level). Make it hurt, and make it so teams are interested in trying to keep their players in line as well.

The last change I would institute is sort of the opposite of the last one. I would make certain that every yellow and red card given out at the World Cup were reviewed for validity, and immediately reversed if found to have little or no merit. Refs screw up, we all understand that. Admitting it occurs should not be a difficult topic to broach, and it's understood that what happens during a game that affects the scoreline cannot be questioned during the game, but after the fact is another matter entirely. By doing this and questioning the ref involved, you would not have Michael Essien watching Ghana painfully from the sidelines for a nothing foul supposedly committed against the United States that even Bruce Arena was scratching his head about. Once again, making sure the stars are on the pitch is prioritized, it doesn't undermine a ref's authority during the game, and yet it still attempts to make sure the calls are correct in the end. Everyone can see the referees are fallible - admit when something was wrong, fix it, and move on.

Reality Bites
So with all of that now on the table, the question becomes: Do I think any of these ideas will be put into action before the World Cup in South Africa? Realistically, I think FIFA will either put the ball sensor or goal instant replay in place by 2010. I also think they'll probably take some minor administrative steps like further reviewing of cards into account, and I think they'll even start some pilot multi-referee programs, but it's extremely unlikely they go further than that unless forced in some way to do so. The governing body is a giant bureaucracy, and as such is phobic of change. I'm certainly not the first to suggest a modified version of the indoor system has a place in the outdoor game, and I likely won' t be the last. It's also unlikely that we will see such a system put into place in my lifetime.

What's clear to me after watching over 40 games since the start of the Cup, is that the referees and more specifically, the system they are supposed to enforce, are failing the fans at the World Cup level. The rules as they exist in writing are acceptable, but the way that they are enforced contributes to lower scoring, decreased star exposure and field time, and increased thuggish behavior. Unless FIFA makes some considerable changes in manpower and how fouls are enforced, we can expect more of the same four years from now.

Football is a sport and business that produces revenues in the tens of billions of dollars per year - as consumers of the product of this business, we have a right to demand better.

Unfortunately, when played in the fashion generally exhibited at the 2006 World Cup, jogo bonito is hardly beautiful.

Author's Note: If this entry strikes a chord, feel free to repost this wherever you like, but please include a link to http://footballknuts.blogspot.com/.

Round of 16 Predictions, Part II

2006-06-26T11:00:00.000-04:00

The man of the match in Portugal vs. The Nederlands goes to...

I'm short on time for this one, so it'll have to be a quickie. There's a rant about Portugal vs. The Netherlands that's been milling around in my head for a little while yet, but it's not fully formed, so will probably end up as the header to a news and notes column in a day or two.

I am now convinced that Sven Goran Eriksson is the professional golf of football when it comes to tactical team management. In big games, his squads will simply not be fun to watch, regardless of who is on his squad, thus absolutely killing every fan's viewing pleasure. Every England game thus far has been occasion to fall asleep on the couch, and it's highly unlikely to change, though it was good to see England's goats come up big for them in an important game (and I'm shocked to find myself actually riding the Hargreaves bandwagon). I'm not exactly sure when England became Italy, but that's certainly what they look like these days, and I suspect it will continue as long as he keeps managing them. If it works for them and they win the World Cup, great... he got the result everyone wanted. If not, it's been a long, boring ride that I would prefer to never repeat. Football is supposed to be entertaining. England matches hardly fit that description. I'd almost rather watch John Daly's reaction after he shanks a drive, and that's pretty goddamn desperate.

Italy vs. Australia
Oddly enough, this is the match that I expected to get pretty rough from the get go - partly because Hiddink coaches his sides to play that way against better teams and partly because the Italians can't seem to help themselves. FIFA may have instructed referees to immediately crack down on that sort of stuff now that the Klitchko v. Lewi... erm, Portugal vs. Netherlands match has gone down, which could change this game dramatically (and likely in favor of the Italians). That said, I think the Italians are in real danger here. Australia plays a lot like the U.S. except with more skill, and Hiddink's teams are always fit. Additionally, Aussies already play in heat at home, so Germany isn't anything new to them, while the Italians have certainly shown some wear in their early games. Today's game is early, and Germany has been sweltering lately.

If Italy's strikers finally wake up, I think they win this, because they are going to get chances against Australia's back line. However, if they continue to slumber through this tournament like they have at nearly every other World Cup in recent memory, then the Aussies might just pull this one out. Italy's odds appear to be around 3.5:1 at the bookies, and I think it's much closer to 2:1, making Oz a good bet in my mind, should one be interested in that sort of thing.

Switzerland vs. Ukraine

Senderos gave fans one of my favorite images of the World Cup.

Boring vs. Boringer. That's what most people might think on this matchup, but I haven't found the Swiss to be that boring. Yes they lack bona fide superstars, but Senderos, Frei, and Barnetta have played just below that level so far and deserve some respect. Ukraine have looked terrible in the World Cup minus 90 minutes of Saudi bashing, while the Swiss have looked consistently good. The loss of Senderos will hurt them (he's out with a shoulder injury) because he has been nothing short of incredible thus far, but I don't think it will come into play against a misfiring Ukrainian offense that probably couldn't score a goal against the Swiss U21 side.

Brazil vs. Ghana
No Essien, no chance. It's as simple as that. Brazil have finally rubbed the sleep out of their eyes and will start firing on all cylinders, so now we'll see what they look like when they actually care.

Spain vs. France
The best match of the Round of 16, and another pick 'em. If this were just team vs. team, it would literally be a push for me, since talent seems about equal on both sides, even with Spain squashing opponents beneath their high-scoring boots. However, Domenach is involved on the France side, giving Spain a heavy edge. I hate to see Henry bow out this early, but overcoming a bad coach is really tough at this level, and Spain are playing very well.

Now if I can just get two goals from Torres so that my golden boot prediction will again have life...

Real Life Football Manager - Best Buys from the Group Stages

2006-06-25T10:03:00.000-04:00

Sometimes it's fun to pretend the real world exists as a Football Manager-like vehicle* for you to speculate as to who you would like to buy, should you just happen to find yourself managing a giant football club. Silly? Perhaps. But folks need to dream about football, just like they need to think about what they would do if they win the lottery next week. And hey... maybe you slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Today you get to pretend you are this man, minus the perpetual pout.

A few caveats before we begin. First of all, during or shortly after the World Cup is the worst time possible to buy players. Player values at the Cup skyrocket, while a maximum of 7 games is a particularly small sample size to see whether a player is actually good or if he's just enjoying a good run of form surrounded by outstanding teammates. There are a billion examples of craptastic buys made directly after the World Cup where players never came close to panning out at the club level (half of them were on the Senegal team from 2002), thus making your purchases closer to hitting the craps tables in Atlantic City than buying a sure thing. Thankfully, we don't care. I just wanted to point out that we are aware of the circumstances and would behave differently if we, you know, were managing an actual club side that was not named Chelski.

The other thing to note here is that we (I expect you to chime in with your own opinions here) are doing here is not naming players that are already superstars. Assume everybody knows Henry, Zidane, Ronaldinho, Zlatan, Ballack. What we're looking for here are guys who may not be famous yet, but probably should/will be after Germany. If you have questions on this, save them for a bit until after you've read my choices, which should clear most of them up.

Defense
Arthur Boka - Ivory Coast
Boka plays his club football for Strasbourg, and was perhaps the best player minus Drogba on the pitch for the Ivory Coast throughout their 3 group games. An extremely fast left back, his service from the wings was very impressive, as was his work rate. He's a little smaller than most teams like for their defensive line these days, but being a left or right back generally mitigates that, and any team looking for a fast fullback who is always willing to get involved in the attack should take a closer look at how Boka did when playing for Strasbourg. You have to love a full back who can actually deliver accurate crosses.

Phillip Lahm
The inaugural goalscorer of the 2006 World Cup is also one of its breakout stars. Dubbed "The Magic Dwarf" by German tabloids (bad beat on that one), Lahm has been instrumental in kickstarting the impressive German attack with his overlapping runs on the left hand side of the defense. After the early mistakes against Costa Rica, he's been part of a defense that has hardly given opposing teams a sniff. Though he plays for German giants Bayern Munich, Jose Mourinho has reportedly already tabled a hefty bid in his endless search for the perfect left back. Judging just by World Cup performance, Lahm would certainly be a better choice than previous target Ashley Cole.

Plus, if he moves, you’re bound to see a bevy of Hannibal Lechter headlines from the English tabloids, and who wouldn’t want that?

Oguchi Onyewu
Reader "Mouth" will doubtless disagree with this, but Gooch was one of the best players on the U.S. team and has shown he can shut down top-notch forwards consistently at the international level. A beast of a man who clearly lifts weights to make sure his upper body is stronger than any forward he will face, Gooch is great in the air and reads the game pretty well. He's a relatively new addition to the U.S. MNT, and clearly needs some work on controlling forwards with his body and positioning instead of his hands and arms, but he clearly has great potential and is rumored to have already signed a contract with EPL team Middlesboro.

John Mensah
The so-called Rock of Djiporta was one of the key players in helping Ghana advance out of the group of little death. Built like a smaller Onyewu, Mensah has more experience playing at top levels against crafty forwards and it shows in his game. He's considered to be one of the better defenders in the top French league, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him move to one of the bigger leagues in the next six months. It will also be interesting to see how he handles Brazil's bullish forwards in their round of 16 match.

Juan Pablo Sorin
This one is dodgy because everybody knows who Sorin is, but despite watching him play some in La Liga and in the Champions League, I didn't understand that he was this good. An absolute joy to watch whether he is attacking or defending, Sorin just turned 30, but like Roberto Carlos, he plays like he's ageless, running up and down the flank to get in on attacks while making destructive tackles when forced to track back and defend. Ayala is the rock of the Argentine defense, but Sorin is just as good at his position and should get as much credit.

Sorin seems to get transferred about once every 18 months, which implies that he has some hidden "issues" that I'm not aware of (translation: he might be a dick or he fails to shower - one of the two), but after seeing him play for Argentina this Cup, whatever squad he's on (and he currently plays with teammate Riquelme for Villareal in Spain) has now become a must-watch game for me.

Midfield
Bastian Schweinsteiger

Who would that be, Tommy? Ze Germans?

Another relatively unheralded Bayern Munich youngster, Schweinsteiger has been the yin to Ballack's yang for Germany thus far. He's shown real quality in the attack, linking up extremely well with the German strikers and showing a pretty solid work rate as well. Plus he's young - only 22.

Looking at Schweinsteiger's face makes me think he'd fit in just fine on the set of a Guy Richie movie (perhaps Snatch 2 has a World Cup plot?), the guy has clearly had his nose broken a couple of times, but he seems tough too, like he's broken someone else's nose to boot. I wonder what "Oy!" sounds like with a German accent... This in turn has spawned the hope that some English club will cough up the big dough necessary to sign him before the next World Cup rolls around.

In fact, seeing how good these kids are makes think Bayern are ready to destroy the Champions League next year. Nobody wants that.

Stephen Appiah
Michael Essien’s midfield counterpart was the man of the match against the United States and while he’s not rocket fuel like the Chelsea player, but he’s pretty diesel. One of the things I really like about the Ghana players is that they are all powerfully built, giving them something extra when they are on the ball (and not flopping on the ground like they were shot during the second half against the USA). Appiah has solid skill on the ball, good vision, and tackles like Mike Singletary in his prime. He deserves better than being stuck playing for Fenerbahce in Turkey.

Maxi “Adam Sandler” Rodriguez

Rodriguez had the game winning goal and a huge movie opening this weekend.

This was written before his ridiculous goal against Mexico, but needless to say his stock has been raised further.

Argentina’s midfield is loaded, but at times Maxi Rodriguez has been the best player on the pitch. His runs up the right side of the field have made the Argies considerably more dangerous, and his contributions have been a helluva lot more than two (now three) goals. Originally I just felt he was hard-working and fast, but now I’m convinced he’s capable of brilliance. He plays his club football for Atletico Madrid, but considering the difficulty one can have these days of finding an attacking right-sided midfielder who can attack AND defend, I think he’s certain for bigger things. Like “Click.”

Omar Bravo
I’m not convinced Bravo is a true forward, but I love his movement and what he brings to the game. His two goals against Iran were quality, and he’s one of the best players in the Mexican League. If he were to move to a bigger Europe club, his size might force him to move back slightly into an attacking midfielder role, but I think he’d adapt to that position pretty easily. Then again, maybe he’d just be a less obnoxious Craig Bellamy. I said previously that I think more Mexican League players could be making their way overseas, and I think Bravo deserves the chance if he wants it.

Honorable mention: Clint Dempsey

Forwards
I’m going to leave this one up to you guys – who have you seen that isn’t a superstar yet, but that you love to watch play?

* For those Americans who have never heard of it, Football Manager (currently in its 2006 edition) is perhaps the most addictive sports simulator on the planet. A mega-blockbuster seller in Europe, FM can be completely overwhelming to the novice, but if you stick with it, it offers you just about everything a fan could possibly imagine with regard to being able to manage one of the world's major or minor football teams. You get to do everything from buy and selling players, resigning them to contracts, setting tactics and training, scouting players and teams, etc, blah, foo... basically anything that does not involve the actual kicking of a ball is possible. If you are at all the "manager" type and you like football, I highly recommend checking it out, assuming of course, that you don't mind losing days of your life to playing video games.

Round of 16 Predictions and More

2006-06-24T11:28:00.000-04:00

It's time to get to it - predictions for all of the Round of 16 games will follow, but first a review of my predictions to start the tournament.

Reviewing My Mistakes
I got 12 of 16 right in my original Group predictions for who would advance. The teams that failed me were the USA, Croatia, Ivory Coast, and Poland. Of those, two were half-hearted picks (USA and Poland) that I would not have put any money on, while two were just wrong (Ivory Coast and Croatia). The teams taking their places are the dominant Argentina, Ecuador, Ghana (who I felt was a good long-shot bet at the start), and the surprising Australia.

Exactly two true underdogs made it through to the 16, which is a bit surprising considering how strong some of the groups were and how bad certain favorites played. France and Ukraine tried really hard to screw things up on the final day, but still managed to make it through. Fitness was a major issue, with far more goals coming in the final 15 minutes than in any other period, and it proved to be the undoing or Iran, Japan, and Croatia. Exactly one team with four points failed to make it into the knockout rounds (South Korea), once again proving that under the current structure, a win and a draw is pretty much the magic number unless you get really unlucky.

Germany vs. Sweden

The Swedes can't beat these guys right now - no one can.

The Germans are now the favorites for me. Yes, they didn't play anybody great in their group phase, but they destroyed every team they encountered. Their strikers are in great form, Ballack looks unhampered by injury and imperious, and any problems at the back seem to have been quickly fixed after the Costa Rica game. Almost any Euro squad is a favorite at home to anyone short of Brazil, and these guys aren't "any Euro squad." This team is basically France in 1998, except with better strikers and slight downgrades most other places.

As much as I like Sweden, Zlatan's injury has me worried enough about their attack that I'm not sure they can score against this team. They roughed up England a bit in a game England needed to make sure they drew, but they haven't exactly looked dangerous outside of that game. When I picked the Swedes to upset the Germans weeks ago, Germany just wasn't this good.

Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexican team practically has to make this into a rugby match in order for them to have a chance. A good ref could make this game awesome, but a bad one will make it unwatchable. Argentina is a 6:1 favorite here according to the betting lines, but they can't be more than 3 or 4:1 in reality. Mexico has every chance to upset them here.

I don't think they will, mind you - Argentina can play rough, and they just have too much firepower at every position for Mexico to handle - but it will be closer than any non-Mexico fan thinks it will be. Mexico would like to absorb and counterattack in this game, but I think Pekerman warns his team to keep them off that, and even if he doesn't, Argentina's back line are outstanding. A scoreline around 2-0 for Argentina seems about right.

England vs. Ecuador

Overrated? Hardly. (And I love this ad.)

It always shocks me how people can be haters about players on the England squad with no real justification. I mean, sure... there are some stinkers here, but the world class players really are world class. Before the tournament I got comments that Rooney is completely overrated and that England could easily sink or swim without him. That's ludicrous. Rooney changes every game he's in. He has the rare combination of speed, power, and vision to test any set of central defenders in the world, and when he's healthy, he's the stones. Yes, he has some anger management issues, but he's also the most tenacious and dogged player on his team short of Steven Gerrard, which is saying a lot. He also has a work rate that one rarely sees from a player with this much hype.

Then just a few days ago, someone tried to tell me that David Beckham is overrated and has been for his entire career. Let's take a moment to set the record straight, shall we? Beckham is one of the great right-sided midfielders of all time at the club level. He creates the most valuable commodity possible for a team in need of attack: accurate crosses. Quality service into the box is tougher to find than an English cabbie in New York City, and one need look no further than all the teams exiting this World Cup for proof that this is true. Nobody has provided better crosses throughout his career than David Beckham. Even last season in Spain, when Beckham had clearly aged far beyond his best, he created 17 more scoring chances than anyone else in La Liga, in four fewer games than the closest runner up. Hello? Love him or hate him, he's hardly overrated.

Now it's true that at the national team level he's had some rough days that he and pretty much all of England would like to forget. Regardless, he's also produced magic on far too many occasions for anyone to be bitter about him continuing to play. You aren't benching David unless he's seriously injured, and just like I said last time, I think you can expect him to perk up quite a bit in the knockout rounds, just like you expect Brazil to do the same . Look for 60 to 70 good minutes from Beckham and then 20 minutes of lightning from Lennon.

So uh... as for the game, England face a tough test here. Ecuador are like Paraguay, except with more skill on the ball, which should cause English pulses to beat a little quicker. The defense will play better than they did against the Swedes, but Ecuador are good and they have nothing to lose. Tenorio is every bit as good as he looked in the group stage and could cause problems for Terry and Ferdinand if he's allowed to run at them. I think England needs to get on the board first and then continue to play attacking football, though it's unlikely Sven will let them do that. If Ecuador score first here, it could be a very long day, but I think Sunday will be the first time the true quality of English football shows through in the entire tournament, and they win this one relatively comfortably.

Portugal vs. The Netherlands
A classic pick'em, and the best match of the weekend. Which Portugal team shows up, the whiny, divey one or the one with all the skill? The Dutch should be scared shitless about this game, because while Portugal might be a bit more inconsistent, they match them for skill at nearly every position. This match will feature the best winger play in the tournament from Robben, Ronaldo, Van Persie, and Figo, and assuming it doesn't turn into a hackfest, the scoring chances should come fast and furious.

I had the Dutch winning their group in the preview and therefore saddled with a much easier round of 16 game. Portugal are quite a bit tougher than Mexico. In fact, I still think this is Portugal's year, and think they will squeak through in this match, a prediction my Dutch friends will absolutely hate.

Dear God

2006-06-23T11:28:00.000-04:00

I'll have the usual full article later today, but I just wanted to note that the refereeing for the last two days has been almost soul-crushingly bad. The cards and calls in this Ukraine vs. Tunisia game alone are enough to force wailing and gnashing of teeth from any fan of the game. Ukraine hardly looked like they wanted this game, they got a gift of a red card in the first half, should have given up a penalty from a handball on a free kick, and then get what may have been a phantom penalty in their favor in minute 71. Ridiculous.

Is the fix in? Betting on this sport is so much more scary when you realize just how much of an effect the refs have.

USA vs. Ghana Recap

2006-06-22T12:16:00.000-04:00

Two mistakes for the U.S. defense, two goals for Ghana. That’s as simple as it gets and tells the entire tale in this one. It felt a little bad to be hard-done by the penalty against Onyewu, which was much more a case of big guy vs. small guy for a ball in the air and not a foul, but it’s time to face facts:

The United States did not deserve to advance.

There were too many bad touches, too many terrible passes, too many mistakes on defense, and not enough creativity on the ball when it was needed. I mentioned during the Group E review that I wasn’t sure U.S. football had advanced much since 2002. We have not developed any world class players, and while the squad was certainly deeper, it was not noticeably better across the starting lineup. After watching this squad play for three games against excellent competition, I feel I was right.

The U.S. has no truly dangerous players to a good defense, which hamstrings the entire offensive attack. Every single pass has to be perfect in order to create chances, and the U.S. can’t seem to weight passes with any skill at all. How many passes did you see ping off a player’s feet because it was hit too hard? That’s the explanation for the anemic offense. Landon Donovan is great for MLS, but highly mediocre against non-Concacaf opposition. The two supposedly best skill players on the team can’t get or remain healthy enough to play together in the midfield. There are also holes all over the squad, including at right and left back, right mid, and striker.

I don’t think Arena killed this team, but he certainly didn’t help them. He was too conservative, they got off to a poor start, and the offense never showed up. Maybe the horses weren’t there, but nothing Bruce did was daring and the U.S. needed some daring, especially in the last game.

1 goal. 1 point. 1 embarrassing loss. I’m not surprised by our results here, but as a fan, I still have to admit I am disappointed. Oh well… there’s always 2010.

Looking forward, assuming Johnson develops to replace McBride, you still have the entire midfield minus Mastroeni and Donovan to replace, you need to develop right and left backs, and you have to find another striker, preferably one who is consistent and is good in both the air and with his feet. Lots of guys exist to replace Pope, but it remains to be seen whether they can play mistake-free football, which is what will be required (and is what Eddie didn’t play). That’s a lot of guys to discover or develop in a relatively short period of time.

As for Ghana, they looked swell. They had a tough battle against a game opponent and did everything necessary to get the win. The punishing of Reyna’s mistake was beautiful and lethal, and the defense was more than enough to handle the U.S. With Italy up 1-0, Ghana only ever needed a draw, and they got the win instead. Great work by a very dangerous team that I viewed as a good value for a longshot bet in this group, and they should prove very dangerous to Brazil in the next round, though Essien’s dodgy yellow and subsequent absence from their round of 16 match will hurt then tremendously. I think Brazil stop sleepwalking through the tournament at this point and destroys them, but it was a great run and the Black Stars are a lot of fun to watch.

No More Owen and USA vs. Ghana Preview

2006-06-22T00:44:00.000-04:00

Well, any controversies about whether or not Michael Owen should be starting or even be on the team have now been completely settled in the most gruesome-to-watch fashion possible. I feel bad for him - Mike's a likeable guy who is great to watch when he is on form, and you can't wish an ACL rupture on anybody, especially when you have to watch it do so on live television. This is especially awful since Owen was just coming off another craptacular injury earlier in the season and now has probably a full year before he can expect his knee to function as expected. And that's only if everything goes well for him. With his injury history, Glenn Roeder may just have to stick a fork in Owen and cut his losses.

Attach this to the goal and Lampard would still fail.

The questions now become: who starts in Owen's place, and do England have to change their formation to deal with it? From a fan's perspective, it would have been swell for England to advance in imperious form, dominating every team they encountered and hanging cricket scores on opposing defenses. Thankfully for fans, though they did not get the desired scoring or quality of play, they generally got the desired results. England made it through at the top of their group and don't have to face ze Germans or Argentina until the finals. They also learned that Joe Cole, John Terry, and Stephen Gerrard are the best members of the team, Peter Crouch is at least passable at the World Cup level, and Wayne Rooney should be fit enough to play full games from here on out. On the flip side, they learned that David Beckham plays like he's 34 and still disappears from games, that Ashley Cole has apparently forgotten how to play left back, and that Frank Lampard cannot hit the broad side of the barn with his shot, and would likely still fail to do so even if you attached a tether from said broad side to the ball. That's useful information.

Now what to do about it?

I'm still not sold that Owen Hargreaves is good outside of a substitute role at the end of games. I mean, I think he's better than Carrick, but Carrick looked lost at this level when I saw him play (though I think he can grow out of that, just not at the World Cup). If you assume that Crouch is definitely going to start now and that Walcott/Lennon will have to see more time off the bench, then you have major problems if Crouch/Rooney gets injured because you have absolutely no good cover. Gerrard can still be moved up front, but you have to tell him he needs to play like a striker if you do, and if you move Gerrard then you lose one of your two best midfielders. In short, all scenarios are pretty ugly unless Walcott plays like a wunderkind, though that sort of thing has certainly happened before.

For now, I think you press forward with the normal lineup and expect that David Beckham has been saving himself for the important matches in the knockout stage. He was more than willing to do just enough to get by in the group, but this is his legacy for England, and I'm certain you will see better performances out of him now unless he's injured and no one knows about it. Once again, I don't think England should be worried any more than normal, though I certainly wouldn't wager any money on them winning this think at 6.5:1 either.

Oh, and anyone who says Rooney is overrated is an idiot. His first 30 minutes on the pitch were more than Owen had done in his last 3 hours of play. Wayne matters. 'Nuff said.

The Swedes looked pretty reasonable out there as well, especially in the second half. I like the lineup featuring Kallstrom and Jonssen to start, and though they obviously need Zlatan to have a big game and give them a chance against ze Germans, I would not be disappointed to see Allback partner him in attack instead of Larson (though to be fair, Larson is fine too). Their defense is solid, but I'm not sure it will be enough to get them past a German squad whose strikers are firing on all cylinders.

Oh Mexico
This team is completely schizophrenic, playing at times like a squad destined to do great things, and at other times looking utterly beatable by the likes of Angola. His penalty miss aside, I think Bravo is a player capable of playing in Europe, while Marquez is every bit as good as advertised, but their supporting cast could certainly use some work. Mexico will have to play against Argentina in the same fashion the U.S. played against Italy in order to have a chance in that match, which could create some very ugly and tense football. People who watch hockey for the fights and NASCAR for the wrecks should really enjoy this one.

USA vs. Ghana Preview

In order to advance, the U.S. need Ghana's defense to crumple like Glass Joe.

Eddie Johnson gets the start, while the rest of the lineup is rejiggered to fill the holes left by the Pope and Mastro red cards. The task here is simple: score goals. If you can't put the bulge in the old onion bag, you aren't advancing, it's as simple as that. Forget goal difference or anything silly like that - the U.S. has to win and have Italy beat the Czechs to advance. Ghana, on the other hand, are also a very strong team who will give the Americans everything they can handle, and probably more. If the U.S. scores an early goal, I think they get a huge boost of confidence and win this one. If Ghana score early, the game will either be a draw or a loss unless Ghana's defense goes down like Glass Joe eating a right cross.

To me the key players in this one will be Landon Donovan and whoever replaces Mastro as Defensive Midfielder (which might just be Reyna, with O'Brien taking Reyna's role as midfield creator). If Donovan gets touches on the ball and plays well for once, then he can put Ghana on their heels and the boys stand a chance. If he disappears in the midst of an aggressive Ghanaian defense, then we might just bow out of the tournament without scoring an actual goal. On the flip side, somebody has to deal with Essien in the midfield and you don't want the entirety of that responsibility to fall on the defense. Fitness may play a factor at the end of the game, since the Americans nearly killed themselves to keep up with Italy, but the final day of this group should be insane. The header "E is for Excitement" that I wrote back in the group review has proven more than correct here.

Prediction: US 2-1, provided they get the first goal.

Big ups to the Elephants, who finally got a win. I'm still sad to see CIV bow out, but I hope they will be back in four years time.

Next Up: My power rankings + players I think would be good buys for club teams.

Just the Stats, Ma'am - Through Game 2

2006-06-21T11:31:00.000-04:00

I haven't had a chance to aggregate all the Sky stats yet, so we'll start with the FIFA stuff. They don't collect nearly enough info for my tastes (or perhaps it's just that they don't publish all the info, which is perhaps more annoying), but regardless, there's enough there to looks at some very early trends.

Tackle Stats

Player	Team	MP	MinP	TC	TS	FC	FS	YC	RC
YORKE Dwight	TRI	2	180	14	9	4	2	1	0
AZIZ Khaled	KSA	2	180	13	5	3	6	0	0
JUAN	BRA	2	180	13	0	4	2	0	0
LINDEROTH Tobias	SWE	2	167	13	2	2	3	1	0
NUNO VALENTE	POR	2	180	13	4	3	1	1	0
FONSECA Danny	CRC	2	118	12	2	2	4	1	0
NEKOUNAM Javad	IRN	2	180	12	3	3	6	2	0
TYMOSCHUK Anatoliy	UKR	2	180	12	0	4	4	0	0
ZEWLAKOW Michal	POL	2	172	12	4	1	4	0	0
ANDRE	ANG	2	168	11	2	6	3	3	1

Player	Team	MP	MinP	TC	TS	FC	FS	YC	RC
HASHEMIAN Vahid	IRN	2	180	1	19	4	1	0	0
VALDEZ Nelson	PAR	2	180	3	18	2	4	1	0
LUIS FIGO	POR	2	177	3	16	4	16	0	0
MENDONCA	ANG	2	180	6	16	7	7	0	0
TORRES Fernando	ESP	2	180	1	15	0	9	0	0
SMOLAREK Ebi	POL	2	180	3	15	3	7	1	0
IBRAHIMOVIC Zlatan	SWE	2	135	2	15	3	1	0	0
RONALDINHO	BRA	2	180	2	14	3	5	0	0
CRISTIANO RONALDO	POR	2	149	0	13	4	11	1	0
ADEBAYOR Emmanuel	TOG	2	180	2	13	6	7	1	0

What's interesting to me right from the start is that 7 out of the top 10 tacklers are midfield (Juan, Nuno Valente, and Zewlakow are all D), though 11 is tied down to #17 or so, and you get more defenders like Sorin down there. I guess this makes sense, since you don't really want your defenders having to make a lot of tackles, because in a good defensive system you'd rather see your midfielders blow things up before it gets to your D. The other thing I know is that you do NOT want your guys making the tackles to be suffering a lot of tackles, since that sort of thing tends to lead to goals and such, which tends to cause losing. I'm looking at your, Dwight Yorke, and you Khaled Aziz.

Foul Stats

Player	Team	MP	MinP	TC	TS	FC	FS	YC	RC
LUIS FIGO	POR	2	177	3	16	4	16	0	0
TONI Luca	ITA	2	141	2	6	3	13	0	0
CRISTIANO RONALDO	POR	2	149	0	13	4	11	1	0
MARQUEZ Rafael	MEX	2	180	9	1	1	10	0	0
PARK Ji Sung	KOR	2	180	4	8	0	10	0	0
TENORIO Carlos	ECU	2	109	0	11	4	10	0	0
VAN PERSIE Robin	NED	2	180	5	3	7	9	0	0
TORRES Fernando	ESP	2	180	1	15	0	9	0	0
KAKA	BRA	2	180	0	10	4	9	0	0
LJUNGBERG Freddie	SWE	2	180	8	11	1	8	0	0

This sort (Fouls Suffered) is particularly interesting, because it includes almost exclusively attacking players who are on the ball a lot. Suffering a lot of fouls is actually a pretty decent thing, since, depending on where you suffer them, they are likely to put your team into position to get good free kicks and occasionally a PK. It also means you probably have pretty decent skill on the ball. What you would like to see here is a guy who gets fouled a lot, but does not get tackled a lot, since it likely indicates a player is particularly clever or strong on the ball, and they are creating almost exclusively good things. Toni, Marquez, and Van Persie are both highly positive in those ratios and it will be interesting to see how these change as the teams get further into the tournament. What you do not want to see are guys who are suffering a bunch of tackles and not getting fouled at all, since all that means is that they aren't playing well with their teammates and aren't creating anything good out of their ball possession either.

Two special things to note here: First, this list is almost exclusively superstars. I'd be interested in seeing if this carries over into domestic leagues. Second... what exactly is Rafa Marquez doing in this set of players? I have some theories, but nothing I really want to venture at the moment.

Level 12 Warriors

Player	Team	MP	MinP	TC	TS	FC	FS	YC	RC
ONYEWU Oguchi	USA	2	180	2	1	10	5	1	0
DELGADO	ANG	2	180	10	1	8	2	1	0
PAREDES Carlos	PAR	2	180	1	5	8	1	1	0
PARDO Pavel	MEX	2	180	3	2	8	1	0	0
CROUCH Peter	ENG	2	180	2	2	8	1	1	0
VAN PERSIE Robin	NED	2	180	5	3	7	9	0	0
MENDONCA	ANG	2	180	6	16	7	7	0	0
MENDEZ Mario	MEX	2	180	11	7	7	6	0	0
BOKA Arthur	CIV	2	180	5	2	7	5	1	0
BRAVO Omar	MEX	2	180	3	8	7	4	0	0
MUNTARI Sulley	GHA	2	180	6	7	7	4	2	0
SEQUEIRA Douglas	CRC	2	180	6	2	7	2	0	0
ADEBAYOR Emmanuel	TOG	2	180	2	13	6	7	1	0
FIGUEIREDO	ANG	2	151	5	5	6	6	0	0
STANKOVIC Dejan	SCG	2	180	2	5	6	6	1	0

Finally we get to the guys that love to hack and slash. I hypothesized that this list would mostly be defenders and defensive mids, but it's intriguing to see a lot of aggressive attacking players near the top of this list. Not one of the leaders has a red card, and only Muntari has a pair of yellows, so these are guys who seem to foul pretty intelligently. I guess the other thing to note is that most of the defenders on this list are on bubble teams - not sure what that means yet, but it's also something to keep an eye on. Might have to do with the style of football they are forced to play...

Through two games, I was right in my prediction for who would win the Golden Boot. Of course, Klose took the lead immediately thereafter, but at least I was right for a short period of time, right?

More later, including England thoughts, Mexico thoughts, and US v. Ghana predictions.

Blood, Sweat, and Cheers

2006-06-19T20:20:00.000-04:00

Greetings. Sorry for the absence and the delays. I am back, both in body and in spirit. I cannot tell you how much it pained me to miss so many games over the last four days. Not physical pain, mind you. No one kicked me in the shins or gave me a headbutt and concussion, or anything remotely painful at all really, not even a nasty hangover. I simply mean that even though I have a job I love that happens to be a lot of fun, I still wanted to be watching football when the good matches were on.

If you are reading this site, you are football fans, even if it’s only for these four splendiferous weeks we call the World Cup. You feel my pain.

Speaking of pain…

How about that U.S. vs. Italy match?
I’ve been in a news blackout, so I haven’t had any chances to read the myriad of stories and opinions that have been written about this game. I’m sure there is much to be learned from Ives Galarcep’s insider accounts in his blog, and I’m sure there is nothing useful said in Michael Davies’ blog on espn.com, yet it will still be fantastically fun to read, but for now you shall get my unadulterated response.

There was no way to know before the game took place how it would go. Would a United States team that has never looked as bad as they did against the Czech Republic since Arena took over step it up and remember how they are supposed to play the game in order to get results? Or did a 3-0 victory crush their spirits just like they were crushed in 1998?

There was so much blood and action in this game that Tarantino is now considering making a football movie his next project.

I was quite happy to see that not only had their spirits not been crushed, but they were strong enough to allow the lads to produce an heroic effort against a very strong Italian team that easily could have blown them out with a lesser performance. And it was a heroic effort in what ended up being a wild and wooly game. I was almost as shocked by the elbow from De Rossi as I was from the geyser of blood from McBride’s face. What the hell was he thinking? You may get away with that sort of thing in Serie A, but BILLIONS of people watch these matches, so even if the ref and his assistants would have missed it, he was still going to be shown doing it on TV. You might as well just put up a sign saying, “Welcome to Italian Donkeyville. Population: De Rossi”

I was not, however, shocked by the red card just before the half on Mastroeni, who made a stupidly strong challenge in front of a ref looking for a reason to issue an equalizer card. It could easily have just been a yellow and a stern warning, but the game was particularly rough, and the ref was justified for that one. The second Pope card? Totally over the top, but what can you do?

Regardless, that provided the setup for redemption, and the boys from the U.S. came through. My criticism of the squad after game 1 was they forgot how to play, particularly through the midfield. We are not as skilled as the best teams in the world, and therefore have to work harder in order to stay even or come out on top. There wasn’t nearly enough work against the Czechs. Against Italy every member of the squad made up for that. Reyna was exactly what he needed to be, Gooch is an outstanding defender even at the highest levels*, and Arena got everything he was looking for out of this team, both mentally and physically.

This result was unbelievably important in what it means for soccer in America. Two more performances like the first one would have set the game back considerably after the headway made in 2002. This result at least stabilizes things, and sets up a huge upsurge should we actually progress out of this complete insane group. I have no predictions for the U.S. vs. Ghana game, but at least now I have hope, and as fans in England will tell you, that’s all you really need to get by.

With Ghana’s result (and they are every bit as dangerous as they looked), the final day of Group E action should be unbelievable.

Dear Eric Wynalda,

Suck it.

Yours trulified,
Football kNuts

Unlucky in Love

This guy gets a 10 for bread AND circuses.

Henry scores, France look better than they have in some time, and yet they still end up with a 1-1 draw. How exactly does that happen? Let me break it down for you. First, when you have one real goal that goes unnoticed, and an obvious penalty kick that goes uncalled, it certainly has the potential to negatively affect your results. The South Korea goal was a little fluky, but clean sheets are tough to hold, and South Korea have impressed me overall. Personally, I feel the blame for the failure to win still rests squarely on Domenach’s shoulders. His system is wrong for his personnel, he has the wrong people playing in the wrong positions, and his game management could use some work as well. In short, France have been a little unlucky in both of their games, but if they were properly managed, I am of the firm belief it would not have mattered because they would be creating more chances and scoring more goals.

The problem here is that unlike with Michael Owen, who can eventually be benched once people are convinced the problem exists and then go through the through the twelve steps of grieving (same for Fat Ron, by the way, though he should probably hit a different twelve-step program), you can’t just yank a manager in the middle of the World Cup. The pressure on the new guy would be too great to handle, no one knows how it would affect the team, and the steel clankers it would take to make that call likely do not exist in most football associations, and particularly not in France. (Said clankers also make it a bitch to get through airport security.)

This just goes to prove that, regardless of how talented your personnel are, it is difficult to win in spite of one’s manager.

* For those who missed it earlier, I went back and rewatched the U.S. vs. Czech game and Onyewu wasn’t bad, he just wasn’t great there.

Match Days 7 and 8

2006-06-17T11:12:00.000-04:00

Uh oh, England

Not content to just do the robot, Peter Crouch decided to also bring back breakdancing against T&T.

Yes, they made it to the elimination round and yes, they scored two goals this time instead of uh… well, sort of none in game 1. However, they just aren’t looking better against teams they should be bashing. England’s wins right now are like Chelsea wins… you are happy that they are still winning, but you feel a little guilty about it as well. Should we be cheering, or should we be disappointed that it’s not more enjoyable? If this were baseball, we’d call it winning ugly and move on because it doesn’t matter how you win as long as you get the result. Unfortunately it’s not - people use current form (however wrongly) as a predictor of future form, and are thus scared shitless that England will once again fail to live up to their potential.

I’m not afraid, but (as I said earlier this week) Owen has been awful, Sven should have seen it before now and done something about it, and now far too much pressure rides on the immediate return to form of Rooney. Regardless, I don’t think anybody knows anything about how this team is going to play until it actually happens. Hang on, England fans – it’s going to be a wild and nervous ride.

Weapons of Mass Destruction
Wow, Argentina kicked it into overdrive against what was supposedly one of the stingiest defenses in the Cup. This equates to nothing less than a complete and utter meltdown by S&M, and serves notice to the rest of the world that Argentina is not only absurdly good, but also absurdly deep. Breaking Messi in like this was great for that team, because now he has a ton of confidence and is ready to take either a starting spot or be a super sub against anybody. I wasn’t sure their starting lineup should be Crespo and Saviola if Messi was healthy and now I’m less sure, though at this point I don’t particularly think it matters who they start up front - these guys think they can beat anybody and they might just be right.

I’m not sure what the extent of Gonzalez’s injuries are and if he’s gone for good then Argentina loses perhaps their top midfield sub, but they have not failed to impress yet. In the pack, Sorin is even better than I thought he was. He had a great game against IC, particularly in the second half and I expect more great things from him throughout the tournament. What was I thinking by not picking them to advance?

I’m going to miss these guys.

Oh yeah, I was gay for Ivory Coast. I still am, actually. I love watching that team play and I’ll be sad to see them go. I hope they at least go out on a high note and get a win over the S&M boys.

Favorites Can’t Fail…
The utter lack of upsets in the tournament is quite surprising, especially since I was under the belief that we were in a new era of parity among the world’s football teams. (For the record, I still do.) Unfortunately the underdogs that were supposed to be dangerous have mostly proven to be whimpering puppies, while the top dogs, in spite of some underwhelming performances, have still managed to put up results.

…But They Can Draw
While there have been some unexpected draws (Mexico, Sweden, France), none of them have really been in the important groups, meaning nearly all of the favorites are likely to make it through. T&T have proven much more game than pretty much anybody could have anticipated while that Mexico vs. Angola game was the boring type of nil-nil draw, as was France v. Switzerland. There’s still a chance that one of those results could knock somebody out (with France the most likely), but at this point in time practically every single favorite has done enough to put them at least in position to get to the knockout stages. I find that both impressive and a little disappointing.

Looking Forward
Today’s stories to watch look like this to me:

Can the U.S. bounce back and not get demolished by Italy? Those guys have gotten killed for the last five days and I’m curious to see whether they use it as motivation or whether they have already packed their bags.

Are the Czechs really that good? A second result against Ghana like the one against the U.S. will certainly lock up their buzz, and it will set the stage for an extremely important Czech vs. Italy matchup next week where the winner gets to avoid Brazil. That one will be an absolute cracker.

Can Australia get another result and become the U.S. team of 2006? Can France overcome the general incompetence of their manager and score some goals? Who will finish second in Group H?

All of these should be interesting to follow for the next few days.

Coming Soon... Er, later anyway

2006-06-16T14:48:00.000-04:00

I'll be updating later this evening with my thoughts about the last two match days. The short of it was that Argentina looked treeeemendous, the Dutch looked alright but easily could have drawn that game (alas, I could not root for Ivory Coast over the Dutch, even though I would have loved to see the Elephants make it through), and Engerland have problems that they may not be able to overcome. They are probably not as bad off as the French, whose manager seems to be terminally stupid, but they have a lot of work to do before their first elimination game in a week.

For now I have to get back to work. Hello to everyone who recently found this site via the AVS Forum (an outstanding site get reviews and feedback on pretty much every Audio-Visual question/item imaginable (I checked there for reviews of my Westinghouse LVM-W3 before I bought it, and it's a helluva nice TV), and also a shout-out to all the folks from Star City who followed the clues in Friday's article.

Until next time, enjoy the show.

Day 6 Analysis

2006-06-14T21:18:00.000-04:00

Spain vs. Ukraine
Ukraine looked absolutely terrible in this game. They couldn't keep possession through the midfield, their defense was porous at best, and Spain's defenders almost completely shut down their wing play. It was difficult to tell how Shevchenko was feeling because he never saw the ball. In short, this was an awful start for a team that many people picked as dark horses to make it deep into the tournament. They'll need to scramble now just to make it into the second round. Meanwhile, all the U.S. fans are thinking, "Thank God we're not last anymore!"

Well, at least not until we play Italy on Saturday anyway.

Captain Caveman came to play.

Of course, a good portion of the credit for Ukraine looking so bad has to go to Spain for looking so good. Their entire team had a gem of a game, producing three real goals and few chances for Ukraine. The defense was stout, the attack was frisky, and Raul came on as a sub and looked dangerous, so it was all good news for the perennial underachievers.

Spain can't get full credit for four goals on this day, however, because David Villa's spot kick and the ejection of Vashchuk were completely blown calls on a challenge that a) was committed outside the box, b) did not actually see the player go down until well after he released the shot, and c) could not have been more fair. Ukraine was robbed there, though they were always going to get spanked regardless of whether Vashchuk was on the field or not. Hopefully the suspension from the next game will be overruled on appeal, but somehow I doubt it.

Fun nicknames from today's game (not even made up):
Carlos "Captain Caveman" Puyol
Fernando "El Nino" Torres
Sergey "Radiohead" Rebrov

I only watched the Tunisia vs. Saudi Arabia game in fast forward, but the last 10 minutes of this game were incredibly exciting, and this draw plus Spain's thrashing of Ukraine puts second place in this group completely up for grabs. If Ukraine recovers their form (and they'll need to look like a completely different team if they expect to win any games), they can still make it out, but if not, the second team to make it out of this group is anyone's guess.

Germany vs. Poland

I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice bottle of Chianti.

Poland came to play on this day and nearly walked out with the result they were looking for. Of course, at least part of that was due to numerous squandered chances by the German attacking force including a double crossbar strike in the final minute of regulation. You could see that Poland was folding after Sobolewski received his red card in the 75th minute, and they were always going to be a little lucky if they held on for the draw after that point, but they almost got there.

Ballack looked fine and fully fit in this game, while Podolsky and Klose proved they will be a very interesting strike force to watch going forward. Podolsky's skill on the ball is almost Brazilian in quality and he's fast. I'd like to see him get more touches in future games, perhaps by dropping a bit deeper into the midfield from time to time, but overall Germany are an unexpectedly fun team to watch. Speaking of fun, Philipp Lahm is my favorite new player to watch. A right-footed left back, he plays solid defense and always seems to be involved in the attack, whether it's via making overlapping runs or simply stepping up for the ball when Germany switch the point of attack. He's also lethal when it comes to crossing the ball, something that far more teams in this tournament wish they were.

It nearly didn't happen, but Germany walked out of today's game as deserved winners and already qualified for the second round. Happy times im Deustchland.

Day 5 Analysis

2006-06-14T01:51:00.000-04:00

I did not get a chance to watch South Korea vs. Togo, so there will be no mindless blathering about Lees, Kims, Ahns, Parks and Togoats/Togeese/Togolese. For those of you disappointed by this news, my sincerest apologies. For those of you looking for brilliant and insightful analysis (Translation: more mindless blathering) about the France and Brazil matches, then you have come to the right place.

And away we go!

France vs. Switzerland

I'm afraid 60,000 fans wearing those glasses and hat would scare the piss out of me.

Everybody hates a backseat manager, but that's exactly what I'm going to do for a few minutes here, so tune me out if you don't like it.

I have never seen a team as talented as France look so awful tactically. I don't know exactly what Domenech is thinking with his lineup and formation, but let's take a step back and look at this objectively. The French World Cup squad includes three world class forwards in Louis Saha, Thierry Henry, and David Trezeguet, all of whom are proven and typically brilliant goalscorers at the club level. Now I'm just an amateur at this sort of thing, but wouldn't it seem to make sense that, unless you had a very good reason, you would want to have at least two of them on the field at any particular time? The squad also includes two incredible midfield bulldogs in Patrick Viera and Claude Makalele, plus a strong back line with two good fullbacks who like to get forward. Oh, and you have Zinedine Zidane still roaming your midfield. So why, exactly are they failing to score goals? Lots of reasons, actually.

First of all, for whatever reason, Domenech has decided he wants his team to play a 4-5-1 with Henry up front as a loan striker. Okay, I can see that - Henry plays in a 4-5-1 at times at Arsenal and they seem to excel at scoring goals. But at Arsenal Henry has world class wingers in Freddie Ljungberg and Jose Antonio Reyes and Robin van Persie and Robert Pires, all of whom are better than Wiltord and Ribery. Even in Arsenal's 4-5-1, Henry rarely lacks for a partner to run with, pass to, play 1-2's around defenders, etc. Additionally Thierry has a very young, spry Cesc Fabregas filling the middle as an attacker.

In the French system? Well, in the French system Henry rarely has anyone at all to play with up front, and the wingers seem to be having this exact same problem. Ribery and Wiltord were consistently stranded on the wings and then dispossessed mostly because they had no one to pass to. "Le Toupee" Zidane's extremely creaky wheels are incapable of keeping up with the rest of the attack force, and while his touch is still brilliant, he seemed out of sync for the vast majority of this match. I also love Patrick Viera, but as much as it pains me to admit it, Patty is getting old. There are a lot of miles on his legs, and he just can't transition from offense to defense like he used to. Since he and Makalele are basically the same player playing the same position, since Makalele does it better, and since somebody needs to make way for a striker, Viera's got to go. It's not like the back line has gaping holes that you need two defensive mids to cover for anyway, and certainly not against the likes of Switzerland.

This is enough to frustrate pretty much anyone.

I'm not sure if Domenech realizes this, but the talents of his skill players are built to play attacking football, and yet he has them locked into this terrible set of restrictions that leaves his squad and the entire country of France completely frustrated. I mean, did you see them today? They looked frustrated. And if you had seen French fans somewhere, they likely would have been chain-smoking and frustrated too. I mean, I was frustrated. How about you, were you frustrated? I bet you were. Because if you weren't frustrated, all you had to do today was watch the match on ESPN2 and listen to Shep Messing relentlessly discuss how frustrated the French attack/team was. This was going on regardless of whether the French were actually playing well and attacking (they had their moments) or not. Needless to say, Shep was the most frustrating part of the entire affair.

I think America as a whole is lucky that most people don't watch football here or else you might just see one disgruntled football fan pick up a rifle, climb a clocktower, and take out their frustrations with Messing's commentary on the rest of us, and nobody needs that.

Back to the French... Henry is a people person. He went to kindergarten, he learned to color inside the lines, and he likes to share. In fact, he's a brilliant passer of the ball who creates about as many goals as he scores. He's like a big, immensely talented greyhound puppy who just wants a fast puppy pal or two to run with. Instead, he's saddled with the hopes of a nation, not enough help, and a bunch of teammates who seem to stop running when he gets the ball just to watch and see what he'll do next.

Give Thierry a friend, Ray. Your team and your nation will thank you for it.

Match analysis? Both teams squandered some chances and ended up with a stinker of a draw. The Swiss defense is good and should be enough to get them through the group, assuming the score a goal or two. Not a whole lot else to say, really.

Brazil vs. Croatia
So these are the world beaters, eh? They don't seem so impressive to me...

Alright, that's a lie, but Croatia looked really good as well, giving Brazil almost more than they could handle. Unfortunately for the lads in the checked jerseys, their strikers decided that Dida was the bullseye between the posts instead of the spot to be avoided, and Brazil escaped with a 1-0 victory and knowledge that Australia and Japan should be easier matches, though certainly not pushovers. I want to see more of Croatia. They seem to play good football, especially for guys who are clearly on the mafia payroll as hitmen when they aren't playing at the club level.

1-nil isn't very exciting, but I can't really blame Brazil too much for this result. The first match of the World Cup is always a tense affair, especially when you are playing ten-on-eleven for 70 minutes. What's that you say? It was eleven-on-eleven? It most certainly was not! I saw Ronaldo standing on the sideline snacking on twinkies and ding dongs for the vast majority of the time he was in the game, so with Adriano struggling a bit as well, it's no wonder Brazil only scored a single goal for all the beautiful, brilliant trouble.

Kaka, Ronaldhino and the back line were very good today, and proved to be enough for Croatia even without a useful strike force. If the rest of the squad should find their form, we might be discussing the six-time World Cup Champions four years from now in South Africa. In the meantime, if Brazil can't find any strikers willing to do some work, they are beatable by almost any team with class, and that includes whichever team makes it out of Group E as the runner-up.

Random Questions

Look ma, it's uncle Sal.

Is it just me, or does Emerson playing for Brazil make it look like your weird, balding, 40-year-old Uncle Sal just happened to stumble onto the pitch and now finds himself playing in the World Cup? Don't get me wrong - he does everything out there. Cooks, cleans, hoovers up loose balls in the midfield, the works... and Brazil need a guy just like him on the field at all times. I'm just saying I thought Cafu was the oldest member of the squad, but after watching Emerson play on Tuesday, now I'm not so sure.

No, I don't need you to tell me that Emerson is the same age as me. I already knew that, thankyouverymuch.

You know why I like Ronaldinho? Because he Never. Fucking. Goes. Down. Nowadays all it takes is a soft breeze and a harsh glance from a defender for most attacking players to fall over in a challenge, but not with Ronaldinho. In fact, you can't even knock him off the damned ball, let alone knock him over. The only way this guy falls down when he's playing is if you hack the hell out of his legs and knees while trying to tackle him and even then there's only a 50/50 chance. And the other thing I love about Ronny? When you knock him over, he stands up right away, dusts himself off, and smiles at you before sticking a dagger in your heart on the free kick. His enthusiasm is infectious, and it is fan-freaking-tastic to watch one of the best players in the world play the game the right way. I hope his reign at the top is long and glorious.

So Spain vs. Ukraine walk into a bar at 9AM, what do they order and who scores the first goal?

Oh and this last thing has nothing to do with football, but it's brilliant and therefore merits a link [You Tube Video for those of you on the syndicated feed]

Day 4 Analysis

2006-06-13T11:38:00.000-04:00

Australia vs. Japan

Cahill is a likeable lad, especially when he scores goals.

Man, what a game - most exciting finish of the World Cup so far. What's startling is just how much Japan was winning until they were suddenly losing. I mean, their goal was a fluke, but they should have had two or three by minute 80 if they were converting with any consistency. Then again, you could have said the same about Australia, and a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline by that point in the game was certainly possible. However, once Cahill (I told you I liked him) scored his goal, Japan immediately wilted, which led to two more dodgy goals to finish. It wasn't a great game technically and someone clearly needs to turn the thermostat down in German or some footballers might die, but it was the most exciting game of the tournament thus far. A good win for the Socceroos.

Epideme asked me the win caused me to change my mind about Australia advancing out of this group. Obviously not. This game was always a pick'em in my mind, and Hiddink is a master at winning these sorts of matches. Unless Japan play big against Croatia, the game that matters is Australia vs. Croatia on June 22nd. Regardless, congrats to the land of Oz for your first-ever goals and win of the World Cup.

Italy vs. Ghana
Italy looked downright predatory in this game. Totti looked fully fit, Luca Toni is even more of a beast to handle at this level than I anticipated, and the defense looked decent, if not impenetrable. The engine is purring, ladies and gentlemen, and that sound you hear is nervous coughing from the rest of the field who are now aware that Italy are healthy and frisky. I think the Italians figure out how to shut Rosicky and Nedved down in the middle and run them ragged in the final match of this group. Remember, that match will actually matter because the runner-up in this group advances to play Brazil immediately, and even if you want to rest your stars, I'm not sure you can do it with the prospect of facing Not Brazil staring you directly in the face. Of course, all that assumes that the two favorites win their next matches as well, which is yet to be decided. Ghana could still play spoiler. The U.S... notsomuch.

Ghana are also a very solid team, and minus Kuffour's heartwrenching error at the back that gave the Italians their second goal, I thought they played pretty well, creating chances and looking very active on the ball. Their finishing is suspect (that's being generous) and will certainly have to improve if they are going to win any games, but after watching these two teams play, the U.S. will be fighting for their lives to avoid embarrassment for the rest of the group stage.

USA vs. Czech Republic, Take 2

As you can tell from the last post, I statted the game last night to see what I would learn from the U.S. performance that wasn't readily apparent the first time I watched it. The first thing I learned is that Onyewu had a better game than I thought. He was really only at fault for the last goal, where he took a bad angle on Rosicky/was just too slow to catch him. If I were Shep Messing, I'd say something here how Gooch was the free safety on that play, Nedved was the quarterback, and Rosicky was the speedy wide receiver who blew right by him to score a touchdown on Kasey Keller. Unfortunately, the U.S. only lost by a field goal, which might make things very confusing for the casual observer. Where was I? Oh right, the other football...

Aside from that gaffe, Gooch was an absolute monster in the air and just in general, marking first Koller and then Lokvenc out of the game, while hoovering everything else in his general area. For the Czechs, their entire back line was stout, with Ujfalusi and Jankulovski particularly impressive, especially in the second half.

I think one of the stories of the match really comes from the crossing stats. 2-28 from the USA was terrrrrrible, while the Czechs went 7-13 with Nedved providing the bulk of the goods. There's more that could be deduced from this, but suffice it to say that the U.S. still stank and the Czechs were still really good. Oh, and Rosicky is even quicker than I thought at first. I hope he continues to have a good Cup.

Overall yesterday had some absolutely scintillating football to watch. Let's just hope today is as good. With Brazil and France finally kicking the ball around, there's a good chance it will be. Allez Les Bleus or however you spell it!

Just the Stats, Ma'Am - USA vs. Czech Rep

2006-06-13T03:00:00.000-04:00

Alright, my technological ignorance is showing today, because I'm having real issues creating an HTML table that doesn't look terrible, so let's try ye olde tab-delimited table and see if I can at least get this posted.

This is my first swipe at recording additional useful stats for football. The current way the game is tracked statistically in the popular media is crap. I'm out to change that and you all get to be my guinea pigs. Look at the material presented below from yesterday's game and be so kind as to give me advice/opinions on the material.

Player	Tak	Int	CLR	XC	MC
USA
Keller	0	0	0	0	0
Cherundolo	0	6	0	0	5
Lewis	2	5	2	0	8
Mastroeni	1	2	0	0	0
Onyewu	1	27	3	0	0
Pope	3	4	1	0	0
Beasley	4	4	0	0	0
Convey	1	2	0	0	8
Donovan	0	0	0	0	1
Reyna	2	8	0	1	2
McBride	0	1	1	0	2
O'Brien	1	4	0	1	0
Johnson	0	1	0	0	0
Wolff	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	15	64	7	2	26
Czech Republic	Tak	Int	CLR	XC	MC
Cech	0	0	0	0	0
Grygera	2	4	2	1	1
Jankulovski	3	16	1	0	1
Rozehnal	1	9	6	0	0
Ujfalusi	1	21	5	0	0
Galasek	2	15	0	0	0
Nedved	2	5	0	4	3
Plasil	3	2	0	0	0
Poborsky	2	2	0	1	1
Rosicky	1	1	1	0	0
Koller	0	1	0	0	0
Lokvenc	0	1	0	0	0
Polak	0	0	0	0	0
Stajner	0	0	0	1	0
Totals	17	77	15	7	6

Tak = Tackles
Int = Interceptions
CLR = Clearances
XC = Crosses on Target
MC = Crosses Missed

Category Explanations
Tackles: A tackle occurs when one player takes the ball away from the feet of another player who is in control of the ball.

Interceptions: An interception occurs when one player cuts out a pass or wins a 50/50 ball from the other team. This happens a lot during the course of the game and includes headers won on high balls driven from goalies and defensive players to the opposing team's back line. It does not, however, include balls that are easy to run on to or balls that simply fall to a player in the area. Some effort must be made in order to obtain the ball and be credited with an INT.

Clearances: These are clearances made from inside the 18 yard box. It's essentially an interception in a specific area of the field. Tackles in this area are counted under tackles.

Crosses on Target: This category covers crosses into the box that make it to the head or feet of a teammate.

Missed Crosses: These are crosses that do not make it to the head or feet of a teammate and are cut out by opposing defenders, goalkeepers, or ones that simply miss and run out of play.

Issues
These are not perfect, but they are as perfect as I could make them, while knowing that I'm still working the kinks out of the process. There are minor misses inherent in the fact that sometimes the coverage is showing replays while the game restarts, and also because even with a 37 inch HD feed, you can't always tell exactly who did what with the ball. Overall though, I think those are minor, especially with solid familiarity with both squads.

My numbers for tackles do not completely agree with FIFA's, but they disagree inconsistently. Beasley and Pope have the same totals as the FIFA tally, while they somehow have 3 tackles for John O'Brien (I have 1) and 6 for Plasil (I have him at 3). During the Argie game, I had the exact same number for Sorin, but slightly different numbers for various others, so I don't know what to think there. I'm pretty sure though, that if we are using the same definition of what a statistical tackle is, there was no way Plasil had 6 tackles in that game. Oh well.

Edit: I have no idea why it's showing that huge space before the table. I'll try to fix it tomorrow and apologies all around in the meantime.

A Koller-Sized Can of Whupass

2006-06-12T16:46:00.000-04:00

In my group review, I listed a whole set of "ifs" that the United States needed to overcome if they were going to have a chance to get out of the group stage. " If Eddie Johnson can learn to stay onside, If Reyna and JOB can remain healthy and useful, If Run DMB can recapture his mojo, and If McBride doesn't end up concussed early in the event, then I think the U.S. has a reasonable chance to advance out of this group."

Arsenal fans have to be excited about this man's performance.

Unfortunately for me, my prognostication did not include the possibility of the U.S. midfield just not showing up to play. Convey, Beasley, Reyna, Mastroeni, Donovan... they were practically invisible during the first 45 and hardly got better in the second half. In fact, if you want to find the real difference in the scoreline, look no further than the gulf in quality between how good Nedved and Rosicky were vs. how good the U.S. team was. The terrible Czech twosome ghosted around the pitch like the defenders weren't there, touching the ball ever so briefly, then floating away on any number of very dangerous runs. They did this both with and without the ball, and that accounted for two-thirds of the Czech goals. As for the U.S. midfield, I have a giant scrawl on my notepad around minute 30 asking: "Where are the U.S. runs?" They were nearly nonexistent until a push in the last 20 minutes or so, but by that time the game was over. I would have expected cement boots to added as part of some nefarious dealings between the Italian squad and the mafia, but it appears the Czechs got to us first. For a team that supposedly prides itself on being more fit than their opponents, the U.S. men hardly gave any indication they were willing to run.

I'll be rewatching the match later in order to stat it, but I'm still not sure why we couldn't complete more than a single pass through the midfield. Did the lack of runs make us particularly easy to mark, or was it more that our first touch and vision were utterly lacking (and they certainly were)? Lewis and Pope had decent games in the back line, while Cherundolo worked but was overmatched. As for Gooch, seeing as how he was directly responsible for Rosicky's first goal, and was the closest defender to Rosicky during his second, plus the fact that he picked up a stupid yellow very early in the match, I'd say Gooch had a terrible game.

Did Landon play today? I must have missed that game.

As for the midfield, Donovan pulled his International Man of Mystery act where he disappears for loooong stretches of time, but only during matches for the USMNT. Reyna had one good shot, but also lacked any noticeable presence in the game, while Convey and Beasley were both overmatched and lacking quality when they were on the ball. This left perhaps the most consistent performer on the U.S. (Brian McBride) without any service whatsoever, thus completing the composition of football as still life.

With regard to the Czechs, they got off to a great start and their class was never really in question. The fifth-minute cross to Jan "Igor" Koller was a laser beam, and he smashed it home. However, since it looked like he outright tore his hamstring when he went down, I don't expect to see him again during the next month. At least he made his time on the pitch count. Nedved and Rosicky were clearly the best players on either team today, and despite all the chatter, Nedved looks a long way from needing to retire. The Czech defense also appeared stout, though it's a little tough to tell just how good they are because of how bad we played. I really thought we'd be able to run at them, but aside from a couple chances in the first half and then the final flurry at the end of the game, the Czechs were largely untroubled.

It will be interesting to see how the USMNT responds from what was essentially an unmitigated disaster. Everyone had been saying how confident these guys were before the Cup - can they now recover and get results against Italy and Ghana, or will this completely demoralize them? In spite of the ugly scoreline, they aren't done yet, but if they play anything like this against Italy, they certainly will be.

Random Questions
How happy is Arsene Wenger that he signed Rosicky for 7 meellion pounds before the World Cup?

How much did Onyewu cost himself with that performance? Will he even get to move to the Premiership now?

Are the U.S. on their way to finishing "last" in a World Cup, just like in 1998?

What exactly is wrong with the turf on the German pitches? Players in every single game have been losing their footing on sharp cuts, making me think they re-sodded every pitch before the games started, but not far enough before for the grass to actually take hold. The green grass looks great in HD, but the turf seems to be a real problem. We'll have to wait and see if the Brazilians have any problems with it tomorrow.

Shep Messing Must Die! and Scattered Thoughts From Weekend One

2006-06-12T11:28:00.000-04:00

Scattered Thoughts From Weekend One

Does it make me a bad person if I was wishing that Shep Messing, one of the U.S. commentators for the Argentina vs. Ivory Coast match, would spontaneously combust as early as the third minute? By minute 30 I was willing to pull a Van Gogh, but remained just rational enough to realize that even if I did it, I could still hear him! This was absolutely the most painful football commentator moment of my life.

Thank God for Tommy Smyth.
You see, one of the problems with being a young footballing nation is that the available pool of former players to hire as announcers is relatively small, so regardless of how hard you search, you invariably seem to end up with a few turds in the pool at the World Cup, especially at color commentator. John Harkes is actually decent, Marcelo Balboa is merely dumb, and Eric Wynalda, even though he's only in the studio, is almost too painful to watch, what with that giant ego balloon floating behind him on camera. But nothing compares to Messing, a former goalkeeper for the New York Cosmos, who feels it's his job to defile the sport at every available point in the game by supposedly giving your neophyte football fan a connection to football. The number of references and comparisons to how football is like some other American sport [baseball, basketball, NASCAR, cricket, rugby, etc ad nauseum]was too high to count by the time Saviola scored his goal, and we were only a third of the way through the game. Impossible to drone out, his commentary was made all the worse by the fact that I actually rewatched this freaking game so I could stat it (that stats article will be published here later today). I haven't put much research into this, but Messing might just be the dumbest graduate of Harvard ever to be on television. Where's Martin Tyler when you desperately, desperately need him? Thank God for Tommy Smyth.

Speaking of non-British football coverage, who the hell forgot to send the television graphics people the memo that order and position on the screen matter when publishing the lineups for the game. Every single game I have seen so far has had defenders and wingers scattered willy-nilly on the screen with no regard whatsoever to where they are actually playing on the field. Just because these guys all have "D" or "M" next to their names for their position doesn't mean you can throw their pictures on the screen wherever you want to. Central defenders and midfielders go in the middle... full backs and wingers go on the out side.

And you wonder why football has a hard time catching on in America...

"Le Toupee" has yet to play in the World Cup.
The announcers in the Iran vs. Mexico match were not terrible, and actually managed to provide two fantastic tidbits of information that I never would have known otherwise. Did you know that one of Iran's players is nicknamed "The Helicopter" for his prowess in the air? Even better, one of Iran's midfielders is nicknamed "The Carpet" due to his ability to "glide by defenders like he was riding a flying carpet from Arab mythology." Are you kidding me? The CARPET?!? This has to be the greatest bad nickname of all time, and has inspired me to add terrible nicknames to whomever I feel like for the rest of the Cup. I mean, obviously nothing I could possibly come up with will hold a candle to The Carpet, but typing Michael "Runaway" Owen or Zinedine "Le Toupee" Zidane will at least keep my spirits up. Maybe if I create enough terrible nicknames, I can get a job as a press agent with the Iranian National team.

Can you imagine what Peter Crouch would look like in the box with 20 more pounds of muscle on him? Why haven't his teams hired a full-time strength coach and dietician in order to make this happen?

Is it now a Pavlovian response ingrained into every footballer that they should raise their arm as soon as the other team scores a goal and hope the assistant referee raises his flag for offsides? Perhaps the arm raise means something completely different like, "Yep, we really suck," or is the universal football signal for, "Hi mom." These are things you start to wonder after having watched 8 matches in two days.

Just an FYI - I have to travel to South Carolina for an event this weekend, so blog updates on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday may be a little sparse. I'll try and make up for it when I get home.

Day 3 Analysis

2006-06-12T10:40:00.000-04:00

Day 3 had three games that started off great and turned into real snorers, though someone actually set the alarm for the players in Mexico vs. Iran, and they woke back up to finish the game well.

Netherlands vs. Serbia and Montenegro

Arjen Robben, lifesize French tickler.

In this day and age of professional football, it takes a lot to make one's teammates call you out as a dick and a ballhog as early as the first game of the World Cup. That's exactly what happened to Arjen Robben on Sunday, in spite of the fact that he scored the only goal of the match for his team, zipping past the S&M back line known for chaining up forwards and wingers in their dungeon of pain and making them cry like little girls. The Dutch were obviously nonplussed by this, since they can already get plenty of that sort of thing in the Red Light District in Amsterdam. This whole Robben thing makes me wonder what would happen if Ruud van Nistelrooy eventually gets sick enough of not being passed to that he walks up to Robben, smiles, and then punches him right in the nose. Can he get a card for that? Is he more likely to get away with it if the 60,000 fans in the stadium spontaneously break into a standing ovation?

Anyway, the through pass from Van Persie was great, and Robben's finish was clinical, giving the Orange the lead. After that, they clamped down a bit, protecting their lead on another hot day in Germany, while the S&M boys showed few sustained signs of life. They did force Van Der Sar into a couple of good saves (including the second crotch save of the tournament - ouch), but that was it and the Dutch were happy to walk out with a result. It was a better performance than England gave against Paraguay, but not much. At this point I was just happy there were two other games left to watch.

Iran vs. Mexico
I have to hand it to the Iran fans - if the game were only 70 minutes long, their team would have been considered very impressive, consistently testing the Mexican defense in a chippy first half and then failing to concede a second after Mexico looked like they would break the game open at about the thirty minute mark. I might have even felt bad about bagging on their team after such a display. Unfortunately, football games at the World Cup run 90 minutes long, and according to the scoreline, Iran just looked like another weak Asian team.

The tempo in this game was pretty good, but 46 fouls made certain there was little flow to the action. Iran's first goal came off of an obvious mistake by Sanchez where he failed to read the corner correctly and stood rooted in place while Golmohammadi got up to head it home only a yard or two away. It was amusing to watch Borgetti peacefully watch that ball sail over his head as well, almost as if he had paid for a ticket and had the best seat in the house. Thankfully for Mexico, Zinha came off the bench and brought their team to life, scoring one goal and setting up Bravo's little run. Without him, Iran might have gotten a draw out of this game, causing their fans to do backflips. As it was, Iran played pretty well, but Mexico got the win. No real surprise there.

Portugal vs. Angola

The old man still has quite a bit of life.

With how this game started and the previous scorelines between the two squads, I had high hopes for a bevy of goals. Unfortunately, after the fantastic Figo run that created the Pauleta goal, the Angolan defense woke up and managed to shut down Portugal for the remaining 86 minutes or so. It's not like Portugal didn't create chances - they did, and Ronaldo should have had at least a goal of his own - but overall Angola looked better than most pundits likely would have given them credit for. 49 fouls in this game also contributed to the snoring, particularly in the second half. I'd like to see players carded a little faster for persistent infringement in these games, since the "bump-my-pelvis-into-the-attacker's-back-and-knock-him-over, but-hold-my-hands-up-to-show-I'm-a-nice-guy, and-hey-ref-I-didn't-kick-him" foul (which is actually a much more normal looking word in German) is happening far too often.

I don't think Angola will threaten Mexico much, but they have a good shot at nipping Iran for the third spot in the group, which would be a result they could take home to the fans.

I wish I had more to say about these games... there simply wasn't enough going on to kick in the creative center of my brain. Hopefully today's ties will be better.

Day 2 Analysis

2006-06-11T01:07:00.000-04:00

England vs. Paraguay

Mike's game was last seen on the back of a milk carton.

This was your typically edgy opening round game from a very talented squad worried about screwing anything up and hindering their chances to get out of the group. It happens a lot to good teams and is the classic symptom of "slow starter" disease. England got a bit lucky with their goal, but the defense played very well, and while Paraguay looked great when attacking the ball, they looked pretty mediocre when attacking with the ball. The heat out there must have been killer, because both teams looked completely spent early in the second half – this will be something to watch with other 9AM Eastern time games in the Cup, should the weather stay hot.

I hate to say this (and many of you might not agree), but Michael Owen has got to be kicked to the curb in favor of virtually anybody. He hasn’t looked dangerous against a single team, either in the prelims or in the Cup. He’s either still feeling his injury or is washed up, because he’s hardly troubled a single defender and actually seems to disappear from the pitch for minutes at a time. You might have missed the memo, Mr. Owen, but your David Copperfield act is not welcome in the confines of the football field, and particularly not when playing for your national team (you Newcastle folks are desperate for anybody to root for now that Shearer has retired and are therefore much more forgiving).

Didn’t Sven see this in training for the last month? Did he just think England’s defenders were too good and that’s the reason why Owen looked terrible? Jermaine Defoe or Marcus Bent should almost certainly be in the squad... as it is, it looks like they are stuck with creaky Mike at forward for the rest of the group phase, a vision that should be enough to make 50% of England throw up in their mouths.

Anyway, English fans need to relax a bit and realize that the team did enough to win and some elements of the squad are clearly still waiting to gel. Just ask Sweden if they’d rather be lucky than good right now, eh? If the boys still look lethargic and out of sync after game 3, that’s when you need to start to worry.

Oh, and in other news, Czech superduper hottie Petra Nemcova is apparently dating the utterly despicable James "You're Beautiful" Blunt, making me officially wish I could light myself on fire and live to tell the tale. In slightly less bitter news, I'm a bit creeped out by Michael Davies trying to make pants happen. It's so very English and Mean Girls at the same time. I find myself missing "I don't do mingers" already.

Sweden vs. Trinidad and Tobago

Look God, all Zlatan wants is a f*cking goal, okay?

My first thought about this game is still, “God, Zlatan is silky when he’s on the ball.” Unfortunately for him, despite an unjust sending off on the part of the referee (Avery John’s tackle was hard but fair, but from the vantage point of the referee it looked like he just went in two-footed. Unlucky.), Zlatan’s teammates were not linking up particularly well with him until the last 15 minutes or so, when Hislop and Sancho came up big again and again for T&T. The announcers in the States said the Hislop was their man of the match, but I thought the game that Carlos Edwards had at right back was outstanding and probably would have given it to him instead, though Hislop was hardly undeserving.

As the tournament goes on, watch which teams get good service from the wings and which ones don’t, and you’ll find it has an enormous impact on not only the pace of the game, but also on the results. You can’t attack most teams down the middle anymore – not even on breakaways – because the central defenders are all humans crossed with bull embryos at birth that are very good at their jobs. Teams need to open up the center of the field by playing it wide and then either putting accurate crosses into the box, or simply letting their offensive players beat a wide defender and create havoc. Without good service from the wings, it’s difficult to win football games, and Sweden’s service against T&T was pretty miserable.

The other problem with the Swedes was that they just weren’t putting any shots on goal from their central midfield. Hislop is old. By not testing his movement except from point blank range at pretty much any point during the 90, they narrowed their options a bit too much for my taste, missing out on a possible chink in the surprisingly stout T&T armor. Yorke came up big by cleaning up balls in the center in the first 45, stifling Sweden's attack from there in the first half, and it turned out to be a great result for T&T. Sweden certainly should have won this game, and they’ve dug a big hole for themselves now by drawing what should have been the easiest match in the group for them. They better beat Paraguay on Thursday or they could be done.

In other other news, apparently Katherine Heigl recently told FHM magazine "The guy I'm dating now is just so fantastic in bed that half the time I just want to leave the handcuffs on and say: 'I've got to run a few errands, but don't you move - I'll be back!"

Where exactly do we sign up to be that guy? I mean, I'll even wait in line for this one, just tell me where to stand.

Argentina vs. Ivory Coast

Toure and his teammates are officially dreamy.

If you haven’t been able to tell yet, I’m 100% on the Elephant bandwagon. Just call me Hannibal and set me loose on Rome. Two Arsenal players was enough to make me sit up and take notice, but watching Drogba, Zokora, Boka, and the Toure brothers play was cause for my first crush of the tournament.

Ivory Coast are dreamy.

Unfortunately, they were a bit unlucky today while Argentina managed just enough class to hang on. The first goal from the Argies came off of a poor clearance by Drogba himself, and Crespo poached it home like he has hundreds of other times. What is it about certain guys who always seem to be in the right place at the right time, even if they rarely display amazing skill? Someone should chart where his goals come from and teach forwards positional movement based on the results - I'm absolutely certain it would have a positive effect on their scoring patterns.

Anyway, while the first goal was simply scrappy, the second was classic Riquelme with a side of assistant referee. Crespo was clearly offside when the pass came in, and while some might feel it was passive, he was close enough to the ball and attempting to get involved in the play, which would have gotten him flagged probably 80% of the time. Not here. The rest of the maneuver was brilliant, with Saviola timing his run to perfection and Riquelme’s touch softer than a newborn baby’s bottom. Juan would be so much more likeable if he’d just smile once in a while.

I expected Ivory Coast to be nervy after the first goal, but they never showed it, taking the game right back at Argentina for the entirety of both halves and creating numerous decent chances, including one that Abbondanzieri had to save with his crotch. Goalies are supposed to use every inch of their bodies to keep their team in the game, but those particular inches are above and beyond the call of duty. In the end, Drogba was able to get one back about ten minutes after the ref ignored a possible penalty for them, but it wasn’t enough and Argentina held on for the victory. Regardless of the result, IC made a lot of fans today, though I’m sure they’d trade every one of them for a berth into the knockout rounds. With good results against the Dutch and the Serbs, they still have a chance.

Oh, and with Heinze and Ayala squared away and (relatively) healthy in the back (they faded a bit towards the end), Argentina look very strong. We’ll have to wait and see if they continue to look that way should a future opponent do what Arsenal did in the Champions League, and completely mark Riquelme out of the game.

One final note before I sign off for the evening: For those who like a little beer with their football, Left Hand Brewing Company's Imperial Stout is officially amazing. That is all.

Day One Analysis

2006-06-10T17:35:00.000-04:00

Germany vs. Costa Rica

Spectacular goals by Germany made the difference in this giant appletini of a game.

This match went about the way I thought it would in terms of score differential, but 4-2 was more goals than anyone thought they might see. The Costa Rican game plan was particularly poor in terms of defensive execution. One thing I have learned from years of watching U.S. football is that if you are outskilled by your opponent, then you are probably going to have to outwork them in order to win. That means lots of running and pressuring the opposition with your midfield so that they don’t have time and space on the ball. Costa Rica didn’t pressure the Germans nearly enough, and both Lahm and Frings made them pay for it in spectacular* ways. The goal from Frings in particular will be part of the permanent highlight reel at the end of the tournament.

As for the Germans, remember the part a couple days ago where I was saying that if the Germans find a new Miroslav Klose, circa 2002 clone, the rest of the field could be in trouble? Well it looks like the new Miroslav Klose is… Miroslav Klose. As a whole, Germany looked very good in execution, particularly in finding space to attack up the left wing, and Ballack wasn’t even on the pitch. The bell has officially tolled for the rest of the field – the home side doth not sucketh.

In terms of defense, yes they let in two catastrophic goals on big and pointless screwups from the back line, but aside from those they didn’t even give the Ticos a sniff. I recommend they stop holding their wangs while attempting to play the offside trap and they should be fine.

New Klose, same as the old.

Random note: Did you have any idea that Wanchope had 43 goals in 67 international matches? Er, make that 45 in 68. Me neither.

Ecuador vs. Poland
Alright, that’s it… Poland no longer gets credit for anything except having a bunch of consonants in their last names and not enough vowels. They didn’t look awful in this match, but Ecuador looked spry and they were lethal when it counted. That certainly changes the tenor of the group, with Poland needing to draw or better with Germany, smash Costa Rica, and then pray the Ticos give Ecuador hell. Good luck with that, Mr. Krzylwiscrczk…

* Does anyone else see Jim Broadbent from Moulin Rouge in their heads whenever they type or say the word “spectacular?” Just me? I was afraid of that.

Must See TV

2006-06-10T11:22:00.000-04:00

It has been requested that I produce a recommended television schedule for those of you that either aren’t terribly familiar with who you should be watching, or don’t have enough time to figure it out. To keep this brief, I won’t do any write-ups of games, but I will break things down into three levels.

Level 1: The best you’ll see at the group stage. This includes matches between two top teams and pretty much every game that Brazil plays.

Level 2: This match has a couple of exciting players in it, but is probably between a power and a big underdog.

Level 3: It’s the World Cup – every game could be great. These matches are the least likely to be great matches, though you just never know. Any game not listed is a Level 3.

I’m working from the assumption that most of you don’t work from home and therefore have seemingly infinite time to watch football matches, so the grading is relatively strict. The England v. Paraguay match is on as I’m typing this, and though boring, would probably be classified a Level 2. All times are in Eastern, and all games in the United States can be found in English on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC. If you need more information, check out Soccer TV

Sat June 10
Noon – Sweden v. Trinidad. LEVEL 2
3PM – Argentina v. Ivory Coast LEVEL 1++

Sun June 11
9AM – Serbia v. Netherlands LEVEL 1
Noon – Mexico v. Iran LEVEL 2
3PM – Portugal v. Angola. LEVEL 2

Mon June 12
Noon – U.S v. Czech Republic LEVEL 1
3PM – Italy v. Ghana LEVEL 1++

Tues June 13
Noon – France v. Switzerland LEVEL 1
3PM – Brazil v. Croatia LEVEL 1++

Weds June 14
9AM – Spain vs. Ukraine – LEVEL 1
3PM – Germany vs. Poland LEVEL 2

Thurs June 15
Noon – England vs. Trinidad LEVEL 2
3PM – Sweden vs. Paraguay LEVEL 2

Friday June 16
9AM – Argentina vs. Serbia LEVEL 1
Noon – Netherlands vs. Ivory Coast LEVEL 1++

Sat June 17
9AM – Portugal vs. Iran LEVEL 2
Noon – Czech vs. Ghana LEVEL 1
3PM – Italy vs. USA LEVEL 1

Sun June 18
Noon – Brazil vs. Australia LEVEL 1
3PM – France vs. Korea LEVEL 2

Mon June 19
3PM – Spain vs. Tunisia LEVEL 2

Tues June 20
10AM – Ecuador vs. Germany LEVEL 2 (May decide winner of Group A)
3PM – Sweden vs. England LEVEL 1++

Weds June 21
10AM – Portugal vs. Mexico LEVEL 1
3PM – Netherlands vs. Argentina LEVEL 1++
3PM – Ivory Coast vs. Serbia LEVEL 1

Thurs June 22
10AM – Ghana vs. USA LEVEL 1
10AM – Czech vs. Italy LEVEL 1++
3PM – Japan vs. Brazil LEVEL 1

Friday June 23
10AM – Saudi vs. Spain LEVEL 2
3PM – Togo vs. France LEVEL 2

Final Predictions - Who Wins, Who Loses?

2006-06-09T11:23:00.000-04:00

Since I have reviewed the entire set of groups, I figured it was high time to break down the rest of the tournament, including a pick as to who will win the Golden Boot as the top scorer. Since the World Cup basically has the most complicated post-Group stage seeding possible, it may take some effort to follow along here, especially since there aren't any good, fill-in-the-blank brackets I've found online. I'll try to make this as painless as possible.

Left Half of the Bracket
A Winner = Germany
B Runner Up = Sweden

C Winner = Netherlands
D Runner Up = Mexico

E Winner = Italy
F Runner Up = Croatia

G Winner = France
H Runner Up = Ukraine

Right Half of the Bracket
B Winner = England
A Runner Up = Poland

D Winner = Portugal
C Runner Up = Ivory Coast

F Winner = Brazil
E Runner Up = USA

H Winner = Spain
G Runner Up = Switzerland

Round of 16 Matchups

Germany Vs. Sweden
See what I mean about this World Cup being much tougher than in years past? Right out of the gate, the host nation face a very dangerous opponent in Sweden. Can Zlatan go all Zlatan on ze Germans and knock the home squad right out of the cup in the round of 16? I think a lot of it will depend on the health of Michael Ballack and whether or not the Germans can find a scoring punch in 2006 like Klose gave them in 2002 (see also: Lucas Podolski). This one could go either way, especially with a hostile crowd of 60,000 Krauts screaming for blood, but I think the Swedes finally show their skill and send the Germans crashing out.

About "Krauts": My buddy Tybuc refuses to call his ancestors by any other name. Since he is the only fan actually rooting for Germany that I know, I feel at least modestly obliged to work in Kraut once per German game.

Netherlands vs. Mexico
Oddly enough, this was a friendly just a week ago where the Dutch won 2-1. I'm not sure who in either football association thought that was a sensible friendly to play, but play they did, giving them a nice preview of possibilities to come. Then again, maybe the Mexican side saw Group C and figured there was no way the Dutch were making it out alive... good beats, that.

This is actually one of the best matchups in the round of 16, and I'd be a lot more excited about it if they hadn't played the damned friendly. The rematch will probably be a bit rougher in the tackles than that one, but I'd expect the scoreline to look approximately the same. This prediction also holds true if it's Argentina to make it out of this Group instead of the Dutch.

Italy vs. Croatia

Italy's hopes require a dearth of spitting and all of Totti's limbs to stay in tact.

As I noted yesterday, Italy haven't lost since 2004. Assuming Totti doesn't do anything stupid during the Group stages and miss this match or have his leg come flying off while making a particularly exciting run, thus ending his World Cup run and causing rampant speculation about whether the whole incident was part of some Italian betting scandal, they aren't losing here. However, if Totti does lose a limb before or during this match or perhaps finds himself unable to control some involuntary response from his salivary glands, then a spry and underrated Croatian team should give them a run for their money. This is the match where Italian striking will really come under the microscope. I think they (finally) pass.

France vs. Ukraine
Old, talented and creaky vs. mostly old and creaky. I can't bet against France just yet, though a lethal Shevchenko could spell disaster for Zizou and the boys.

England vs. Poland
With how I have the Groups playing out, the right side of the bracket is certainly the sexier side of things, with England, Portugal, Brazil, and Spain all still dancing starboard. Of course, should anyone stumble and bit and finish second in their group instead of first, you will get a dramatically different picture of matchups in the round of 16, so whatever. This matchup isn't particularly spicy... though Poland on a good day or at home can be a scare for England, I don't see it happening here. England have too much power in the midfield and in the back, though we'll still have to wait and see whether England's strike force is lethal or merely footballing curiosity.

Portugal vs. Ivory Coast
The stone best matchup of the Top 16 pits one of the most exciting attacking Euro squads against one of the most exciting attacking African squads. This is an absolute pick em, and while I'd love to see Ivory Coast continue deep into the tournament, I think the Tugas just manage to pull this one out.

Brazil vs. USA
The only way the U.S. wins this game is if Kasey Keller reprises the game where he made Brazilian striker Romario say, "That is the best performance I have ever seen from a goalie in a match that I played in," while the U.S. managed to win 1-nil. This time, it will also require Eddie Johnson to finally learn how to stay onside and pull his Flash imitation, blistering past the aging Brazilian backs for 2 goals.

What? Skeptical? Alright fine... It could happen, but that possibility is based on a) The U.S. even making it out of the group stage and b) mostly wishful thinking. Too many weapons, too much firepower, too much Brazil in this one. It won't be a laugher, but they aren't losing it.

Oh, and if this is the Czechs instead of the U.S., it pits #1 vs. #2 in the FIFA rankings in the first knockout round. NICE SEEDING, people...

Spain vs. Switzerland
This is where qualification mindgames come into play. If Spain finish second in their group, they are over in the other half of the bracket playing France right here, setting up a snorer of a Ukraine vs. Switzerland match, while letting Spain avoid Brazil in the round of 8 in favor of taking their chances with Italy. I don't think that's a particularly worthwhile trade, especially since France is a tougher opponent to face than Switzerland.

Spain win this one on overall class and make it to the final 8.

Round of 8 Matchups

Sweden vs. Netherlands

Italy vs. France

England vs. Portugal

Brazil vs. Spain

Something to note here is that this is more Euro-centric than I anticipated. Recent trends in football suggest that there will be at least one more South American team in here and somebody from Africa or Asia will likely make it this far. You could obviously switch the Dutch with the Argies and satisfy the first condition, but the second requires Ivory Coast to beat Portugal or South Korea/Japan to at least make it out of the group stages and then beat a really good team in the first knockout round.

I'm not going to do any analysis on these picks, since they are far in the future and require a billion things to go right for them to happen. If this is the final 8, it will make for some absurd games to watch.

Round of 4 Matchups
Netherlands vs. Italy

England vs. Spain

Yep, I picked Spain to upset Brazil. I couldn't bring myself to be yet another person picking Brazil to make it all the way to the finals, and I think Spain have a real shot this year.

If this boy plays, England might go all the way.

The Finals
Italy vs. England

Winner: Italy.

Golden Boot: Fernando Torres. Wayne Rooney, if healthy, will be runner-up and Didier Drogba will be in the mix.

Regardless of what happens - enjoy the games. It will be a long four years before the next one comes around.

As for Football kNuts, you can continue to expect daily updates, including game analysis and the start of some statistical tracking that I think you won't find anywhere else (unless FIFA has been hiding them and finally decides to publish everything for the World Cup). If that is the case, expect me to merely do analysis on them, thus saving me about four extra hours of work a day.

(Please let that be the case.)

World Cup Defenders to Watch

2006-06-08T22:36:00.000-04:00

I feel like I should clarify something before we continue this line of posts. The Goalkeepers in the last post were not meant to indicate "The 5 Best Goalies in the World" or anything like that, they were simply five names that I feel will be interesting to watch in Germany. Now four of the five are World Class, but Barthez isn't even the best keeper on his squad, he's just crazy, thus making for good television.

I guess I should have made that a bit clearer from the start, but the same holds true for today. What follows are not necessarily the five best defenders in the game, but are instead five guys to keep an eye on during your World Cup viewing over the next month. (And considering there are 4 times 32... carry the one, make a left at Albequerque... a lot more worthwhile defenders than goalkeepers, that's important to note.) In short, for one reason or another, these fellows are ones you can expect to enjoy watching when they light up your big screen for the next month.

Rafael Marquez

Believe it or not, these guys were teammates at the club level.

Having won the Champions League with Barcelona less than a month ago, Rafael is the most successful Mexican footballer on the planet right now. He's certainly not the biggest central defender you will run across, but he's absolutely one of the most technically proficient and reads the game better than almost anyone else at his position. His club side is admittedly blessed with a much higher talent level than the Mexican National Team, so it will be interesting to see if he is able to lead them to greater success than in 2002, or if they are once again destined for a T16 finish. Regardless, Marquez is the poster child that contradicts the growing notion that you have to have a pair of man mountains in your central defense in order to win at the club and international level.

He also gets my vote for best defender to wear a ponytail.

John Terry
FIFA lies about Terry's stats, because it says he's not quite 6 feet tall, and I've seen the man play much larger than that. Doublechecking the info on Soccernet tells you he's 6'2", but even that doesn't account for Terry's ability to neutralize every striker to come his way, regardless of size, quickness, or ability. This guy plays against the best the world has to offer on a weekly basis and yet you hardly see a time where he's embarrassed or out of position. That bodes well for England's chances in the World Cup, as does the fact that Terry is extremely dangerous coming forward on free kicks and corners. Even though he's only 25, this guy is the captain of Chelsea, and is the obvious choice to succeed David Beckham as captain of England when Becks decides to hang up his magical right boot.

Gabriel Heinze

Heinze is critical to Argentina's success because he lets their skill players attack.

I picked Argentina to crash out of the Group stage at least partly on the knowledge that this guy has been injured for most of the season and likely would not be fit for the start of the Cup. Now comes late word that he is fit and raring to go, meaning the Argies could be a lot better off than initially anticipated. Heinze played all of four matches for Manchester United last year before blowing out his knee, so it's entirely possible that red devil fans will see more of him in Germany in one month than they did all of last year at Old Trafford. He's one of the keys to the entire Argentinian attack because his presence and sure tackling at the back enables Sorin to make his magical runs on the wing.

Sammuel Kuffour, Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Eboue
Ghana and Ivory Coast are unfamiliar names at the international level, but these three players are hardly virginal when it comes to the pressure of big matches. Kuffour is Ghana's man in the middle, and at age 29, is one of the oldest Ghanaian players on the squad. A veteran of multiple Champions League finals with Bayern Munich and now a fixture at the back with AS Roma, Kuffour is expected to lend experience to a Black Stars team that has a legitimate chance of upsetting some teams in the group of little death.

As for Toure and Eboue, they are part of the Arsenal team that set records for total defense in this year's Champions League, and now will look to try and get the Elephants of Côte d'Ivoire past Argentina, The Netherlands, and Serbia and Montenegro and into the knockout rounds. Without them, Ivory Coast might be hopeless at the back, but Toure is the absolute stones when it comes to both skill and physical ability, and Eboue's relentless attacking up the wing was a revelation to an Arsenal squad beset by injuries early in the year. Watch these guys play just one or two games summer and I guarantee it will be hard not to root for them.

Carlos Puyol
I think this is Spain's year, and if that's going to be the case, Puyol will play a major part in their success. At the club level, he's Marquez's partner in central defense for Barcelona, but unlike Marquez, Puyol is blessed by a raft of talent around him at the National Team level. Puyol looks like he would be equally comfortable on the football or as the tatted-out lead singer in some sort German death metal band, but the hard exterior masks a technical skill on the ball you don't expect out of the big guys in the back.

Roberto Carlos

Carlos is the very model of the modern attacking left back.

I swear this guy should be too old to play anymore, but his bio says he's only 33, and his form suggests he is about five years younger than that. Roberto Carlos has been terrorizing opponents of Brazil since 1993 by giving them a tireless left back capable of both attacking and defending for an entire game without missing a beat. His overlapping runs are just one of the reasons why Brazil is such a difficult team to defend, but it's an important one, and will be again if Brazil are to samba home with their sixth World Cup. He also has one of the most legendary and lethal left boots in the game, which, with Ronaldinho's right, gives Brazil a decidedly unfair 1-2 punch (erm... kick?) on free kicks. I expect that all real football fans already know and either love or loathe Carlos, but that doesn't make him any less watchable or entertaining as a player.

Dots

2006-06-08T20:28:00.000-04:00

Things I have discovered during my two weeks of experimentation...

Hits are a lot harder to come by when starting from scratch than I expected, and maintaining them is at least as difficult. This is partly exacerbated by the fact that my experiments have hit a wide variety of places that I can't track and also partly because... well, it's hard. I shall, however, persevere.

If hits are hard to come by, comments are a glass of water in the desert. Of the 8 group reviews, the pieces I thought were the best hardly drew any interaction from readers, in spite of saying some funny things or taking controversial stands. I can think of a number of reasons why this happened, but the two most likely culprits are likely reader apathy or ignorance. I'm not sure how sophisticated the audience is in terms of footballing knowledge. You are all dead sexy though, so chalk one up for the good guys.

My friends in my normal line of work are of no help here because most don't care about sports, and those that do don't care about soccer. Heh and heh again.

There are more Iranians than expected on the bigsoccer.com boards and boy do they get pissy when you bag on their team.

These are the same people whose country is a) hardline muslim and b) trying to develop nuclear weapons technology with the entire civilized world watching them. Perhaps I should have said nicer things...

Forum idiots are actually everywhere. This is actually a comforting fact to learn, sort of like the fact that the sun rises every morning in the East, the weather gets warmer in the spring, and (minus sports) TV sucks in the summer. Thankfully the latter is alleviated by bittorrent and TV on DVD. Unfortunately, there is no cure yet for stupidity.

For a while I was sending out messages to a few LJ communities about when I updated and what the current topic was about and that was good for a variety of hits. However, then somebody syndicated this feed and a couple of community users complained, so I stopped hitting the communities and direct hits died. Time to go back to square 1.

Speaking of which, while I like Blogspot's formatting and ease of use, their servers fry for 3-4 hours around noon every day making updates and modifications impossible, and it's certainly not designed to be community friendly. Le frown.

I have a lot more stuff to write before noon tomorrow, so perhaps I should stop my jabbering and get to it.

But NOT before I point out that Ives Galarcep is writing an outstanding blog from over in Germany and like Michael Davies, it is now required reading. Don't pause in your clickage, I wouldn't send you any place that didn't rock. Including this one [YouTube Link for those at work]... I love the Japanese. (For those who care, he won this fight.)

Goalkeepers to Watch

2006-06-08T13:45:00.000-04:00

To kickstart discussion among the more knowledgeable football fans out there and to provide a stepping off point for the neophytes, I figured I'd do a series where I focus on players to watch at particular positions. Thus, you can expect me to hit goalies, defenders, midfielders, and forwards, and then conclude with kids who I expect to make a big splash this time around. Time is getting short, since I still need to produce my final predictions and a television schedule of good games to watch, so without further ado...

Let's kick this pig!

5 Goalkeepers to Watch

Petr Cech

The lipreaders among you will know that Cech is actually saying, 'Oy, get yer head out of yer arse!'.

Cech is perhaps the number one contender for the mantel of Top Goalkeeper in the World. His performances for Chelsea have helped lead them to back-to-back English Premier League titles, while his run for the national team has helped raise the Czech Republic to 2nd place in the ever-specious FIFA rankings, directly behind #1 Brazil. He's rarely spectacular until he needs to be, but he almost never makes mistakes, and has plenty of "spectacular" in his bag of tricks should it prove necessary. Only 24, you can expect to hear a lot from him for at least two more World Cups, barring serious injury.

Kasey Keller
When it comes to football, American players rarely get respect equal to their skills. Keller is one of the best goalkeepers in the world and has been for years. He was a lock to start for the USMNT in 2002 until Blackburn giant Brad Friedel hit an insane run of form and Arena decided to go with the hot hand. It turns out going with the albatross at that time was a good move, but it kind of sucked for Kasey, especially since he was 32 at the time. Turning 37 later this year, you'd expect that Keller might have lost a step or two, but his performances for club and country this year have been as good as ever.

The U.S. will need him to be great in order to get out of their group. Of course, when you produce a clean sheet nearly half the times you play at the international level, great starts to seem routine.

Gianluigi Buffon
Fun fact time: Italy hasn't actually lost a match since October of 2004, winning 10 of 17 international ties during that time. All you Italy haters can take that stat, stick it in your pipe, and smoke it until your head explodes. Buffon has generally been the first-choice keeper during that period, though he missed significant time last fall due to a dislocated shoulder (ow!). A consistent starter for Parma (back when they weren't shite) and Juventus in Serie A since 1995, Buffon - when healthy - is as good as they come. Expect him to prove that consistently in Germany.

Oh, and any writer out there making a buffoon pun off of this guy's last name should be shot.

Dida
Brazil's keeper situation used to be fun to watch, since they were usually very young or very old, frequently dodgy, and almost certainly the weakest link in the starting eleven. Current AC Milan stopper Dida seems to have changed all of that. Occasionally inconsistent, Dida has been the first choice keeper for Brazil since shortly after France 98, during which time they have won a host of international tournaments. The 33-year-old makes up for any inconsistencies in his game by making amazing saves with alarming regularity. Let's face it - everyone will be watching Brazil's matches anyway... you might as well know who the guy on the lonely end of the field happens to be.

Fabien Barthez

Mama always said, 'Crazy is as crazy does.'

Goalies in any sport tend to be a crazy lot, but Fabien Barthez is actually certifiable. A World Cup winner in 1998 for France, since that time he has lived a roller coaster life at the club level. At one point he played for English juggernauts Manchester United, and almost ended manager Alex Ferguson's career due to health reasons*. Turns out he just needed to find a more sane goalie, which he did, and is back to his cantankerous, Scottish best. Not content to cause palpitations simply at the manager and player levels, last season Barthez managed to get a six month ban for spitting on a referee.

In short, you never know what you will get from Barthez, which is exactly what makes him fascinating to watch. You have to be brilliant to still have a career after everything Barthez has pulled, but 2006 will assuredly be his final ride, and I for one, am quite excited to see exactly what kind of ride that will be.

*This might not be exactly the way things played out.

Reviewing Group H

2006-06-07T13:24:00.000-04:00

Here we are, the last group on the list. Due to the cruelty of the alphabet, these are teams 29 through 32 in the list. Don't let that get you down though, they are still number one in the hearts of their fans. In fact, their undying love is what will keep the fans going during those long, hot hours in the German sun. It's not the cocaine, and the free hookers, and the endless comps they receive, or the hours of partying deep into the moonless night... No, it's thoughts of you, sitting at home on your couch or with your mates in a bar, hanging breathlessly on every kick of the ball in the hope that they can bring home that golden tin foil ball of a trophy.

Well, that and the prayer to the gods of commerce that you'll pay the licensing fee for their specific kit, and that maybe a good performance will help them land an enormous contract with the likes of Chelski, ManYoo, or Real. But at least you are in the equation somewhere, right? And that's what matters.

Spain

If all goes well, this man will be Spain's new baby-faced assassin.

Spain is so deep that they could field an entirely separate starting 11 and still expect to get out of the group stage. In fact, the problem with Spain is never that they don't have the talent to win - it's always there, and often present in much greater helpings than their opponents. No, the problem for Spain lies elsewhere, wherever the gossamer substance can be found that distinguishes the champions from also-rans. To wit, Spain has never finished higher than fourth in World Cup competition, in spite of sporting one of the best leagues in the world, and masses of young talent coming up through the ranks. The pedigree says they should be challenging Brazil and Italy for footballing supremacy, so it must all be in their heads... for fifty-sic years.

Whatever the case, Spain are the team that should cause even slightly-over-the-hill folks to hate them immediately, because they are young, brilliant, and beautiful. Starlets Cesc Fabregas and Sergio Ramos are likely to feature prominently in the center of the pitch, while Jose Reyes can be found galloping up and down the left wing, and Fernando Torres will partner the classic Raul in the striking lineup, giving them an extremely youthful core group that should feature prominently in the years to come. The question is not whether the kids can play, but whether they can succeed with the spotlight of the World Cup burning tan lines around the red and gold of their jerseys. Considering the fact that most of them play prominently for clubs in the Champions League on a weekly basis during the fall and spring, I'd say they are likely ready. With Iker Casillas, Carlos Puyol, and Marco Senna providing experience and iron to what has in the past been a slightly flopsy side, I think this might finally be the year Spain makes it back to the semifinals or better.

Ukraine
Former AC Milan and new Chelski (signed for something like 30M pounds - someone must stop them soon...) star Andriy Shevchenko is no longer a spruce goose (he'll turn 30 later this year), but he is realizing his dream of captaining his side in a World Cup, something viewed as practically impossible as little as four years ago. Ukraine have very little footballing history, but none of that mattered when they managed to finish at the top of their extremely difficult UEFA qualifying group, beating out Turkey, Denmark, and Euro 2004 champs Greece in the process. Over the years, Shevchenko has proven himself to be a star at the highest levels of the game, and it will be exciting to see what he can do for his National team at the World Cup.

Though Ukraine aren't a very deep squad, their starting lineup is very strong, so their advancement out of the group stage will likely depend on the health of their stars. Unfortunately both Sheva and defender Serhiy Fyodorov are nursing at least moderate injuries, meaning they could be in some trouble. Midfielder Sergei Rebrov looks to be back in form after returning to the Ukraine from a series of disastrous transfers around Europe, and Sheva understudy Voronin is pretty solid himself, so even without the great man, they should still be dangerous. If this group were a little deeper, I'm not sure I'd pick them to advance, but Tunisia and Saudi Arabia are nearly as weak as Iran and Angola in Group D, meaning Ukraine still have a good shot at causing trouble during the elimination rounds.

Tunisia
Manager Roger Lemerre (he of the soul-crushing French Cup performance of 2002) said that Tunisia's dream is to reach the final 16 teams. This seems like a solid assessment of potential reality. He is setting a difficult, but potentially obtainable goal for his squad while admitting that it is still likely out of their grasp.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not completely writing off Tunisia here. If Ukraine can't keep their stars healthy, the 2nd spot will be ripe for the plucking. This is especially true since Tunisia are actually pretty decent, beating the best Africa has to offer at home, and often pushing stronger teams like Argentina in tough matches on neutral pitches like in the Confederations Cup in 2005. They even managed to beat Australia at that same tournament, which isn't amazing, but can't really be sniffed at. Dutch prognosticator Thomas Rongen, who has nearly identical to me in his picks for advancement, sees Tunisia actually making it out of this group, but I'm not feeling it. Do, however, expect them to put up a good fight.

Saudi Arabia
Let's face facts here. Asia is the weakest of the FIFA Federations by far, and Saudi Arabia are perhaps the worst of the teams to qualify from there. This team is simply not in the same league as the rest of the teams that made it to the World Cup finals and a draw or two would be about the best they can hope for.

Who Advances
1. Spain
2. Ukraine

Reviewing Group G

2006-06-06T09:52:00.000-04:00

The penultimate group of the World Cup yields the last exciting group in the bunch. France are far from the best they have been, but are still quite good. The Swiss are unknown but are better than most people know. South Korea are looking to build on their performance at home in 2002 and Togo is... Uh, Togo is…

We’ll come back to Togo.

France
France are no longer the juggernauts they were in 1998 and 2000, but they still feature some of the best players in the world, even if some of them - like Zinedine Zidane, Fabien Barthez, and Lilian Thuram - are clearly in the twilight of their careers.

Henry will look to cement his legacy in Germany.

At this point, every discussion of France should begin with Thierry Henry. The amazing Arsenal man is (in my opinion) the best club footballer in the world, terrorizing defenses with his pace and precision passing, in addition to the fact that he’s nearly as good as Beckham and Carlos from a free kick. The only knock on Thierry’s game is that he isn’t great in the air, which is why it would benefit if Arsenal would move for someone like Ruud van Nistelrooy to partner him in attack (though I think Wenger is hoping that Van Persie will get there soon enough). If Djibril Cisse had given the slightest clue that he were still any good at Liverpool this season, France might be better served partnering him with Henry, but for now it looks like they’ll be putting pace first and playing both Saha and Henry up front to start. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that – they’re both very good.)

What’s interesting, however, is that in spite of all of Henry’s gifts and his World Cup trophy from 1998, he still has a lot to prove at the international level. He mostly featured as a super sub in ’98, and has rarely managed to replicate his club form when wearing French blue. If he wants to be counted among the greatest ever, then he’ll need to have a goalscoring rampage in Germany like he has in the Premiership.

France’s defense is a bit old and Barthez has the potential to be shipped off to the loony bin at any point, but they are still quite solid and can be relied upon to shut down most teams for long stretches of time, especially with Makalele playing Defensive Midfielder. Right now Makalele is probably the best in the world at that position. The rest of the midfield is good or better, but questions persist as to just how much gas Zidane has left in the tank. Expect to see Franck Ribery spelling him as a sub and perhaps for an entire game during the group stage, should they clinch an elimination spot early.

It pains me to root for Frenchies, but when it comes to football, my love affair with Arsenal forces my hand. The French remain a helluva a team to watch.

South Korea
“Kims and Lees for all!” should be the motto of this squad, as they are the single toughest team to keep track of on a name-by-name basis. You think I’m making some pithy joke here, but out of 23 players making the trip to Germany, 8 are Kims and 5 are Lees, accounting for more than half the squad. Ukraine and Serbia and Montenegro get my vote for least pronounceable names for English speakers, but Korea presents an entirely new set of challenges. I wish announcers of South Korean games the best of luck in keeping things straight.

This Cup should provide a decent indicator of whether or not we can expect them to linger in the middle of the pack of world football teams, or whether they will once again sink back into the relative unknown when they are not playing in front of the teeming masses in Seoul.

Korea’s best player has to be Ji-Sung Park, who plays for Manchester United at the club level and is a living example of Brownian Motion. The man never stops running, and while his finishing leaves something to be desired, his skill on the ball and in flight is undeniable. If Korea is to get out of the group stage alive, they’ll need Ji-Sung to have some huge games. The rest of the squad are tough to peg, since they play primarily in the J League or at home in Korea, but 2002 hero forward Jung Hwan Ahn will be back and in a starting role this time around, and it will be interesting to see what sort of progress the intervening four years (and subsequent departure of Dutch mastermind Gus Hiddink) have provided for him and his teammates.

Switzerland

Let's face it - the Swiss are better known for producing Hingis than they are for their football.

In the sporting world, the Swiss are perhaps best known for producing amazing downhill skiers and introducing Martina Hingis to a testosterone-filled world. They are not known as a footballing power, but this could be their year. South Korea and Togo are underpowered wild cards, meaning the consistently impressive Swiss are likely one of the favorites to advance out of this group.

Their defensive line is massive and can be expected to dominate anyone in the tournament in the air, so as long as they can prevent world class strikers from running by them, they should do well at that end of the field. The midfield aren’t particularly well known at the club level, but they play for some pretty squads (Milan, Cologne, Rennes, Hamburg), and have proven to be a match for the likes of Ivory Coast and Italy in their warm-ups, lending their qualifying run some street cred. Expect Swiss hip-hop to be big in 2007... As for the striking lineup, pay particular attention to Alexander Frei, who sports a goal ratio of better than one per every two international matches. (Which is good, by the way. Henry and Raul are slightly worse than that, Ronaldo is a bit better, and Adriano sports an absurd 23:32 ratio, which is astounding in the modern era.) Like many other teams in the tournament, if the Swiss can score goals with consistency, they can expect to advance.

Togo
What’s that? We’re back to Togo already? Bugger all! This team might be a bit more fun if their country was named Toga instead, I can tell you that much. (And now that I have made that observation, I will not be able to resist thinking of them as Toga for the rest of the event. Welcome to my life.)

Alright, here’s what (admittedly little) I know. Togo is a central West African nation ranked 61st in the world in the ridiculous FIFA world rankings. They split their two warm-up matches, losing to Saudi Arabia at a neutral site (not a good sign), while managing to demolish the mighty Lichtenstein one-nil. Their primary scoring threat is Emmanuel Adebayor, who failed to impress much in limited appearances at Arsenal this year.

That’s it – I’m out. The well is dry in terms of facts on the Togoese. Togoans? Togoats? See, this is why I'm not some columnist on a major website or newspaper - those lads would figure that out prior to posting. Me, I just ask the tough questions and hope my readers are savvy enough to answer them.

Anyway, they are not advancing out of this group.

Who Advances?
1. France
2. Switzerland

P.S. paranoidandroid was kind enough to provide syndication for Livejournal users here: http://syndicated.livejournal.com/footballknuts/

I don't know exactly what that means, but I assume that those of you who do will be pleased.

Reviewing Group F

2006-06-05T11:51:00.000-04:00

Football has changed dramatically since this man (Pele) was a star.

In case you haven't noticed, this isn't your daddy's World Cup. There are only two real stinker groups out of eight, and when you compare it to who played in 2002, you'll find that the level of competition has risen dramatically in the past four to eight years. That's great for fans of the game in general, but might be a little discomforting for those of you rooting for specific teams. The path to the World Cup is harder than it has ever been before, with at least one or two difficult matchups in almost every group, and then a virtual guarantee that every team in the knock-out will be loaded with talent.

I mention all of this because Group F is where perennial favorites Brazil reside. It is now tradition for football know-nothings to answer Brazil to almost any question posed to them. Who will win the World Cup? Brazil. Who has the best players in the world? Brazil? Which team is most in need of a good orthodontist? England... no wait, Brazil!

The problem arises with the fact that while Brazil are stellar in all facets of the game, their "football is life" culture producing more brilliant players than any other country, the gap between Brazil and the rest of the world has been narrowed dramatically, and not just at the top. The Italys, Spains, and Argentinas of the world are no longer the only ones who can give Brazil a scare - these days it can also come from the likes of Croatia, Ghana, and even the United States. No longer is it the case that Brazil can expect to win by a comfortable two or three goal margin for every game in the tournament. They can now expect to be tested nearly every step of the way. And while you can generally expect Brazil to field a team with more "wow, did he really just do that? Is that even possible?" players than any other squad, these days nearly every team in the Cup will have a few stars on it who are perfectly capable of dropping jaws with their fancy feet. So while Brazil might well still be the answer to all of those questions and more, it is now unfair to the rest of the world if those of you who have a clue about football don't at least pause for a moment before holding up a yellow and lime shirt.

Brazil
As usual, Brazil are loaded. Their back line will likely feature one of the oldest sets of starters in the event, but with names like Roberto Carlos, Juan, and the ageless Cafu, they tend to fall more on the side of "crafty" than "creaky." The midfield is patently ridiculous, with Emerson starting over Gilberto Silva in the destroyer role (a bit of a surprise, honestly), and then Ze Roberto, Kaka, and Ronaldinho running the show. The two starting forwards look to be skilled battering ram Adriano and Ronaldo, a player I fully believe is past his prime and should be benched for Robinho, but who always seems to come up big around World Cup time. This squad is clearly one of the favorites to win the Cup, but can't be considered the favorite, if only because this Cup is being played in Europe, meaning they should face more than a few hostile crowds and skilled sides along the way.

Whatever the case, Brazilian matches are required viewing on the same level as Michael Jordan playoff games and Tiger Woods majors.

Japan

We have. No. MAH-BLES!

This team is a mystery, if only because they did surprisingly well at the home World Cup in 2002, are the top team in Asia, but now must perform against an even tougher set of opponents far from home if they are to gain lasting respect. It sounds like the setup to a bad martial arts flick, but that's the reality that they will be living this summer in Germany. However, if this gets turned into some anime program and makes millions, I want a cut.

Japanese players have generally failed to excel in European squads, in spite of a number of high profile moves since 2002. Additionally, the quality of play in the J League is always in question - it's not on TV here in the States and there aren't many reliable eyes out there feeding us info on the internet.

Japan's pre-Cup warm-ups haven't clarified much - they nearly beat the Germans on German soil before ending with a slightly disappointing draw, but lost to Bulgaria, and were only able to muster a nil-nil draw against Scotland, while beating lowly Malta by only 1-0. Oh, and who knows what Nakata's public flogging of his team will do to their morale and cohesiveness. In fact, about the only thing you can count on regarding Japan is that their players will have some of the coolest hair of any players in the Cup.

My buddy Eli described the reaction of Japanese football fans to this World Cup thusly:

"Man, another World Cup... this is great! We have a good team and after 2002, you can expect big things from... wait a second. What group are we in? With who? Sonuva..."

Croatia
Euro geography post-Soviet Union can be difficult to follow. For example, I have to actively stop myself from typing Czechoslovakia at least once per mention of the Czech Republic, and approximately 0% of adults not living in that area could correctly place the Balkan states on a map, and that includes me. What I do know, however, is that Croatia made the semifinals in 1998 (corrected) and won their qualifying group in UEFA for 2006, beating Sweden twice in the process. That's a pretty solid set of results right there, and in spite of a tough group, I think you can expect them to advance here as well.

Expect Prso, Babic, and Simic to be the stars of note, with like Bosko Balaban providing a spark off the bench, or getting starts at forward if anyone gets injured.

Australia
I love Australia. I've been there twice to cover events and I'll willingly go back any time my schedule and bankroll allows me to. The women there are both fascinating and hot, the men are awesome as well, and Aussie Rules Football is one of the most kickass sports on the planet. Just thinking about Australia gives me cravings for Kangaroo filets that are sadly unanswerable here in the U.S. However, when it comes to world football, I think the land down under is about a decade away from being really good at the game.

They have some solid players on the squad in Viduka, Emerton, Kewell and Schwarzer, and I really like Tim Cahill. However, their domestic league isn't good enough yet to give them much depth beyond those players. Do not expect pretty football from these lads. They will be there to grind out results and are at a disadvantage in terms of skill to the rest of the teams here, meaning you will probably see a bevy of yellow cards and a couple rugby tackles in their three group games.

This group is tougher than I thought it was when I first looked at it, at least partly because Croatia are sneakily good, and Japan and Australia are better than they have ever been. However, I don't think either of those teams have enough firepower to trouble the favorites.

Who Advances?
1. Brazil, obv
2. Croatia

Some thoughts after watching England beat the pants off of Jamaica...

2006-06-04T21:21:00.000-04:00

The England thrashing was surely cathartic for the national team and the nation, provided no one took a serious knock from it. Jamaica aren't exactly the toughest opponents these days, but 6 goals in an international friendly against a squad that is not San Marino or Tongo has to be celebrated.

This will not come as a surprise to our readers from Europe, Japan, or the Philippines, but World Cup warm-ups for the United States were shockingly chaste. No pants were beaten off, few goals were scored, and the U.S. were not particularly impressive. Considering the quality of their opposition, you'd be hard-pressed to say they even made it to third base except against Venezuela, a country better known for producing baseball players (particularly crazy pitchers) than stellar football. Perhaps Arena is keeping his boys on a boxer's diet and denying them sex before the big day...

Now that I think of it, Ghana also beat the pants of the Jamaicans in a warm-up match (4-1), leading me to one startling conclusion: Jamaica is slutty.

I completely approve of the absence of Ricky Martin singing any official World Cup 2006 songs from this year's event.

Considering how things normally end for the English, I'd be more than a little concerned that NO ONE on England can actually make a penalty.

What the hell happened in the Netherlands vs. Australia match? Did an Aussie Rules football game break out? 3 Dutch stars injured, one Aussie sent off in the 61st minute, and a 1-1 draw? If I was Van Basten, I'd be looking to stick somebody right about now.

It might just be the end of the world as we know it.

Wait a second... the World Cup is being held in Germany. Does that mean David Hasselhoff is singing the official song of the 2006 World Cup? God help us all.

I would have told you it was impossible last week, but as of now, I am officially aboard this Peter Crouch-in-the-starting-lineup express. What surprised me initially was just how well he hooked up with the midfield via feet, something that didn't happen enough when he was playing for Liverpool this year. He also presents matchup problems for almost every defense, and creates a focal point for the offense to build around up front. In fact, he gives England exactly what I had assumed Gerrard was going to give them, but which never materialized. He's clearly in form, and any scoring with his feet should be considered bonus. Sven is clearly in the right in starting him... I just hope the pressure of the English press doesn't get to him.

Any robot dances are simply the cherry on top.

I'm not really sure what it is about goal celebrations and touchdown dances, but they are two of the very few things that make my wife interested in sports.

Last but not least, the "winning" goal in the Columbia vs. Poland friendly from last week. I have been the guy on both ends of this one in Rec leagues (it was extremely windy!), but I can't imagine the pain of screwing up at this level. Jerzy Dudek probably looks pretty good about now.

E is for Excitement

2006-06-02T14:05:00.000-04:00

Man, after yesterday's stinker this group is like a breath of fresh air. Widely hailed as the second toughest group in the tournament, you'd think they'd call this the Group of Little Death or something, but I guess most writers are afraid of leaving their readers unsatisfied. Not me. Nossir, I have five more weeks worth of dick and fart jokes just primed for the right opportunity. This Cup may not have anyone named Boniface N'Dong in it, but it does have a Pekerman, a Bonera, and a Pimp(ong), and I'm sure that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Italy
In spite of my natural inclination to begin with the United States, it's probably best to start with the team expected to win this group, especially with Czech injuries mounting faster than ... perhaps it's best if we just leave that one unsaid.

For whatever reason, with the Italians everything starts from the back. They regularly seem to have one of the top Goalkeepers in the world (this year, as in 2002, it's Gianluigi Buffon), and assuming their back line is healthy, it will probably feature the likes of Nesta, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, and Camoranesi - all world class players capable of playing with skill or with brutality, depending on the tenor of the match. The midfield is slightly more suspect, with Pirlo and Gattuso likely locks, and Totti filling the playmaker role, assuming he passes his fitness tests. All of those players are fully capable of putting in impressive displays, but they are also capable of disappearing from a match without any warning.

If Italy is "on" they are certainly one of the best teams in the Cup. If Toni or Gilardino can give them the scoring punch they seem to have lacked in recent years with Inzaghi and De Piero, then I'd expect the Italians to go all the way to the semis, but if they don't, it could be a short, painful trip home for Marcelo Lippi and the Azzurri.

United States

This man needs to right his game if the U.S. are to have a chance.

I'm a huge fan of the U.S. National Team, having watched or Tivo'd every game I could get my hands on since 1998. In fact, World Cup 2002 was my excuse to buy a Tivo, since the games started at o-f*ck-thirty in the morning and I had a real job back then. Bruce Arena is likely one of the more skilled managers on the planet (I'd love to see what he could do in Europe), and MLS, like the Mexican league, is better than anyone gives it credit for being, though perhaps not as good as Sam's Army would like to believe. The other thing the U.S. has going for it is a consistent flow of top flight keepers that are among the best in the world and who are fully capable of keeping them in matches they should not be in. I've seen both Friedel and Keller perform superhuman feats over the years and fully expect Kasey to be capable of doing so again at least once in Germany.

That said...

It's difficult to see how American soccer has progressed much in the last four years. Once again it seems we are reduced to praying that Claudio Reyna and John O'Brien are healthy and can stay that way. Landon Donovan may be quite a bit better than he was in '02, but Damarcus Beasley seems to have regressed dramatically. The American defense is likely better than it was then (I loved the Goose, but every game with him in there was cause for heavy drinking and heart palpitations - not exactly the start to the morning you are looking for when you still have to go to work), and while you could technically say that we're ever-so-slightly better at almost every position, the word is now out and people have real expectations. The fact of the matter is, the U.S. has yet to develop anyone approaching a Footballer of the Year caliber player, they don't have anyone scary to play up front, and I think they'll feel the pressure this year completely unlike in 2002.

Four years ago, Beasley with the ball at his feet was a terror. These days he doesn't frighten anyone, and that should scare fans of this team. Without Damarcus keeping the wing open, teams will be able to stuff Claudio and Landon in the middle, which will force the fullbacks to make more runs than they might otherwise, thus opening the way for lethal counterattacks from two European teams used to doing just that.

If Eddie Johnson can learn to stay onside, If Reyna and JOB can remain healthy and useful, If Run DMB can recapture his mojo, and If McBride doesn't end up concussed early in the event, then I think the U.S. has a reasonable chance to advance out of this group, especially with the best of the Czechs ailing. However, those are a few too many ifs for me to feel comfortable about their chances. 2010 still seems like the right target date for any thoughts of the U.S. becoming a force to be reckoned with in the footballing world.

That said... I'll be wearing the Red, White and Blue on every match day, and scaring my cats with shouts of joy and pain.

The Czech Republic

Any mention of Czech football is really an excuse to show Czech supermodels.

I was in Prague in early May and would have bought a Czech National team jersey while I was there, if only it weren't for the fact that they are in the same group as the U.S. The quality of Czech football in recent years is nearly as high as the quality of Czech women, which is really saying something.

However, the quality of Czech football rests on the health of their top-line players, which right now is sketchy at best. Here's a list of everyone held out of the friendly on May 30th: Vladimir Smicer, Tomas Glasek, Tomas Rosicky, Pavel Nedved, Petr Cech and Tomas Ujfalusi. Smicer is gone for good, while strikers Koller and Lovenc, who both played a half in the friendly, are recovering from serious injuries, meaning their stamina will likely come into question as the tournament progresses. The rest of them are expected to see play in the Cup and should be ready for the first match against the States, but if they aren't, the Czechs could be in real trouble.

If they are all healthy, expect Rosicky, Nedved, Koller and Cech to be the stars of the show. Cech might just be the best goalie on the planet right now, while the first three are the sources of any offensive fireworks the Czechs might develop. They are going to have a tough fight to get out of the group, since every squad in it has at least a chance (or better) of beating them should they let their guard down.

Aside: Speaking of Czechs, can anyone answer me one of the great mysteries of the world and tell me why the Czech Republic of all places consistently breeds some of the hottest women in the world. I've been to the country in person and verified it for myself - the average woman there is like a 6.5 with peaks hitting "Oh my God!" more often than you could possibly believe. And yet the men these fantastic ladies are with are UGLY. How do they keep breeding hotties? Someone needs to do medical research and figure this stuff out. (Oh, and if you are single, male, and have a chance to visit Prague, by all means take it.)

Ghana
According to a Yahoo report "Ghana beat Jamaica 4-1 in a friendly on Monday, prompting their Serb coach Ratomir Dujkovic to declare: 'We are getting better each game and by the time of the World Cup we will be ready to beat any team.'" He might just be right. I've already tabbed the Ivory Coast as one of the African Squads to watch this time around, but Ghana have posted some impressive performances in pre-Cup friendlies and feature a host of players from talented European club squads in the mix, including Chelsea, PSV, Roma, Borussia Dortmund, and Fenerbahce.

The big names you probably already know are Eric Addo and Samuel Osei Kuffour in defense, Michael Essien in the midfield, and Matthew Amoah up front. Like most African teams, these guys typically play a rough style at the National level, and their players are particularly fast on the wings and in attack. Just like Ivory Coast, Ghana face a nearly impossible group to advance out of, but if you are looking for a long shot with a chance to place a sheckel or two on at the bookie, this might just be your squad. It's not as if it would be any crazier than picking Senegal to advance out of their group in 2002.

Who Advances
1. Italy
2. United States

(Which may be wishful thinking, but I learned never to bet against a team you are rooting for some time back. It only causes you pain, a smaller bank roll, and a whole lot of cursing in the long run.)

(Yes, that was a cop out. Yes, you may flame me for it.)

Go Here, Read This

2006-06-01T21:43:00.000-04:00

In an effort to recognize those who are better at this than even myself (ain't humility grand?), and at the risk of losing my entire audience, I am obligated to link you to the beginning of Michael Davies' most welcome World Cup blog for ESPN.com. While you are there, you may as well check in and read his 2002 blog archive too, since it's good for a few guffaws and more than a handful of belly laughs. The majesty and the glory can be found here (just please come back... *sniff*): MDavies at ESPN.com

Group D Stands for Dog

2006-06-01T14:02:00.000-04:00

D stands for Dog, which is what this is, especially after reviewing the madness that is Group C. You have one good matchup between the two top seeds in Mexico and Portugal, and then you get those two teams kicking the crap out of Angola and Iran. Some pundits believe Iran is a spoiler, but I'm having none of it. Yes, Iran can play the game, and probably play it better than at any point in their history, but can they best either Mexico or the Tugas?

Portugal

Male model or merely one of the top wingers in the world? You make the call.

Portugal hasn't made it out of the group stage since Eusebio was in the starting lineup. That was 1966. Since that time they have underachieved dramatically compared to how much talent was in their squad. This is the year everything changes. Portugal are freaking loaded. The back line is stocked with Chelsea players Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho plus Porto's rock Ricardo Costa. The midfield features an aging Luis Figo, but surrounds him with amazing winger Cristiano Ronaldo, Barca's Deco, plus Costinha and Simao Sabrosa. In fact, they have too many good midfielders to start them all, but that just means they are covered should anyone get injured (or not fully heal from injuries in time for the Cup). The front line will see Pauleta on display in a formation where Big Phil Scolari typically uses a lone striker and expects his attacking midfielders to join the fray. There's plenty of cover behind Pauleta as well, should they need it.

Perhaps most importantly, Portugal is headed by 2002 World Cup winner Scolari, who led Brazil to their 5th championship and is now trying to bring Portugal to their first. His experience should lend them a calm at the top that will likely see them into the second round, and could possibly see them make a run for the Cup reminiscent of Eusebio's team back in '66.

Mexico

The hardest head in Mexico will not be making an appearance at this year's World Cup.

Year after year Mexico toil away, winning far more football games than one might expect, and year after year they are disrespected by the world footballing press. As an American, I have to hate Mexico at least a little bit, but the truth is that they are very good at the game and anybody with a clue knows to fear them if they have to play them. One of the reasons 2002 was such a huge deal for the U.S. was not only did they advance beyond the group stage, but they beat Mexico in the first elimination round, a team that absolutely dominated them in the decade prior.

So Mexico has few world stars, but everything starts with Barcelona's hard man Rafael Marquez in central defense. The midfield is entirely homegrown, but are similar to the Germans in that, while you've probably never heard of them, they are likely good enough to stifle all but the most gifted of stars. Up front will probably see Jared Borgetti of Bolton team up with Villareal forward Guillermo Franco. Legend-in-his-own-time/mind Cuacoughcough Blanco was once again left off the National team side, despite being regarded as one of the best Mexican players of the current generation.

In the last few years, Mexican football has gained enough respect among world managers to see some pretty big clubs give Mexican League stars a shot in Europe. Another good Cup showing will likely see that trend continue, which will be good for both Mexico and fans of the game.

Iran and Angola
Look... I know that there are human interest stories regarding these two squads. Angola is a war-torn country that makes its debut at the Cup finals this year, which might just be enough to get people to stop fighting for at least a month as they crowd around radios and TVs. And I also know that Iran are rapidly becoming diplomatic pariahs for their continued pursuit of nuclear fuel and weapon technologies, and supposedly that creates an interesting tension since the Cup is being held in one of the developed Western NATO nations. However... I don't really care about any of that. All I care about is whether or not they can play great football, and the truth is that they probably don't. Can they prove me and everyone else wrong when the matches finally start in German? Absolutely. Am I possibly going to care about them until that point? Not at all.

So the Tugas and Mexico can expect a relatively easy group stage, but that's where the fun ends. The winner here faces the second seed from Group C, while the runner-up gets the reverse pairing, meaning you can expect fireworks in both of those clashes, but very few until that point.

Who Advances
1. Portugal
2. Mexico

Commercial Break

2006-05-31T22:04:00.000-04:00

From time to time throughout the Cup, I'll toss up some commercials that struck my fancy in the past couple of days. This should be especially useful to those of you who pilot DVRs and tend to miss the best commercials while hitting the fast-forward button. (Note: I fit this profile myself).

First you get a Nike commercial starrying French master Thierry Henry playing some street ball. I especially like the moonwalk dribble and the fact that Eric Cantona has to be subtitled despite the fact he is actually speaking English.

Next we have an absolutely absurd display of skill from Ronaldinho. This one starts slow, but picks up once he finally puts the damned shoes on.

And finally you get one of the ESPN spots, which apparently are all narrated by members of U2. I can't embed these or link directly because of how they have the pages setup. All of them are good, but I particularly like the one for Anthem and the Tartan Army. One World. One Game.

Reviewing Group C - The Group of Death

2006-05-31T12:57:00.000-04:00

The Group of Death. In literary circles, this is the equivalent of a short story by Edgar Allen Poe (though he'd clearly call it the Group of Red Death), while in sporting terms, this is like of a March Madness Regional bracket that sports Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Gonzaga. Argentina, Ivory Coast, The Netherlands, and Serbia and Montenegro could all expect to likely advance in any other group, but one of the few certainties you can rely on in Germany this year will be that four teams will enter this group, but only two of them will come out with their title hopes still in tact.

In fact, looking at this objectively, I'm not sure it's possible to develop a harder group that works within the rules, even if you tried. Argentina are the second best team in the second best qualifying region. Ivory Coast are probably the most skilled team in Africa. Serbia and Montenegro beat Spain to finish first in their qualifying group out of UEFA, and the Dutch... well, the Dutch merely managed to beat out the Czech Republic in their UEFA qualifying run, the same Czech team that are supposedly second in the ridiculous FIFA world team rankings. If I were one of the coaches in this group it would have taken me days to stop yelling at the FIFA official in charge of this debacle.

In short, it should make for great television.

Argentina

The Argentina of World Cups past.

Long-time fans of the Detroit Pistons, this is the team for you. Riders of the Barry Bondswagon both pre and post-Steroid controversy, you too will probably also feel at home rooting for the Argentines. Perhaps the most consistently infuriating team of World Cups past, Argentina routinely fields a squad of fantastically talented divers and thugs. What I mean by that is that they are talented divers and they are talented thugs, and they are even quite good at kicking the football around too. Being good at all three makes them fantastico. This year the emphasis is probably a bit more on talented and less on thug, with the diving jury still out and waiting for actual games to take place before they are inevitably forced to render a guilty verdict. I guess what I am trying to say is that this team is utterly despicable and typically fascinating to watch. Expect more of the same this year, in spite of rumors that the new wave of Argentinian players are deeply interested in fair play. That's like Paris Hilton coming out and telling the press she's deeply interested in monogamy.

When it comes to offensive players, the Argentinians have some of the best. Riquelme, Messi, Sorin, Tevez, and over-the-hill but still frisky Hernan Crespo are all names you should know, because they will constitute the bulk of the attack. Riquelme and Messi are probably the two "stars" of the last year, though any one of those players could have a huge event at the Cup - they are all capable. The back line for the Argentines is a bit more of a question, with both Roberto Ayala and Gabriel Heinze coming off serious injuries that derailed much of their seasons. If they are fit and rested, Argentina has little to worry about, but if they are not, you could see some of their matches in this group devolve into shoot-outs, which should strike a bit of panic into the hearts of their fans.

Certain friends of mine will also be ecstatic to know that their head coach's name is Pekerman and he was heavily involved in the youth squads in Argentina before coming to coach the National side.

Don't hate them because they are cheaty - love them for the beautiful football they create.

The Netherlands
The Clockwork Orange. Good flick or underachieving football squad? My Nederlands jersey says both, so is this the year when the Dutch finally return to prominence and prove they are a world footballing power? Well, if they had a good defense and an easier group, I would say yes. Instead they merely have an unknown defense, but one that conceded a miserly three goals during qualifying, meaning the answer is a definite maybe.

Can babyfaces like Kuyt revive the fallen Orange?

The rejuvenation of the Dutch machine has come at the hands of a full-blown youth movement, with relative babies Dirk Kuyt, Arjen Robben, Rafael van der Vaart, Jan Kronkamp and Robin van Persie joining vets like Ruud van Nistelroy, Mark van Bommel, Gio van Bronckhorst and Phillip Cocu to form the latest version of up-tempo total football. Gone are Kluivert, Davids, and Seedorf - ego barges that didn't bring enough skill\energy\usefulness to the revamped squad, and if their qualifying run is any predictor of future success (it isn't, but that's just a stats thing), good riddance.

The question at this point is simply whether the kids can withstand the jitters and make it out of the group stage, because if they do, they have a shot of beating anybody in the tournament. Dutch strikers are particularly lethal and bullish in front of goal, so it could only take a couple of good chances against even the staunchest defense for them to net enough goals to win. The three goals given up in qualifying give me faith in their defensive scheme and players, and I think Van Bommel is one of the best destroyers (Defensive Midfielders designed to disrupt opposition passing and movement in the middle of the pitch) in the tournament. If the back and middle can find enough passing alleys to link to the men up front, I think they make it through.

Ivory Coast
I love this team. They got a bit lucky to make it to the Finals, but that's behind them now and like Senegal in 2002, Ivory Coast shows every indicator of being the team from Africa that makes a name for themselves. The defense is fast and very talented, plus they love to link up with the midfield via overlapping runs, creating real marking issues for the opposition. The strikers are physical and also talented, and the midfield, though I have never seen them in action, are rumored to be as good as the rest of the squad.

Didier Drogba, though at times a cheaty bastard for Chelski, is unstoppable when he's on, and the defensive setup has two men from the Arsenal squad that set a record in the Champions League for consecutive minutes without allowing a goal. As long as their midfield is as good as billed, this team is downright scary. They clearly aren't going to be the favorites coming out of this group, but I think their chances are just as good as anyone else here.

Serbia and Montenegro
I confess that I know almost nothing about this team except they finished at the top of their UEFA qualifying group and they have once-great-but-currently-disappointing striker Mateja Kezman on their squad. Other people with a clue say that they are just as tough as the three teams listed above, it's just that no one knows that yet. I guess we'll find out two weeks from now whether that's the case.

So what we have here is a group where each and any of the teams would likely advance out of any other group, but all four of them are stuck here battling it out together. The online betting sites seem to indicate that the Netherlands and Argentina are the teams to beat, but I'm calling for an upset on this one, and one that would surprise a lot of people if it actually occurs. There will be tears in Buenos Aires when all is said and done.

Who Advances
1. The Netherlands
2. Ivory Coast

Reviewing Group B

2006-05-30T10:44:00.000-04:00

England, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Sweden... two of these teams are making it out of the group, and one of them will certainly not be T&T. Not that I have anything against the islanders, but they aren't of the same caliber as the other teams here. As for the other three, England is the strongest team in the group, but they have... how do you say? Issues...

England
I had this team rated in the Top 4 B.W.R. (Before Wayne Rooney broke his foot.) They have the best midfield in the tournament, and one of the strongest defensive lines to back it up. Show me a person who wouldn't trade their starting four for Lampard, Gerrard, Beckham, and Joe Cole, and I'll show you someone who is either crazy, a liar, or doesn't know what they are talking about. As for the defense, provided either Rio or Sol have shaken off their bad patches from the last two years, England's central defense will be a pair of man-mountains that compete at the highest level in club competition every week (they'll be playing with John Terry, who's about as good and as steady as they come). With a rejuvenated Ashley Cole galloping up the left wing and likely Neville/Jamie Carragher on the other side, there's a lot to like here.

No mention of football and shagging could ever be complete without a picture of Posh.

Of course, that's before one is forced to consider the metatarsal problems of Roonaldo, whose injury and likely (eventual) withdrawal from the squad leaves England sporting a desperately anemic front line. With Wayne Rooney in the squad, you had to feel that as many as 9 out of 11 players in the starting lineup were good or even great, which is an excellent ratio for any national team, even that of Brazil. Rooney has developed into one of the most feared strikers in the world during his brief tenure at Manchester United, and perhaps even more scary than his ball striking is his ability to find his teammates and create easy goals for them. The prospect of watching Rooney plus that most excellent midfield was virtual Viagra for an entire nation of football hooligans - this fantasy squad caused the most shagging to occur in the British Isles since Austin Powers was in his prime. Sadly, it will take a miracle for Rooney to be fit enough to play in any of the matches prior to the semifinals, which means someone is going to have to step up if they are to make it to the latter stages of the tournament.

Michael Owen is supposedly playing some of the best football of his life, but the oft-injured one will have to actually stay healthy in order to feature prominently in any runs at the World Cup. Speaking of runs, you can't very well have a speed striker with as many injuries as Owen has had and expect them to continue performing at a high level. Owen is now 26 and in his peak performance years as a player, but I'm skeptical that he will be able to contribute meaningfully for club or country from here on out. The dodgy hamstrings may have done him in well before his time.

As for the rest of the English strike team, Theo Walcott might be the next great teenager (Wenger's player evaluation is generally pretty sound), and he certainly looked fast during the tune-up game I watched, but fast does not equal good or lethal, and at least one of those traits is required. On the other side of the coin Peter Crouch is more of a striking curiosity than a force to be reckoned with. There will be some teams out there who can't handle this gigantic collection of skin and bones, but I don't think Crouch will trouble most of them, just as he generally failed to trouble most teams in the EPL this year as well. England manager Sven Eriksson floated the interesting move of playing Gerrard as a forward, which I have every reason to believe is a good idea, but it leaves me wondering who will cover for him in midfield. Aaron Lennon is wicked fahst out on the wing, but I'm pretty sure they want to use him as a high energy sub late in the game instead of expecting a full 90 from the man.

Along with the questions about the forward line also come questions about the final line of defense as well. Paul Robinson is a good sight safer than David "Safe Hands" Seaman (who likely cost England their match against Brazil in 2002), but he's still young and can be inconsistent at times. Sitting behind Robinson is disaster-waiting-to-happen David "Calamity" James (he makes the spectacular saves, but seems prone to fucking up the easy ones) and completely unseasoned ~~Robert Green~~* Scott Carson(?), meaning if Robinson somehow goes down, things become very interesting and very edgy in the goalmouth for the English National Team.

Paraguay
Every World Cup Paraguay seems both interesting and enigmatic and every World Cup they are both interesting and enigmatic. Goalkeeping legend and lunatic Jose Luis Chilavert may be gone (as far as characters go, he was awesome), but the kids they have in the squad this time should prove entertaining, especially if Roque Santa Cruz (one of my favorite players in Germany) can overcome the tendinitis in his knee and perform at full strength.

I haven't had a chance to watch this squad at all in the run-up to the WC, but they have made it out of the group stage in each of the last two Cups, and even in a tough group, I wouldn't put it past them to do so again. I think they play spoiler in this group, and if the Swedes slip at all, Paraguay will be through to the knockout rounds to cause problems for other teams.

Sweden

Lagerback helps train the Swedes with his psychic powers.

Ah Sweden, the land of good men, hot women, and excellent budget buys whenever I need some young players to fill holes in my Football Manager squad. Sadly, Swedish teams in reality (these days, anyway) never quite seem to live up to their Football Manager potential.

Oh don't get me wrong - Sweden has a lot of talent at its disposal, whether that comes from big guns Larsson, Ibrahimovic, and Ljungberg, or lesser knowns like Markus Allback and Kim Kallstrom. It's just that the talent rarely seems to be harnessed quite well enough to come out on top in big competitions. I'm pretty sure they are good enough to make it out of this group, but in order to do that, they will have to avoid anything resembling their 3-0 thrashing against Ireland back in March, or their two losses against Croatia during qualifying (their only two non-wins, by the way). Their fate will probably be decided by the performance of Zlatan and company on June 15th against Paraguay.

Trinidad and Tobago
Dwight Yorke was part of a lethal strike force for Manchester United back when I first started watching football. That was eight years ago. He's been rubbish for the last four, he turns 35 this year, and it says a lot about T&T that he is still in their striking lineup. Goalkeeper Shaka Hislop is better than he typically gets credit for, but the rest of these guys are hardly good enough to make a dent on the world stage.

Who Advances?
1. England
2. Sweden

*Green was injured pretty badly in England's B Team friendly loss to Belarus over the weekend.

Reviewing Group A

2006-05-29T12:06:00.000-04:00

And so it begins. Over the course of the next eight days or so, I will begin reviewing each Group in the World Cup and discuss my impressions of each squad in the mix, highlighting some of the stars and giving my predictions as to how things will play out. For those of you reading this, it should serve as a jumping off point for lively discussion in the days leading up to the biggest sporting event on the planet. For those of you not reading this, it should serve as yet another indicator in the fall of modern society (as if you needed one after the second term of Bush II commenced).

Germany

Do not taunt Der Frankenkeeper!

You can't talk about a World Cup without discussing the home squad. Regardless of where the WC is held, the home team is a virtual lock to make the elimination rounds and this year is no different, especially since Germany is the home team. The Germans weren't involved in UEFA qualifying, but they were the runners-up in the 2002 Cup and don't look to have fallen off much since then. Michael Ballack is probably one of the Top 10 Midfielders in the world and the Germans always seem to have a rock keeper between the posts - this year it will be Arsenal man Jens Lehman over ageless Frankenkeeper Oliver Kahn - but once you get past them, what else do you have?

The answer, it seems, is a whole bunch of players who play in the Bundesliga. Like... all of them (minus Lehman and Chelsea backup Robert Huth), in fact. Yes, Ballack just signed a huge deal to come play in the English Premier League and yes, the Bundesliga is generally considered a very solid league in terms of world footballing strength, but it's stunning that so many of the German stars stay home. My theory about football players kind of meshes with my theory about world cuisine: If your home-cooking really is good, then the people of the world will realize this too and will happily buy your products when you make it easy for them to do so. This explains why you don't see a lot of successful restaurants basing their menus on "the fine cuisine of Great Britain" and it also explains why Brazilians are welcome additions to nearly every footballing league in the world. Are Germans xenophobic and hate to play overseas or are they merely not good enough to make managers in other leagues to want to buy them? Whatever the answer, Germany is winning this group by a mile, though whether they can repeat their '02 performance is another question entirely.

Poland
Poland finished a close second to England in a very easy UEFA qualifying group. They managed to score 27 goals in 10 games there, netting ten more times than the Brits, and tying the Dutch for the fourth highest total in UEFA. I think they are ready to have a breakout World Cup, and this group is just weak enough to let them do that. Polish names are impossible to pronounce and difficult to remember, but my guess is that by the end of the Cup, you'll try to remember at least a couple of them.

Costa Rica
The Tico Ticos are not a bad squad, but they aren't a particularly good one either. Playing in the same region as the U.S. and Mexico means I get to see them a on TV a couple of times a year, and they are great at home against almost anybody, but frequently miserable on the road. Every team in this division is better than every team in CONCACAF but the U.S. and Mexico, meaning every team they managed to beat to get to the World Cup in the first place. They will need luck and some very strong play to get enough points to make it out alive, and I don't see it happening.

Ecuador
Yes this team qualified through South American qualifying, which is generally pretty tough, and yes, they seem to have a very solid defense. But they can't seem to score many goals away from home, and have generally been in a goalscoring drought since September of last year. On the other hand, they beat both Argentina and Brazil at home and played them tough away. In short, I have no freaking clue what to think of this squad, making them the wild card of the group. I guess that's part of what makes the World Cup so much fun. If they can find their scoring touch again, I see them as the dark horse of the group, but where the goals will come from is at this time a mystery.

Who Advances?
1. Germany
2. Poland

The Introduction

2006-05-29T11:51:00.000-04:00

Greetings and welcome to Footballknuts. The purpose of this site is to provide an entertaining and lucid look at the happenings in the football world (soccer for all the Americans), with a special emphasis on the World Cup this summer. It will start with a review of each group in the tournament, and once group play starts, it will also include discussions of the day's events.

In addition to hopefully proving more entertaining than the boring, straitlaced commentary you will get elsewhere in the football world, this blog will include more discussion of statistics in football than you might be used to, including some statistics that you likely have not seen tracked anywhere else, though it certainly shouldn't drown out the more amusing writing and chats along the way.

Read. Comment. Enjoy.

--TK

About Ted Knutson: Previously employed as a graduate student in Political Economics, Database Administrator, and Project Manager, Ted Knutson has been a professional writer and editor for around four years now. He has worked as a contractor for Wizards of the Coast, Upper Deck, Beckett Magazines, and StarCityGames.com, and has been paid to travel all over the world and cover events for the companies listed above. He rediscovered his passion for football after the 1998 World Cup and has been an avid fan ever since, primarily following the English Premier League, with samplings of whatever else is televised here in the United States. For those who care, his favorite team is Arsenal. Along with his other projects, he will be in England in 2007 in order to write an as-yet-untitled book about the EPL.